Solar Set to Surpass Coal in China, But...

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China’s solar generating capacity is poised to exceed coal for the time this year, the China Electricity Council said in a report this week.

The country, long dependent on coal, should get about half of its installed generating capacity from solar and wind by the end of 2026, whereas coal’s use is expected to fall to about one-third of the total.

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The Los Angeles Times reports the country is expected to build out more than 400 GW of new generation in 2026 to keep up with electricity demand, with most of the new capacity to come from wind and solar, which combined would account for about 300 GW.

These figures seem to indicate that China is transitioning away from coal. But that would be a wrong assumption. The first number to look at is the 300 GW of renewables. It is smaller than last year, when solar alone accounted for 315 gigawatts of new capacity in China.

The reason has to do with a change to China’s power regulatory regime. Local developers wanted to get their projects operational before the change came into effect last June 1. After that date, the country shifted its renewable energy pricing from government-set feed-in tariffs to a market-based auction system. The idea was that by forcing new wind and solar projects to compete in the power market, it would encourage efficiency and lower prices.

According to Rystad Energy, in 2026 China is forecast to commission 235 GW of solar and 98 GW of wind capacity, reducing global renewable power generation capacity from 703 GW in 2025 to 650 GW in 2026.

In other words, China will be largely responsible for the forecast reduction in new global solar capacity, which reached a record 703 GW in 2025, largely driven by new solar capacity coming online in China during the first half of the year.

However, total renewable sources, not just solar, are expected to reach 11,900 terawatt-hours in 2026, overtaking coal as the largest source of power generation — a position it has held for decades.

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Here comes the catch. This week Carbon Brief reported that proposals to build coal-fired power plants in China reached a record high in China.

The report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air and Global Energy Monitor says that in 2025, developers submitted new or reactivated proposals to build a total of 161 gigawatts (GW) of new coal-fired power plants.

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Around two-thirds of coal-powered capacity proposed in China since 2014 has either been commissioned or is set to be built.

This is the reverse of what is happening outside of China, where roughly two-thirds of proposed coal capacity never makes it to construction.

Coal may be down in China, but it’s not yet out.

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