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Message
I'm Concerned about the Potential "Mushrooming" Effect with Ebola
Posted on 10/15/14 at 12:34 pm
Posted on 10/15/14 at 12:34 pm
I'm reading these threads, and realizing that there are people here who are still saying that this aEbola situation is practically much ado about nothing. Well, let me throw out a few facts:
(1) The WHO is now projecting that we will soon see 10,000 new cases of Ebola EACH WEEK. Now, obviously they are talking about the epidemic growing in the already affected areas of Africa.
HOWEVER, this projection of an exponential increase means that the potential for Ebola-infected people traveling to America could increase exponentially, too.
(2) Each one of these Ebola victims has had dozens of "direct" contacts. It appears that we have had mostly good news so far regarding the contacts for Duncan, except for 2 healthcare workers, but if/when there are more people testing positive for Ebola, the number of contacts for these people will probably be in the dozens, too. In fact, the second healthcare worker was on a commercial flight just 2-3 days ago, and her potential contacts from the flight alone is up to 132.
That's my biggest concern. The sheer number of people coming into contact with infected people, and the possibility that these numbers could end up growing exponentially. I'm reluctant to use the term "law of averages," but this is what bothers me the most.
Are we already in the process of experiencing this?
EDIT - I've corrected my mistake of attributing that projection to CDC. it was the WHO that issued the projection.
(1) The WHO is now projecting that we will soon see 10,000 new cases of Ebola EACH WEEK. Now, obviously they are talking about the epidemic growing in the already affected areas of Africa.
HOWEVER, this projection of an exponential increase means that the potential for Ebola-infected people traveling to America could increase exponentially, too.
(2) Each one of these Ebola victims has had dozens of "direct" contacts. It appears that we have had mostly good news so far regarding the contacts for Duncan, except for 2 healthcare workers, but if/when there are more people testing positive for Ebola, the number of contacts for these people will probably be in the dozens, too. In fact, the second healthcare worker was on a commercial flight just 2-3 days ago, and her potential contacts from the flight alone is up to 132.
That's my biggest concern. The sheer number of people coming into contact with infected people, and the possibility that these numbers could end up growing exponentially. I'm reluctant to use the term "law of averages," but this is what bothers me the most.
Are we already in the process of experiencing this?
EDIT - I've corrected my mistake of attributing that projection to CDC. it was the WHO that issued the projection.
This post was edited on 10/15/14 at 3:03 pm
13
Posted on 10/15/14 at 12:35 pm to KCT
I have met no one who is unconcerned FWIW.
Posted on 10/15/14 at 12:36 pm to KCT
Still don't care here. Worrying about stuff is not how I'm gonna live my life.
Posted on 10/15/14 at 12:36 pm to KCT
we'll know in 21 days
Posted on 10/15/14 at 12:40 pm to KCT
quote:That was the WHO talking about Africa.
The CDC is now projecting that we will soon see 10,000 new cases of Ebola EACH WEEK.
It won't happen.
quote:Well, get back to Scruffy when it actually starts spreading.
Each one of these Ebola victims has had dozens of "direct" contacts. It appears that we have had mostly good news so far regarding the contacts for Duncan, except for 2 healthcare workers, but if/when there are more people testing positive for Ebola, the number of contacts for these people will probably be in the dozens, too.
Until then, unbunch your panties, Cindy.
quote:
Are we already in the process of experiencing this?
No.
This post was edited on 10/15/14 at 12:41 pm
Posted on 10/15/14 at 12:41 pm to KCT
quote:
(1) The CDC is now projecting that we will soon see 10,000 new cases of Ebola EACH WEEK. Now, obviously they are talking about the epidemic growing in the already affected areas of Africa.
Categorically false. FFS people.
Posted on 10/15/14 at 1:06 pm to KCT
Drudge headline : Passenger wears Hazmat suit to Dulles Airport.
Posted on 10/15/14 at 1:29 pm to KCT
quote:No, they are not. Strike 1.
(1) The CDC is now projecting that we will soon see 10,000 new cases of Ebola EACH WEEK.
Posted on 10/15/14 at 1:32 pm to KCT
quote:Unless terrorists get involved, I don't expect anything remotely like a mushrooming effect.
That's my biggest concern. The sheer number of people coming into contact with infected people, and the possibility that these numbers could end up growing exponentially. I'm reluctant to use the term "law of averages," but this is what bothers me the most.
Are we already in the process of experiencing this?
These cases will appear individually, and sporadically until appropriate travel quarantines and/or bans are implemented. Insofar as those outbreaks here are totally avoidable, they are also totally inexcusable. Everyone of them will endanger healthcare workers, unnecessarily so. There may be a few secondary infections outside of healthcare, but those will be infrequent.
It is a bad bug, but with controllable epidemiology.
Posted on 10/15/14 at 2:27 pm to KCT
Build a basement if you don't have one. Load it up man the Ebola is being used as a biological weapon man there are also now coffins and FEMA camps man. Seriously though don't worry
Posted on 10/15/14 at 2:50 pm to KCT
quote:
The CDC is now projecting that we will soon see 10,000 new cases of Ebola EACH WEEK.
No they are not, stop spreading lies.
Posted on 10/15/14 at 7:43 pm to KCT
quote:
1) The WHO is now projecting that we will soon see 10,000 new cases of Ebola EACH WEEK.
Hopefully we won't get fooled again.
This post was edited on 10/15/14 at 7:47 pm
Posted on 10/15/14 at 9:40 pm to KCT
quote:
Are we already in the process of experiencing this?
Jesus can we get all the Ebola threads limited to just one single thread where all you nut jobs can cry in your panties.
Ebola is not a threat to this country.
More people will die of the flu, car accidents and a jealous husband shooting their arse then from Ebola this year.
Posted on 10/16/14 at 1:00 am to KCT
quote:
(2) Each one of these Ebola victims has had dozens of "direct" contacts. It appears that we have had mostly good news so far regarding the contacts for Duncan, except for 2 healthcare workers, but if/when there are more people testing positive for Ebola, the number of contacts for these people will probably be in the dozens, too. In fact, the second healthcare worker was on a commercial flight just 2-3 days ago, and her potential contacts from the flight alone is up to 132.
All things being equal, the average number of people each Ebola victim infects is 2.
If nothing else, the fear of the virus here compared to people insisting it doesn't exist there will skew that average down in the US.
This post was edited on 10/16/14 at 1:01 am
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