RNC Blew VA Referendum Due to Lavish Cornyn Spending and Misplaced Priorities.

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Virginia voters have narrowly approved a Democrat-drawn mid-decade congressional gerrymander, handing Democrats up to four additional U.S. House seats. But how did Republicans lose, given the vote was so close, and given their massive funding advantage? We break it down here:

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WHAT HAPPENED: Virginia voters narrowly approved a Democrat-drawn mid-decade congressional gerrymander by a margin of roughly 81,188 votes — 51.3 percent to 48.7 percent with more than 95 percent reporting at the time of publication. The constitutional amendment hands the Democrat-controlled General Assembly power to redraw Virginia’s congressional districts through October 31, 2030.

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COST PER VOTE: A snap analysis by The National Pulse shows the “Yes” (Democrat) side spent $62.3 million, divided by 1,545,736 votes (at the time of publication), which comes to around $40.30 per vote. Meanwhile, the Republican “No” side spent around $20 million, divided by 1,464,548 votes, for an average of $13.66 per vote. Democrats spent three times as much per head — and still only cleared 51.3 percent.

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PENNY WISE: Closing the 81,188-vote gap at the “No” side’s own efficiency rate would have cost around $1.1 million — just over one percent of what the GOP burned on John Cornyn’s primary campaign against Ken Paxton in Texas last month. Even a generous real-world multiplier, accounting for diminishing campaign returns, lands at just $2 million to $4 million.

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CORNYN CALCULUS: Republicans spent roughly $95.1 million on the Cornyn–Paxton primary in Texas. The “No” side in Virginia spent roughly $20 million. That is about five times more on a single Senate incumbent than on a referendum that could cost the party four House seats.

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THE FIRM: Virginians for Fair Maps — the losing “No” campaign — was run by Mike Young, a partner at FP1 Strategies, which was founded by Chris LaCivita. LaCivita is simultaneously the senior campaign consultant for the Cornyn super PAC which has spent all that money attacking Ken Paxton, and pushing Trump to endorse Cornyn, who has repeatedly stabbed the President in the back. Ninety-five million dollars went one way. Twenty million went the other. And much of it through LaCivita’s own companies and partners.

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