re: BCS: discussion and breakdown - UPDATED

Matt

Last point I promise (with a very stupid metaphor so please excuse but it's all that is coming to mind)

If I have my dog on a leash and throw a bone a few feet out of reach in front of him, he will not get to that bone unless I give him some slack.


Now picture the media and the "human element" are me and the computers are the leash. OSU is obviously the dog.

It's seems like everyone is OVER-analyzing what has to happen to make up the ground between the dog's nose and the bone. I.E. Computers, Points.

But if the media does not want to see this OSU/LSU matchup, they CAN jerk that leash back! The votes for those spots are there, but do not automatically go to OSU. The voters could dump OSU in lower spots deliberately to avoid them gaining ground.

Why would they? One major reason is ratings. Bama/LSU GOC part 1 landed higher ratings than most NFL Superbowls. (Money)

Thoughts?

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But if the media does not want to see this OSU/LSU matchup, they CAN jerk that leash back! The votes for those spots are there, but do not automatically go to OSU. The voters could dump OSU in lower spots deliberately to avoid them gaining ground.

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They can jerk it back, or they can give him slack.

164 different people are holding this giant arse "leash", the dog really wants that fricking treat, if 74% of those voters are yanking back and 26% are letting him have the treat.. that dog is going to get the treat. That's the scary part about the scenario.

Man alive am I looking forward to this week of football... there are a ton of games with relevance to how this BCS takes shape.

For LSU esp (teams in bold winning helps LSU):
1) Beating Arkansas (with a win everything else is likely irrelevant)
2) Oregon vs Oregon State
3) WVU vs Pitt (sound familiar?)
4) Florida vs FSU (on the balance it helps both LSU and Bama if Florida wins)
5) WKU vs Troy
6) Vandy vs Wake - affects both Bama and Arky as this was a common opponent for them

For Bama:
1) Beating Auburn (lose this and you are out of it most likely)
2) PSU vs Wisconsin
3) Vandy vs Wake Forest
4) Florida vs FSU

For Arkansas:
1) Beat LSU (lose this and you look to be done)
2) Texas A&M vs Texas
3) South Carolina vs Clemson
4) Vandy vs Wake Forest

For Oklahoma State:
1) Beat OU
2) Tulsa vs Houston

For Va Tech:
1) beat Virginia
2) FSU vs Florida
3) Clemson vs USC
4) Ga Tech vs UGA
5) Wake Forest vs Vandy
6) Marshall vs ECU

For Stanford (I think they are out of it but w/e):
1) beat Notre Dame
2) Arizona vs La Laff
2) Duke vs North Carolina

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If it comes down to talking heads discussing OSU v. Bama

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that's what I'm thinking

As soon as OSU lost, I thought to myself they're still going to make the title game. Assuming LSU and OSU win out, I think OSU will jump bama based on their computer scores AND I think the anti-rematch crowd will be strong enough that they'll get the votes needed to jump Bama

I really really really just wanted LSU and OSU to be undefeated and play for it all.

Thanks Slackhouse,

I agree with your analysis. Ok State is end the best position as long as they beat Oklahoma.

Voters will give the edge to Oklahoma State in order to stop a rematch.

question: If Ok State is a solid #3 in the human polls, will there computer score all them to pass Bama? Or do at least a portion of the human polls have to vote OK State #2? someone said that Ok State will need 26%? is that correct?

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lsumatt

Thanks for keeping us in the know

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question: If Ok State is a solid #3 in the human polls, will there computer score all them to pass Bama? Or do at least a portion of the human polls have to vote OK State #2? someone said that Ok State will need 26%? is that correct?

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i'm not sure of exactly how many they would have. But, they are going to have to gain some points some where.

For example. If Arkansas had all of the #2 computer polls right now, they would still be behind Bama. so, the computer polls are going to be huge. The computer rankings look like so:

LSU - 1.000
OSU - 0.950
Bama- 0.930
Arky- 0.870
KSU - 0.840
OkU - 0.800

I expect Arkansas to gain ground on Bama by playing LSU while Bama is playing Auburn. K State's will take a drop by playing Iowa State and OU could see their's rise by playing OSU.

It's conceivable that Bama's computer ranking (which was 0.9000 just 2 weeks ago) could drop to the 0.8500 region. That would do enough to put OSU in at #3 even if they only had the same amount of votes that Arkansas currently has in the human polls.

Once again, the computer polls are going to decide this (if the top teams win). Wisky over Penn State, FSU over Florida, LSU over Arkansas, Temple over Kent State could all hurt Bama's SOS compared to Arkansas. And you can add Miss State or Ole Miss, Tenn, Vandy, and Auburn and it will hurt Bama compared to Oklahoma and OSU's SOS.

I think at the end of the year, the computer polls will look like:

LSU
OSU
Arkansas
OU
Bama

It really depends on the average score to determine how it will shake out. But, Bama is going to have to hope that OSU loses, IMO. Bama is going to fall a lot in the computer polls in the next 2 weeks and OSU has the potential to gain a lot of points in the human polls.

If OSU beats OU, they are in, IMO.

ETA: OSU will have to be #3 in both polls for the computer score to be enough to matter. So, they will have to jump Stanford and VT with a win over OU.

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Posted by RollTideRockStar

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LsuMatt has ready covered the issue with these national pundits. they don't consider how the voters will vote the last week. Bama certainly has a shot but in 2 weeks, IF Okie St wins Bedlam, the voters have to decide: take a 1 loss conference champ or take a 1 loss non division winner. Okie St is also in a good position. Especially if you see Va Tech and Stanford go down and that is very possible in the next 2 weeks.

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for the record, if LSU loses to Arkansas and Bama wins, all three teams will be considered division winners...co-champions.

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That is right just ask Ole Miss 03.