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Started By
Message
Warming Predictions vs. Real World
Posted on 2/20/14 at 1:20 pm
Posted on 2/20/14 at 1:20 pm
So the red line is an average of 102 climate models. In any unbiased average with accurate assumptions you would expect approximately an equal number of climate models to over-forecast as under-forecast compared to actual conditions. One thing that this chart clearly illustrates is climate industry bias toward the warming side. I wonder if any one of the 102 climate models averaged in the chart above nailed their forecast?
LINK
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Posted on 2/20/14 at 1:27 pm to GumboPot
People gonna be maaaaad! 
Posted on 2/20/14 at 1:29 pm to GumboPot
The hell you say...
This post was edited on 2/20/14 at 1:32 pm
Posted on 2/20/14 at 1:30 pm to GumboPot
DENIER! DENIER! DENIER!
Why do you hate science so much. Bringing in such data will just cloud the issue. We need to spend more on research, cripple entire industries, and bankrupt others while we figure this out.
But seriously, do you think your pretty little graph is going to change the minds of true believers?
Why do you hate science so much. Bringing in such data will just cloud the issue. We need to spend more on research, cripple entire industries, and bankrupt others while we figure this out.
But seriously, do you think your pretty little graph is going to change the minds of true believers?
Posted on 2/20/14 at 1:38 pm to GumboPot
:noshit:
Posted on 2/20/14 at 1:47 pm to GumboPot
John Kerry says you think the Earth is flat.
Posted on 2/20/14 at 2:23 pm to GumboPot
quote:
So the red line is an average of 102 climate models.
As I have suspected all along:
Posted on 2/20/14 at 3:17 pm to GumboPot
So let me get this straight, the red line indicates model predictions from 1979?
IOW, they are comparing what models were predicting in 1979 with observed data since?
I think our modeling may have improved some since 1979.
IOW, they are comparing what models were predicting in 1979 with observed data since?
I think our modeling may have improved some since 1979.
Posted on 2/20/14 at 4:38 pm to GumboPot
Chart is meaningless without standard error/standard deviation incorporated for those averages. The term global warming was a horribly misguided attempt to dramatize what is predicted to be happening. Climate change or Increased climate variability is more how to see it.
Look at the means and S.E. for each time point evaluated. Furthermore, these model runs were performed in 1979? They likely assumed no changes in emissions from chemical/power plants, vehicles and other things, which have all improved by regulations enforced over the past several decades.
In the end, climate change is likely happening, and the actions being taken over the last 20-30 years have reduced the potential impact it may have had. Also, it is important to look at this more deeply than just mean annual temperature.
Look at the means and S.E. for each time point evaluated. Furthermore, these model runs were performed in 1979? They likely assumed no changes in emissions from chemical/power plants, vehicles and other things, which have all improved by regulations enforced over the past several decades.
In the end, climate change is likely happening, and the actions being taken over the last 20-30 years have reduced the potential impact it may have had. Also, it is important to look at this more deeply than just mean annual temperature.
Posted on 2/20/14 at 5:07 pm to GumboPot
So does the zero baseline represent the ideal temperature?
What temperature is that?
What temperature is that?
Posted on 2/20/14 at 6:08 pm to GumboPot
YOU FIGURED IT OUT!! There's no global warming!!
Congratulations. You should go buy land in Miami in celebration.
Congratulations. You should go buy land in Miami in celebration.
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