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Analysis of TN Congressional Race
Posted on 12/3/25 at 12:01 pm
Posted on 12/3/25 at 12:01 pm
From Erik Erickson's newsletter this morning.
quote:
The district is actually an R+10 district, meaning a generic Republican should beat a generic Democrat by ten points. Trump won the district by 22 points. Former Congressman Mark Greene won it by 21.5 points. Last night, Matt Van Epps won it by less than ten points, but more than five points.
It is fair to say that this was an off-off-year election the Tuesday after Thanksgiving, so there is only so much to make of turnout except that the turnout roughly matched the midterm November turnout from 2022. Read that again — last night generated midterm turnout levels the Tuesday after Thanksgiving in an odd-numbered year special election.
It is also fair to say that in a district that Trump won by twenty-two points just over 12 months ago, the Republican should not have won by less than ten points with turnout at roughly 2022 levels.
If we get to the midterms and every district shifts the way TN-07 did last night, the Democrats would pick up around 43 seats. Every single county in the district shifted left, some more than others.
Compared to November of 2024:
Davidson: 25 points to the left.
Dickson: 12 points to the left.
Hickman: 8 points to the left.
Humphreys: 12 points to the left.
Wayne: 7 points to the left.
Decatur: 9 points to the left.
Benton: 9 points to the left.
Houston: 12 points to the left.
Perry: 15 points to the left.
The pattern in both special elections and big statewide elections nationwide this year, the GOP is underperforming and Democrats are overperforming with independent voters who tell pollsters they are both exhausted by Trump and upset with the cost of living.
Publicly, Republicans will spin this as no big deal because it was a special election in an odd-numbered year the week after Thanksgiving. Privately, they will understand the pattern keeps holding up. From Mississippi to Georgia to Virginia and beyond, the usual rule of politics appears to be holding up — the party in the White House in midterms gets hurt.
So the GOP needs to embrace Operation Kooktoberfest and do to Democrats what Democrats did to the GOP in 2022.
The GOP needs to amplify the craziest and nuttiest progressives in each Democrat primary and make it appear that person is the one the GOP fears the most. Help shape the Democratic primary and push it as far left as possible because, as much as voters do not like Donald Trump, they positively hate the far left.
Once the GOP has helped shape their opposition, they can run against it hard with incumbent Republicans whom voters have already taken a chance on and who voters may not care for, but they feel safe with and know the incumbent is not a bat crap crazy nutjob like the Democrat who lost last night in Tennessee.
Republicans have real damage control to do.
The President needs to start sounding sympathetic to the plight of Americans instead of doing what Joe Biden did and insisting everything is fine.
17
Posted on 12/3/25 at 12:07 pm to prplhze2000
Blonde woman getting in the news had name recognition. It’s not like 50% even pay attention to issues but retain name or associate her media presence
Posted on 12/3/25 at 12:08 pm to prplhze2000
Dr Steve is the best in the business - Here is his take about what happened yesterday - Erick Erickson is a RINO.
This post was edited on 12/3/25 at 12:11 pm
Posted on 12/3/25 at 12:11 pm to prplhze2000
Democrat lost and its doom and gloom blaming Trump. Lol
Posted on 12/3/25 at 12:13 pm to prplhze2000
Erik Erickson = Panican
Posted on 12/3/25 at 12:35 pm to prplhze2000
I think the best comparison to last night's election is to the 5th congressional race in Tennessee 4 years ago. In the 5th in 2022 you had no incumbent. You also had a well-known female state legislator running for the Democrats. The difference is that her opponent - Andy ogles - had better name recognition than Van Epps and also ran a more visible campaign (I didn't even know what Van Epps looked like till 2 weeks or so before last night.)
Ogles won in 2022 by 13 points. Van Epps won last night by 9. Ogles' district is more Republican leaning largely because it takes more of the conservative area of Nashville and more conservative area of Williamson County- but otherwise is fairly similar.
If I were trying to guess a movement of the parties one way or another, I would say the Democrats picked up 2 points, give or take a point.
Republicans should take note and make adjustments - but I don't think this is evidence a blue wave incoming.
Ogles won in 2022 by 13 points. Van Epps won last night by 9. Ogles' district is more Republican leaning largely because it takes more of the conservative area of Nashville and more conservative area of Williamson County- but otherwise is fairly similar.
If I were trying to guess a movement of the parties one way or another, I would say the Democrats picked up 2 points, give or take a point.
Republicans should take note and make adjustments - but I don't think this is evidence a blue wave incoming.
This post was edited on 12/3/25 at 12:37 pm
Posted on 12/3/25 at 12:39 pm to prplhze2000
here's the good news jethro, and you can share it with your pal ereeek ereekson! turn out wasn't at 2022 levels or even 2024 levels it was off 75%
do you understand the words coming out of my mouth?
it was down 75% because it was an OFF year election, so you and ereeek can continue your circle jerk.
do you understand the words coming out of my mouth?
it was down 75% because it was an OFF year election, so you and ereeek can continue your circle jerk.
Posted on 12/3/25 at 12:39 pm to Man4others
quote:
Erik Erickson = Panican
He's a Bush/Cheney type. Definitely not MAGA.
Posted on 12/3/25 at 12:42 pm to prplhze2000
Trump has accomplishments he can list and isn’t running again.
Republicans have no accomplishments to list and are running again.
It remains to be seen if Republicans can win without Trump.
Republicans have no accomplishments to list and are running again.
It remains to be seen if Republicans can win without Trump.
Posted on 12/3/25 at 12:44 pm to prplhze2000
Of course Erickson with the OMB take
Posted on 12/3/25 at 12:45 pm to prplhze2000
She lost by 9 points. If I'm the Democrat strategists, I would not be celebrating, necessarily. 9 pts ain't all that close in elections
Posted on 12/3/25 at 12:47 pm to prplhze2000
10 points in the opposite direction of the party in power is average for special elections. Trump won by 22. Afrin lost by 9. 13 point swing. Normal.
Talking heads are paid to talk. It’s all nonsense.
Talking heads are paid to talk. It’s all nonsense.
This post was edited on 12/3/25 at 12:49 pm
Posted on 12/3/25 at 12:47 pm to KCT
I’m no political strategist but it just seems this was just as much the Rs doing to make the case that this race has national implications. The reason being that Rs want to show that this person is the type of candidate the Democrats want and not the “moderate” candidate that the Bill Mahrs of the Democratic Party are preaching for.
Posted on 12/3/25 at 12:51 pm to KiwiHead
quote:
She lost by 9 points. If I'm the Democrat strategists, I would not be celebrating, necessarily. 9 pts ain't all that close in elections
To her credit - she ran a great campaign. She is young and very active - she was constantly campaigning and going into very conservative/Republican areas and asking for votes. Her team of supporters really believed in her. If she did not have the record she has (harassing ICE, making a spectacle of herself in the Tennessee House Chamber, saying she wanted to abolish police, that she likes riots, and that she hates Nashville) she may have done a few points better. She may not have been able to get the Democrat base so excited, though.
But it is hard to imagine the Democrats being able to better than she did in this district. Van Epps was a dud of a candidate. No energy, no enthusiasm, not much of a campaigner at all.
Posted on 12/3/25 at 1:11 pm to prplhze2000
quote:
Last night, Matt Van Epps won it by less than ten points, but more than five points.
It was 9 points.
Posted on 12/3/25 at 1:37 pm to prplhze2000
quote:
If we get to the midterms and every district shifts the way TN-07 did last night, the Democrats would pick up around 43 seats. Every single county in the district shifted left, some more than others.
Who pays this idiot with analysis like this?
Posted on 12/3/25 at 1:42 pm to FLTech
quote:I gotta agree with this.
Erick Erickson is a RINO.
He’s on the radio here in Lafayette on 96.5 (took the time slot after Bongino left) and I don’t care for him too much. He’s very moderate and soft.
Thankfully I found Michael Berry on 98.5.
Posted on 12/3/25 at 1:43 pm to the808bass
quote:
Who pays this idiot with analysis like this?
It's not "analysis." It's trying to shape and shift a narrative.
Posted on 12/3/25 at 1:47 pm to hogminer
And independents took another percentage point.
Posted on 12/3/25 at 1:50 pm to prplhze2000
I think, absolutely, the GOP needs to start showing these far-left wack-jobs for what they are.
When I drove through Tennessee last week, I saw the results (the ads) of dragging her through the mud - on things she said. They weren’t lies. It worked to get the election back to being an easy win.
Now, they should start now - absolutely right now - in doing it across the country.
Trump, really the whole GOP, also needs to start, again right now, going out into America to show that he cares about the economy and, most of all, inflation.
When I drove through Tennessee last week, I saw the results (the ads) of dragging her through the mud - on things she said. They weren’t lies. It worked to get the election back to being an easy win.
Now, they should start now - absolutely right now - in doing it across the country.
Trump, really the whole GOP, also needs to start, again right now, going out into America to show that he cares about the economy and, most of all, inflation.
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