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re: Is it ever worth it to kick a FG inside the 5 yard line?
Posted on 1/13/12 at 3:34 pm to Brettesaurus Rex
Posted on 1/13/12 at 3:34 pm to Brettesaurus Rex
Would you go for 2pts everytime as well? Twice as many points as kicking the XP & you are at the 2 yard line.
1
Posted on 1/13/12 at 3:41 pm to GeauxDT
quote:
About 5 years ago I woulda said go for the TD, but since then I've seen so many games decided by less than 3 points where the losing team went for the 7 instead of taking the points. Gotta take points any way you can get them, especially in the NFL. College teams can score way more easily so I wouldn't mind seeing more teams go for 7
See is it the truth or is it a human fallacy to remember the bad outcomes. Coaches also need to make the 4th down playbook the same as the 3rd down playbook and make the 3rd down play like a second down play. When we finally understand that 3 and out is not logical it is really 4 and out.
Posted on 1/13/12 at 3:45 pm to LSUtigersarefun
always take 1st Quarter points
Posted on 1/13/12 at 3:45 pm to TigerintheNO
quote:i would consider this
Would you go for 2pts everytime as well?
Posted on 1/13/12 at 4:00 pm to alteRegoJB
quote:
always take 1st Quarter points
Maybe, you have stats to back that up?
Posted on 1/13/12 at 4:02 pm to LSUtigersarefun
no, its my opinion that games arent won in Q1 but can be lost. Lets say both teams get 2 possessions and you play awful giving up 2 TDs....well if you kick 2 FGs, its only 14-6...if you get nothing...it could get worse and the game gets out of hand. JMO....i would be more likely to go for those type of things second half
Posted on 1/13/12 at 5:19 pm to alteRegoJB
quote:
no, its my opinion
We are talking about game theory here.
There is a matrix that shows it. But I am too lazy to create it.
The answer goes would you risk a ROI 3 vs 7 of 133% for a play that has a 50% chance of success.
With these odds I would break Vegas.
So I would say that if your chances of success of over ~36 percent it is worth the gamble over the long hall. That is only for a td. Not for going for it on a 4th down
This post was edited on 1/13/12 at 5:24 pm
Posted on 1/13/12 at 9:16 pm to Brettesaurus Rex
Statistically, you should always go for it on fourth and five or less. Therefore, no it is not worth it to kick a field goal. Of course, these are decisions, while statistically more logical may result in a coach getting fired, so they do not have the balls to always to go for it.
Posted on 1/13/12 at 11:28 pm to 7thWardTiger
quote:
To the OP. Take the points while you can unless its 4th and inches and you feel confident with the sneak. Those points matter.
Why? If you feel that you can complete a 5 yard play, or less, at least 50% of the time you should always go for 6..which actually ends up being 7 over 95% of the time.
Posted on 1/13/12 at 11:38 pm to Vicks Kennel Club
quote:
cally, you should always go for it on fourth and five or less.
Posted on 1/13/12 at 11:39 pm to Brettesaurus Rex
It all depends on so many obvious things.
As the field shrinks - getting it in seems to be more difficult with athletic defenses.
Take the points:
If your OC is unimaginative or "old school."
If your offense is struggling.
If you're Penn State.
Go for it:
If your defense sucks.
If your O is awesome.
If you're Boise State.
As the field shrinks - getting it in seems to be more difficult with athletic defenses.
Take the points:
If your OC is unimaginative or "old school."
If your offense is struggling.
If you're Penn State.
Go for it:
If your defense sucks.
If your O is awesome.
If you're Boise State.
This post was edited on 1/13/12 at 11:41 pm
Posted on 1/14/12 at 12:16 am to LSUtigersarefun
quote:
Coaches are way to conservative in the game of football.
Punt on way to many 4th downs, and when they do go for it they are way to conservative in their play calling.
Think about it like this. YOu drove the ball probably 45 yards averaging probably 7 yards + a play and you don't have faith in your team to get you the last 5. Also if you do turn it over that overly conservative coach on the other side is going to call plays that give you the ball back at the 50.
I guess it is theories like this why I am not a coach.
Pulaski Academy in Little Rock has a coach that had study statistics of punts and kickoffs, etc. They won the state championship and killed Fayetteville in preseason game, who won the largest class state championship.
They go for 2 every time, they onside kick every time, and they only punted like 4 times this year. They have about 12 different onside kick plays. It's nuts but it works for him. They were up on Cabot, a solid larger class football program, 29-0 before Cabot even got the ball on offense.
LINK
This post was edited on 1/14/12 at 12:18 am
Posted on 1/14/12 at 10:30 am to Brettesaurus Rex
quote:
Barring a game winning FG obviously. I mean in the beginning or middle of still competitive games. So many times I will see a team get stopped on the goal line and then trot out the kicker to try a FG that is shorter than a PAT.
I've always felt like the risk in getting that touchdown is worth so much more than turning it over on downs. At the worst you don't get any points, but the other team is hiking the ball in their own end zone.
#1 There is a huge difference between 4th and goal from the 1 and 4th and goal from the 3 yard line.
#2 The current situation makes a huge difference. Will a FG put you up two scores? Does it give you the lead? Does it only put you up 6 where you can still be beat by a TD?
#3 Your opponent makes a big difference. Are you playing against Drew Brees where you feel like you need to score more, or Alex Smith?
#4 What kind of defense do you have. Are you the Ravens who can smother a team with a lead? Or, is it likely that you need to score more points to win.
In short, there is no single rule. The right decision is always based on the situation.
Posted on 1/14/12 at 11:21 am to moneyg
fwiw if i have a d like bama/LSU id say go for it on the goal line if you already have the lead. These defenses are so good id trust them when they have another team pinned down that the risk of going for a td is worth it. imo both of these teams should take slightly more risk than they do because of how good their defenses are.
Posted on 1/14/12 at 11:28 am to heartbreakTiger
The only time a FG should be attempted inside the 5 is if you're up by 6-8 points or up by 14-16 points. Or if its to win the game
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