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Why don't all teams throw Hail Marys on every 4th and Long?
Posted on 1/29/15 at 9:55 pm
Posted on 1/29/15 at 9:55 pm
Would it not be the same as a punt, with the added probability of your WR coming up with it? I can't imagine a teams win probability would hurt too much if the other team "intercepted" the pass around the 10-15 yard line and got tackled, since you will have just as many guys down there as you would with a punt.
This post was edited on 1/29/15 at 9:57 pm
25
Posted on 1/29/15 at 9:56 pm to alabamabuckeye
It's only the same as a punt if intercepted. If it fall incomplete, other team gets the ball where it was spotted on 4th down. It would be very bad.
Posted on 1/29/15 at 9:57 pm to alabamabuckeye
Because most Hail Mary passes end in incompletions and gives up field position.
Posted on 1/29/15 at 9:57 pm to alabamabuckeye
Why intercept it? Knock it down and start with great field position every time.
Posted on 1/29/15 at 9:57 pm to alabamabuckeye
You Alabama fans sure do know your football.
Posted on 1/29/15 at 9:57 pm to FooManChoo
True, but say you are on the 40 yard line. I think it would be a defensible choice to go for it in that situation. Sorry, should have made that caveat, obviously being backed up on your own 1 wouldn't be ideal.
Posted on 1/29/15 at 9:58 pm to alabamabuckeye
Please convince Saban to start employing this strategy.
Posted on 1/29/15 at 9:58 pm to alabamabuckeye
Please tell Saban to do this next season
Posted on 1/29/15 at 9:58 pm to alabamabuckeye
quote:
Would it not be the same as a punt,
Posted on 1/29/15 at 9:58 pm to alabamabuckeye
Yea you definitely had a brain fart here. It's thrown incomplete & you give up a ton of field position.
Posted on 1/29/15 at 9:59 pm to BayouBengals03
quote:
You Alabama fans sure do know your football.
Posted on 1/29/15 at 9:59 pm to alabamabuckeye
This probably went much better in your head....
Also, you have at least 5 slow o-lineman trying to tackle a corner or safety....not exactly as reliable as a special teams punt coverage unit.
Also, you have at least 5 slow o-lineman trying to tackle a corner or safety....not exactly as reliable as a special teams punt coverage unit.
Posted on 1/29/15 at 9:59 pm to TJG210
quote:
Please convince Saban to start employing this strategy.
Posted on 1/29/15 at 10:00 pm to Mr.Perfect
It's not that crazy of an idea, there's a very successful HS coach who never punts, always goes for 2, and always kicks onside kicks. Statistically, it is a sound strategy, since you are maximizing your win probability.
Posted on 1/29/15 at 10:00 pm to alabamabuckeye
Near midfield, I'd do it. Not necessarily a hail mary, but I'd be going for it quite often for sure.
But the answer to your question is a fairly simple one, job security. High risk on the field= High risk of losing your job.
But the answer to your question is a fairly simple one, job security. High risk on the field= High risk of losing your job.
Posted on 1/29/15 at 10:01 pm to CecilShortsHisPants
I've also had a couple beers so...
Posted on 1/29/15 at 10:01 pm to alabamabuckeye
Never punting = throwing a hail mary on every 4th.
Posted on 1/29/15 at 10:05 pm to alabamabuckeye
quote:This is just false, my man.
Statistically, it is a sound strategy, since you are maximizing your win probability.
Posted on 1/29/15 at 10:12 pm to alabamabuckeye
Posted on 1/29/15 at 10:14 pm to alabamabuckeye
quote:
Would it not be the same as a punt
...wut?
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