I've come to grips with the idea that it is likely time for a change at LSU. However, finding a coach that can replace the success Miles has had will not be an easy task, and any who thinks otherwise is naïve.

Is there a coach out there that can improve upon what Miles has done? Sure, but the problem is that the vast majority of coaches, particularly the realistic candidates, are likely to underperform Miles.

Here is what history can tell us about how often the grass is greener on the other side:

Nebraska 2003: Fired Frank Solich (.766 W%) and hired Bill Callahan. AD said he would not "let Nebraska gravitate into mediocrity" with Solich. Callahan was fired after 4 seasons and a .551 W%.

Tennessee 2008: Forced Phillip Fulmer (.745 W%) to step down. The Volunteers have hired 3 coaches since then and sport a .482 W% since Fulmer was let go. Of note is the fact that Tennessee still sports a higher all-time winning percentage than LSU, but it did not insulate them from mediocrity.

Florida 2002: Steve Spurrier left after posting a .813 W% at Florida. It was a premier program in the country at the time. The Florida AD was turned down by Mike Shanahan and Bob Stoops. Ron Zook ultimately landed the job and proceeded to go 23-14 over three seasons at a school that took six years to lose 14 games before Zook got there.

Michigan 2007: Forced out Lloyd Carr (.753 W%) for his lackluster record against Ohio State (6-7). Hired hot-shot Rich Rodriguez and limped to a 15-22 record over the next 3 seasons. Followed up Rich Rod with Brady Hoke, who went 31-20 from 2011-2014 including 1-3 against Ohio State.

Alabama 1997: Even Alabama is not infallible. After Gene Stallings retired in 1996 with an .805 W%, it took Alabama 10 seasons, 4 coaches, a .553 W%, and a textbook scandal to get Nick Saban. That record includes their forfeited wins. Officially, Alabama had a losing record during that span and a .486 W%.

All top programs at the time, all failed miserably with their new coaches.

In fact, since 2000, I can only find 4 programs that have replaced coaches with .700+ W% and had even greater success with the newcomer. Furthermore, no program has ever forced out a coach with a winning percentage higher than .700 AND found a successor who generated better results.

TCU "replaced" Dennis Franchionne (.714 W%) with Gary Patterson in 2000 after Franchionne took the Alabama job. Patterson has led TCU to a .750 W% since then.

Boise State in 2000 replaced Dirk Koetter (.722 W%) with Dan Hawkins, who posted a .828 W% from 2001-2005. Boise found even greater success replacing Hawkins with Chris Petersen who produced a .885 W% from 2006-2013.

Miami in 2001 replaced Butch Davis (.718 W%) with Larry Coker, who went 60-15 from 2001-2006 for an .800 W%. Coker was fired in 2006 after posting consecutively worse seasons each year. Although Coker improved upon Butch Davis' winning percentage, I don't think anyone would consider Coker a success story.

And finally, LSU in 2005, who replaced Nick Saban and his .750 W% with Les Miles, who has posted an .775 W% since then.

Long story short, any rational observer can see that there should be significant concern over the ability to replace Miles with someone who will generate greater success.