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LSU Can’t Ignore the Coming Coaching Salary Correction

Posted on 10/30/25 at 3:17 pm
Posted by ScotlandAve
Member since Dec 2024
329 posts
Posted on 10/30/25 at 3:17 pm
I’m from Louisiana, LSU grad, LSU Law grad. Let’s stop pretending these insane guaranteed contracts and buyouts happen in a vacuum. A lot of the same agents represent coaches, ADs, media personalities, even university execs. There’s an ecosystem here, and everyone in it benefits — except the schools and fans stuck holding the bag.

But here’s the reality no one wants to admit yet: once player pay becomes fully normalized (and yes, it’s only going up even after collective bargaining/salary caps), head coach salaries are coming down. They have to.

Facts:

Average NFL HC salary: $6.6M

Average SEC HC salary: $8.1M

Big Ten: $6.8M

ACC: $5.8M

College coaches — especially in the SEC — are getting paid more than NFL coaches. That’s not sustainable when you now have to pay the roster too.


And at LSU specifically? Brian Kelly was making about $10M per year. LSU’s total projected athlete revenue-share pool is around $20M. One coach was eating roughly half of the players’ compensation pot by himself.

Tell me how that math works long-term.

This model is collapsing. The market will correct. LSU needs to get ahead of it instead of clinging to “but that’s how it’s always been.”
Posted by loogaroo
Welsh
Member since Dec 2005
39130 posts
Posted on 10/30/25 at 3:18 pm to
Preach!!

We maxed out the credit card and most of the board want's us to write a hot check.

The BK deal brought it all to a head. Unfortunately we have to be the whipping boy.

Ironically it started here with Saban.
This post was edited on 10/30/25 at 3:22 pm
Posted by CalTiger53
California
Member since Oct 2011
9569 posts
Posted on 10/30/25 at 3:21 pm to
LSU can and should lead to change the model to performance based model.
Posted by how333
Member since Dec 2020
3845 posts
Posted on 10/30/25 at 3:22 pm to
$10 million per year: 60-hour work week = $3200 per hour
84-hour work week = $2289 per hour

Posted by NotaStarGazer
Member since Dec 2023
2545 posts
Posted on 10/30/25 at 3:23 pm to
quote:

LSU’s total projected athlete revenue-share pool is around $20M. One coach was eating roughly half of the players’ compensation pot by himself.

Uh, but that $20 million does NOT include booster money right? My brother and I have been trying to find out like hell if the $20 million is a CAP or just a guaranteed "base amount". If the latter, then your argument falls apart immediately since $20 million isn't the total. I'm ASKING if what I'm saying is right.
Posted by Beessnax
Member since Nov 2015
10672 posts
Posted on 10/30/25 at 3:24 pm to
It needs to happen. How can you justify paying a coach that much when the entire state is a broke and corrupt disaster?
Posted by ScotlandAve
Member since Dec 2024
329 posts
Posted on 10/30/25 at 3:27 pm to
quote:

Uh, but that $20 million does NOT include booster money right? My brother and I have been trying to find out like hell if the $20 million is a CAP or just a guaranteed "base amount". If the latter, then your argument falls apart immediately since $20 million isn't the total. I'm ASKING if what I'm saying is right.



It’s not a hard cap — you’re right that booster/NIL collective money can still flow on top of the $20M. But that actually strengthens the point, it doesn’t break it.

The $20M is the baseline revenue-share obligation tied to media rights and structured compensation — meaning that’s the minimum guaranteed player-comp amount LSU has to plan for on its books.

Boosters can add whatever they want, sure. But whether the total ends up being $20M, $30M, or $40M+ when you factor in donors… the math still points the same direction:

You can’t keep paying one coach $10M+ plus pay the roster plus keep expanding support staff plus compete with SEC/NFL facilities and recruiting budgets forever.

Something has to give. And historically, when labor costs go up, executive salaries normalize, not the other way around.

So even if $20M is just the “floor,” the trend still holds — player pay rising = coaching pay pressure.

The bubble doesn’t pop because of the exact number.
It pops because the business model changes.
Posted by LSUminati
Member since Jan 2017
3966 posts
Posted on 10/30/25 at 3:28 pm to
Great post. More and more schools will balk at established coaches asking for guaranteed contracts and say “no thanks, I’ll go to this coordinator instead” and then the established coaches will lose their bargaining power.
Posted by NotaStarGazer
Member since Dec 2023
2545 posts
Posted on 10/30/25 at 3:28 pm to
quote:

It needs to happen. How can you justify paying a coach that much when the entire state is a broke and corrupt disaster?


Agree it needs to happen but your reasoning is flawed. Since $0.00 tax dollars go to LSU athletics, paying a coach or improving the stadium, etc has absolutely nothing to do with the way the state of LA is run.
Posted by Chalkywhite84
New orleans
Member since Dec 2016
33144 posts
Posted on 10/30/25 at 3:33 pm to
quote:

Great post. More and more schools will balk at established coaches asking for guaranteed contracts and say “no thanks, I’ll go to this coordinator instead” and then the established coaches will lose their bargaining power.


I doubt that.
Posted by Ingeniero
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2013
21674 posts
Posted on 10/30/25 at 3:38 pm to
I agree that a correction is coming (and is necessary) but I think loudly broadcasting that you'll be leading that correction makes you an easy target. Especially since multiple schools are looking for a coach this season, you don't want to make your position any worse. Proclaiming that you'll be the school that's leading the charge on paying coaches less guaranteed money is just negative recruitment. You know that whole "first one to talk, loses" thing in sales? We're shouting through a megaphone right now.
Posted by L5UT1ger
Member since Feb 2004
2912 posts
Posted on 10/30/25 at 3:39 pm to
LSU can dodge the bullet by hiring the younger up and comer versus poaching the established guy.
Posted by ScotlandAve
Member since Dec 2024
329 posts
Posted on 10/30/25 at 3:41 pm to
Fair take — and you’re absolutely right about the “first one to talk loses” rule. No school should publicly announce they’re cutting coach pay; that’s suicide in recruiting and optics.

But leading the correction doesn’t have to mean announcing it. It means structuring smarter contracts — more performance-based incentives, smaller guaranteed buyouts, shorter terms, and aligning pay with on-field results and NIL realities. LSU doesn’t need to hold a press conference about it — just quietly start doing it while everyone else keeps burning money.

Eventually, other schools will have to follow once they feel the same budget pressure. The “loud” part isn’t necessary; the discipline is. The smartest programs will let the market shift to them instead of getting caught reacting to it later.
Posted by Topwater Trout
Red Stick
Member since Oct 2010
69370 posts
Posted on 10/30/25 at 3:42 pm to
Indiana just paid their coach 12.5 mil a year? yeh there won't be a correction with our next hire but i agree with you it's just i am sure Day or Smart probably have a clause about being highest paid if they win a title
Posted by Beessnax
Member since Nov 2015
10672 posts
Posted on 10/30/25 at 3:45 pm to
quote:

Since $0.00 tax dollars go to LSU athletics


Have you looked at what the governor said about who is ultimately responsible for the Kelly buyout?
Posted by ScotlandAve
Member since Dec 2024
329 posts
Posted on 10/30/25 at 3:45 pm to
Indiana paying $12.5M is exactly what happens at the end of a bubble, not the beginning of a new trend. Late-mover desperation spending doesn’t define the future — it usually signals the last gasp before the market corrects.

And yeah, I’m sure Day/Smart/Saban-legacy guys have escalator clauses. That’s fine — the very top of the market will always command premium money. I’m not saying Kirby suddenly makes $5M. But the middle and upper-middle tier is where the reset hits first, and that’s the majority of hires.

LSU doesn’t need to announce anything or get cute. Just negotiate smarter, more performance-weighted deals while everybody else empties the vault trying to keep up. The correction doesn’t start because schools want to change — it starts because the math eventually leaves them no choice.

Indiana isn't proving the model works; they're proving how desperate it's gotten.
Posted by Alt26
Member since Mar 2010
33732 posts
Posted on 10/30/25 at 3:45 pm to
The top 1/3rd of the NFL HCs still make more (annually) than the top HC in CFB. The way the market corrects in CFB is if/when colleges are content with hiring the NFL equivalent of an assistant coach to a 1st time HC job...then not pissing their pants to give him an extension at the first glimmer of success. For example Mel Tucker was once such guy. His initial contract at MSU was $5.5M annually. He had ONE good season, and used it along with openings at other schools (including LSU) to leverage MSU into a 10 year $95M contract.

While in theory you may be right, there is no suggestion the big donors, who are hugely competitive people, are willing to just hire a low demand coach and hope it works out.

Again, I think people forget LSU did EXACTLY THAT in 2016 when it hired Orgeron. A plan that worked with a remarkable 2019 season. A plan that hasn't been repeated with great success.

Sure, Michigan St might initially hire someone for a reasonable contract. But the moment he has success, the fans/boosters at bigger programs will demand he come produce that success at their school...and the cycle starts over.
Posted by CreoleTigerEsq
Noneya
Member since Nov 2007
859 posts
Posted on 10/30/25 at 3:48 pm to
quote:

It needs to happen. How can you justify paying a coach that much when the entire state is a broke and corrupt disaster?


The LSU head football coach's salary is being paid for by private donors. Private donors can spend their money however they choose, and it is well known that LSU has private boosters and mega-boosters that don't mind shelling out the cash to compete. I'm sure that Woodward contacted the same boosters that approved the buyout provision within Kelly's contract whenever it was first signed.

The state is broke and a corrupt disaster because of its political class, and I guess that it says something about the state if LSU football is more competitive than the state in securing a good quality of life for its citizens.
Posted by Chinese Bandit Boy
Member since Jun 2021
868 posts
Posted on 10/30/25 at 3:49 pm to
The HC salary use to be a guarantee after the coach received payment for private services like the coaches radio show, endorsements and that sort of things. That may have changed but in the old days that’s how it worked.
Posted by ScotlandAve
Member since Dec 2024
329 posts
Posted on 10/30/25 at 3:51 pm to
All fair points — especially about panic boosters and the Mel Tucker mess. Nobody’s saying emotional spending disappears overnight.

But the difference now is this:
every cost in college football is inflating at once — players, assistants, analysts, facilities, portal money. Not just head coaches. That didn't exist in 2016.

When your roster costs $20M+, assistants cost $10M+, and you still have facilities/recruiting overhead… the “just throw $10M and a giant buyout at a coach” playbook becomes way harder to justify.

It won’t stop immediately — someone will always overpay the next “hot name.” But the average deal starts changing first: shorter term, smaller buyouts, more incentives. That’s how every market correction happens.

O was a value hire paired with elite staff and elite roster management — that model can win again.
The “blank check + panic extension after one good year” model is the one hitting the wall.

Boosters don’t have to get rational — the math will force it.
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