Real Clear Politics on where Trump went astray

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Voters did not elect Trump to manage decline. They elected him to fix things that were not working. That is why DOGE mattered. For a brief moment, it validated what Americans, particularly younger voters, already believed: that the federal government is bloated, corrupt, self-dealing, and largely insulated from consequences. Under-40 voters, the most disillusioned cohort by many measures, were the most supportive of DOGE, the most open to arrests for corruption, and the most likely to agree with the statement that “he who saves his country violates no laws” (57%).

Trump’s approval among voters under 40 briefly hit 60% almost exactly when Google search interest in DOGE peaked. That alignment should have frozen Republican politics in Washington in place. Instead, DOGE was quietly sidelined, and Trump’s approval among younger voters has since fallen sharply into the low 40s. That is not coincidence. It is a signal.

Rather than doubling down on systemic accountability, the last few months have felt unfocused, with counter-signaling on affordability and jobs, infighting, the Epstein saga, renewed foreign entanglements, and a governing posture that feels reactive rather than intentional. Voters are noticing.

Despite Trump’s unsurprising personal approval rating today (net -7), the Democratic lead on the generic ballot has steadily widened to D+6. That should set off alarms. The November 2024 election was Trumpy, not Republican, and off-cycle special elections continue to reinforce that reality. Momentum, enthusiasm, and turnout are not automatic for Republicans.

The Republican Party has not helped. Its legislative output is thin. Its ability to deliver tangible wins is questionable. Even the bare minimum – serious accountability investigations – has largely failed to materialize. There is no clear path to a 2026 victory if this continues, which is why what happened in Minnesota mattered so much.

The discovery of rampant alleged fraud in Minnesota was a gift. It offered a rare opportunity to shift the national conversation away from Republican dysfunction and toward something Americans overwhelmingly agree on. Three-quarters of voters are angry about the level of waste, fraud, and abuse in the federal government. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has cited figures as high as $300 to $600 billion annually. That is not budget trimming. That is empire-fatal kleptocracy.

This was the moment for a full-scale, anti-blue-state fraud push. Follow the money. Subpoena everything. Make examples. Send every agency in, even the 80,000 armed IRS agents we should have fired. If fraud is that widespread, maybe austerity is not the answer. Maybe arrests are.

Instead, the focus shifted.

ICE was surged into Minneapolis. What could have been a systemic fraud investigation became a performative deportation spectacle. Predictable protests followed. Then escalation: more ICE presence, masks, tear gas, aggressive enforcement. Within days, the headlines were no longer about uncovering fraud. They were about clashes, optics, and ultimately the tragic shooting deaths of two protesters.

The ICE red meat might be cathartic for some. But politically effective, no.

Our polling has been consistent for years on this point. Americans want illegal immigration stopped. That is not in dispute. They want criminals deported. They want the border enforced. But they also want fairness, not brutality, and they recoil when enforcement looks indiscriminate, theatrical, or excessive.

A plurality of Americans now say ICE tactics are too harsh, even while still supporting deportation in principle. That tension is not ideological. It is emotional.

Trump made matters worse by signaling a narrowing of deportations to only the “worst criminals,” while simultaneously negotiating with Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, who reportedly has an active criminal referral at the Department of Justice. To many in Trump’s coalition, this likely feels like a rug pull, as my barrage of private X messages imply. A betrayal of expectations. Something uncomfortably close to “read my lips.”

Here is what should worry the White House most: Voters trust big business almost as little as they trust the federal government itself. By a five-to-one margin, voters say businesses have too much influence in the Trump administration, not too little.

Americans do not just want illegal immigrants removed. They want the hiring magnet destroyed. They overwhelmingly support punishing companies that employ illegal labor. That policy outperforms Trump’s personal approval by nearly 30 net points. It is not even close.

So the obvious question follows: What is stopping this administration from going after the employers? Likewise, a federal E-Verify mandate is ridiculously popular. Why have Republicans been unable to pluck this low-hanging fruit?

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