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Message
LSU’s offense isn’t a talent problem — it’s a sequencing/self-scout problem (receipts)
Posted on 9/28/25 at 8:24 am
Posted on 9/28/25 at 8:24 am
TL;DR
We keep calling the right plays on the wrong downs. LSU is excellent throwing on 1st & 10, then runs into 2nd & 10 way too often.
Protection is fine (sack rate ~4.1%). The drag is tendencies, sequencing, and target funneling.
3rd & short is fine; we just don’t get there enough because of 1st/2nd-down usage.
Defense looks better because it limits explosives, wins 3rd down, and clamps the red zone.
What the data actually says (simple English, exact numbers)
Sample: LSU PBP through Ole Miss (Clemson, La Tech, Florida, SE La, Ole Miss).
“Dropbacks” = pass + sack + scramble. “Success” = standard 50/70/100 by down.
1) First down is our moneymaker… when we throw
1st & 10 (120 plays): Run 45.8% | Dropback 51.7%
• Pass: 10.26 yards/play, 71.4% success
• Run: 4.47 yards/play, 37.7% success
? Passing on 1st & 10 is elite. Treating it like a coin flip drags the series.
2) The drive-killer: 2nd & 10 run habit
2nd & 10 (18 plays): Run 61.1% ? 0.60 yds/play, 10% success; Pass 4.50 yds/play, 25% success.
After a 1st-down incompletion ? 2nd & 10 (15 seqs): Run 53.3%, 3.64 yds/play, 18.2% success.
Share of 2nd downs that are 7+ to go: 66.3%.
? We put ourselves behind the sticks, then lean on our worst call in that spot.
3) Money downs (we can win them)
3rd & short (=3, 18 plays): Run 72.2%, ~69% run-success (pass success 75%, small n).
3rd & 7–9 (9 plays): Dropback 88.9%, 12.6 yds/play, 80% success (small n but shows we can win).
3rd & 10+ (19 plays): 23% success (normal for everyone).
? We’re fine when it’s short. We arrive at long too often because of 1st/2nd-down usage.
4) Explosives & red zone
Explosive rate: ~8.8% overall (pass ~10.4%, run ~11.7%; 20+/10+ cutoffs).
Red zone (=20): Run 2.86 YPC, Pass 4.46 YPA; success ~61–62% (n=44).
? RZ yards naturally tighten. Bigger leak is earlier (the 2nd & 10 habit), not protection.
5) Protection & reads
Sack rate: ~4.1% (7 sacks / 170 dropbacks) ? not a protection crisis.
3rd-down target funnel: Anderson + Thomas = ~52% of identified 3rd-down targets.
? Easy to bracket/rob money downs when the ball funnels to two guys.
Defense (why it looks better)
Keeps explosives low (˜single-digits % of snaps), wins 3rd down (~low-30s% allowed), gets sacks (~5–6%), and holds in the RZ (~mid-40s% success allowed).
? “Keep it in front + win money downs” keeps games winnable even when the O sputters.
Ole Miss blame game (grown-up answer)
Yes, the penalty cascade series (roughing + two DPIs) was brutal and flipped a series. But we then punted and lost the Middle-8 (they added more before half). In Q3 we started in good field position twice and got two FGs. In a tight game, sequence > single drive.
Who’s more at fault: Sloan or Nuss?
Sloan > Nuss (~65/35).
Structural issues: near-even 1st-down split despite 1D passes crushing it; 2nd & 10 run tell; thin low-red answers (condensed rubs/TE leaks/QB movement); target concentration; little RB usage.
Nuss: small slice on selectivity/anticipation; could take a couple more 1st-down shots and get to checkdowns quicker.
? Fix the structure and the offense will look like the roster and the paycheck.
DC cheat sheet (how to defend LSU right now)
Early downs: Two-high on 1st & 10, fit run with 6; cap the shot; force long drives.
2nd & 10 after incompletion: Expect run/draw. Use simulated 4-man with ILB green-dog; close slants.
3rd & short (=3): Bear/mug fronts, pinch A-gaps; force ball wide (we run ~72%).
3rd & long (7+): Sticks + bracket Anderson/Thomas; drop 7–8 with late spinner; concede underneath, tackle.
Low red: Press/squeeze; force a throw we haven’t shown (TE leak/pop, QB movement/RPO).
Press-conference questions that actually matter
What offensive KPIs (points/drive, early-down success, RZ TD%) define a good week?
Why is 1st & 10 near 50/50 when passes are 10.26 YPP, 71% success and runs are 4.47 YPP, 38% success?
After 1st-down incompletions, we run on 2nd & 10 >50% for 3.64 yds and 18% success. Is that intentional? Why?
Who owns 1st-down sequencing on game day, and what triggers an in-game shift?
Myths vs Facts (quick replies)
“OL is the whole problem.” ? False. Sack rate ~4%. The drag is sequencing/predictability.
“No run game.” ? Half-true. Overall 4.67 YPC, but 2nd & 10 runs = 0.6 yds/play (usage).
“We hardly ran on 1st down.” ? False. 45.8% run on 1st & 10 (55 runs / 120 snaps).
“WRs never separate.” ? Not on 1st down. You don’t get 10.26 YPP, 71% success on 1st & 10 if nobody’s winning.
Exact tendencies (for the number nerds)
Per down:
1st (136 plays): Run 47.1%, dropback 50.0%, 6.84 yds/play, 50.9% success, 10.6% explosive.
2nd (98): Run 31.6%, dropback 66.3%, 6.54 yds/play, 62.2% success.
3rd (55): Run 34.5%, dropback 60.0%, 8.15 yds/play, 53.7% success.
Common situations:
1st & 10 (120): Run 45.8%, Dropback 51.7%, 7.03 yds/play, 52.6% success, 11.1% explosive.
2nd & 10 (18): Run 61.1%, 1.71 yds/play, 14.3% success.
3rd & 1–3 (18): Run 72.2%, 6.00 yds/play, 70.6% success.
3rd & 4–6 (9): Dropback 66.7%, 6.50 yds/play, 50.0% success.
3rd & 7–9 (9): Dropback 88.9%, 12.6 yds/play, 80.0% success.
3rd & 10+ (19): Dropback 73.7%, 10.0 yds/play, 23.1% success.
Sequence tell:
After 1st-down incompletion ? 2nd & 10 (15): Run 53.3%, 3.64 yds/play, 18.2% success.
What changes will be obvious on TV
Pass-lean on 1st & 10. It’s our best down—stop treating it like a coin flip.
Kill the 2nd & 10 run tell (esp. after incompletions). Add RPO/quick game.
Diversify 3rd-down answers. Get RB/TE involved so brackets on Anderson/Thomas don’t kill drives.
Script 2–3 1st-down shots off familiar run looks to steal explosives.
Keep the hammer on 3rd & short—and arrive there more often by fixing (1) and (2).
Bottom line: With a $100M coach and an $18M roster, the fix isn’t mysterious. Throw on first, stop the 2nd-and-10 run habit, diversify money-down answers, add a couple of shot calls. The defense already does the winning-football things—align the offense to it and the scoreboard will match the talent.
We keep calling the right plays on the wrong downs. LSU is excellent throwing on 1st & 10, then runs into 2nd & 10 way too often.
Protection is fine (sack rate ~4.1%). The drag is tendencies, sequencing, and target funneling.
3rd & short is fine; we just don’t get there enough because of 1st/2nd-down usage.
Defense looks better because it limits explosives, wins 3rd down, and clamps the red zone.
What the data actually says (simple English, exact numbers)
Sample: LSU PBP through Ole Miss (Clemson, La Tech, Florida, SE La, Ole Miss).
“Dropbacks” = pass + sack + scramble. “Success” = standard 50/70/100 by down.
1) First down is our moneymaker… when we throw
1st & 10 (120 plays): Run 45.8% | Dropback 51.7%
• Pass: 10.26 yards/play, 71.4% success
• Run: 4.47 yards/play, 37.7% success
? Passing on 1st & 10 is elite. Treating it like a coin flip drags the series.
2) The drive-killer: 2nd & 10 run habit
2nd & 10 (18 plays): Run 61.1% ? 0.60 yds/play, 10% success; Pass 4.50 yds/play, 25% success.
After a 1st-down incompletion ? 2nd & 10 (15 seqs): Run 53.3%, 3.64 yds/play, 18.2% success.
Share of 2nd downs that are 7+ to go: 66.3%.
? We put ourselves behind the sticks, then lean on our worst call in that spot.
3) Money downs (we can win them)
3rd & short (=3, 18 plays): Run 72.2%, ~69% run-success (pass success 75%, small n).
3rd & 7–9 (9 plays): Dropback 88.9%, 12.6 yds/play, 80% success (small n but shows we can win).
3rd & 10+ (19 plays): 23% success (normal for everyone).
? We’re fine when it’s short. We arrive at long too often because of 1st/2nd-down usage.
4) Explosives & red zone
Explosive rate: ~8.8% overall (pass ~10.4%, run ~11.7%; 20+/10+ cutoffs).
Red zone (=20): Run 2.86 YPC, Pass 4.46 YPA; success ~61–62% (n=44).
? RZ yards naturally tighten. Bigger leak is earlier (the 2nd & 10 habit), not protection.
5) Protection & reads
Sack rate: ~4.1% (7 sacks / 170 dropbacks) ? not a protection crisis.
3rd-down target funnel: Anderson + Thomas = ~52% of identified 3rd-down targets.
? Easy to bracket/rob money downs when the ball funnels to two guys.
Defense (why it looks better)
Keeps explosives low (˜single-digits % of snaps), wins 3rd down (~low-30s% allowed), gets sacks (~5–6%), and holds in the RZ (~mid-40s% success allowed).
? “Keep it in front + win money downs” keeps games winnable even when the O sputters.
Ole Miss blame game (grown-up answer)
Yes, the penalty cascade series (roughing + two DPIs) was brutal and flipped a series. But we then punted and lost the Middle-8 (they added more before half). In Q3 we started in good field position twice and got two FGs. In a tight game, sequence > single drive.
Who’s more at fault: Sloan or Nuss?
Sloan > Nuss (~65/35).
Structural issues: near-even 1st-down split despite 1D passes crushing it; 2nd & 10 run tell; thin low-red answers (condensed rubs/TE leaks/QB movement); target concentration; little RB usage.
Nuss: small slice on selectivity/anticipation; could take a couple more 1st-down shots and get to checkdowns quicker.
? Fix the structure and the offense will look like the roster and the paycheck.
DC cheat sheet (how to defend LSU right now)
Early downs: Two-high on 1st & 10, fit run with 6; cap the shot; force long drives.
2nd & 10 after incompletion: Expect run/draw. Use simulated 4-man with ILB green-dog; close slants.
3rd & short (=3): Bear/mug fronts, pinch A-gaps; force ball wide (we run ~72%).
3rd & long (7+): Sticks + bracket Anderson/Thomas; drop 7–8 with late spinner; concede underneath, tackle.
Low red: Press/squeeze; force a throw we haven’t shown (TE leak/pop, QB movement/RPO).
Press-conference questions that actually matter
What offensive KPIs (points/drive, early-down success, RZ TD%) define a good week?
Why is 1st & 10 near 50/50 when passes are 10.26 YPP, 71% success and runs are 4.47 YPP, 38% success?
After 1st-down incompletions, we run on 2nd & 10 >50% for 3.64 yds and 18% success. Is that intentional? Why?
Who owns 1st-down sequencing on game day, and what triggers an in-game shift?
Myths vs Facts (quick replies)
“OL is the whole problem.” ? False. Sack rate ~4%. The drag is sequencing/predictability.
“No run game.” ? Half-true. Overall 4.67 YPC, but 2nd & 10 runs = 0.6 yds/play (usage).
“We hardly ran on 1st down.” ? False. 45.8% run on 1st & 10 (55 runs / 120 snaps).
“WRs never separate.” ? Not on 1st down. You don’t get 10.26 YPP, 71% success on 1st & 10 if nobody’s winning.
Exact tendencies (for the number nerds)
Per down:
1st (136 plays): Run 47.1%, dropback 50.0%, 6.84 yds/play, 50.9% success, 10.6% explosive.
2nd (98): Run 31.6%, dropback 66.3%, 6.54 yds/play, 62.2% success.
3rd (55): Run 34.5%, dropback 60.0%, 8.15 yds/play, 53.7% success.
Common situations:
1st & 10 (120): Run 45.8%, Dropback 51.7%, 7.03 yds/play, 52.6% success, 11.1% explosive.
2nd & 10 (18): Run 61.1%, 1.71 yds/play, 14.3% success.
3rd & 1–3 (18): Run 72.2%, 6.00 yds/play, 70.6% success.
3rd & 4–6 (9): Dropback 66.7%, 6.50 yds/play, 50.0% success.
3rd & 7–9 (9): Dropback 88.9%, 12.6 yds/play, 80.0% success.
3rd & 10+ (19): Dropback 73.7%, 10.0 yds/play, 23.1% success.
Sequence tell:
After 1st-down incompletion ? 2nd & 10 (15): Run 53.3%, 3.64 yds/play, 18.2% success.
What changes will be obvious on TV
Pass-lean on 1st & 10. It’s our best down—stop treating it like a coin flip.
Kill the 2nd & 10 run tell (esp. after incompletions). Add RPO/quick game.
Diversify 3rd-down answers. Get RB/TE involved so brackets on Anderson/Thomas don’t kill drives.
Script 2–3 1st-down shots off familiar run looks to steal explosives.
Keep the hammer on 3rd & short—and arrive there more often by fixing (1) and (2).
Bottom line: With a $100M coach and an $18M roster, the fix isn’t mysterious. Throw on first, stop the 2nd-and-10 run habit, diversify money-down answers, add a couple of shot calls. The defense already does the winning-football things—align the offense to it and the scoreboard will match the talent.
25
Posted on 9/28/25 at 8:26 am to Ebridg3
You put some thought into that
Posted on 9/28/25 at 8:28 am to Ebridg3
Apparently you like stats. Here’s a few for you:
84 offensive plays
480 total yards
28 first downs
4 of 5 in the red zone
84 offensive plays
480 total yards
28 first downs
4 of 5 in the red zone
Posted on 9/28/25 at 8:28 am to Ebridg3
BK is the problem.
Posted on 9/28/25 at 8:41 am to Ebridg3
Wonder what we're paying all those analysts to do
Posted on 9/28/25 at 8:42 am to Ebridg3
Brian Kelly problem.
Posted on 9/28/25 at 8:42 am to how333
If the offense did their part to help the defense......all those numbers are basically cut in half. You seem to try to blame the defense with your numbers. That defense kept this from being a blowout loss.
Posted on 9/28/25 at 8:44 am to Ebridg3
That's an elite post for sure.
Posted on 9/28/25 at 8:47 am to how333
quote:
Apparently you like stats. Here’s a few for you:
84 offensive plays
480 total yards
28 first downs
4 of 5 in the red zone
Stop blaming the defense. Learn how defense actually works.
You can cherry-pick totals all day, but defense is path-dependent: snap load + field position + sequence. LSU’s D got cooked after the offense and penalties put them in an impossible spot.
1) Before the gas light: LSU’s D was winning
Ole Miss first 40 offensive snaps (early 2Q, before the penalty cascade + snap avalanche):
4.57 yards/play allowed
43.5% success rate allowed
0.0% explosives allowed (yes, zero)
37.5% 3rd-down conversions allowed
That’s winning defense. You don’t hold a tempo offense to zero explosives for 40 snaps if the D is “the problem.”
2) The sequence that flipped the game (this is on discipline + offense)
Mid-2Q, one sequence gives Ole Miss a free TD:
Roughing the passer on 1st & 20 (turns a behind-the-sticks into 1st down).
DPI wipes out an LSU interception at the LSU 29.
Second DPI moves it to the LSU 15.
TD next snap.
That’s +44 free yards and a stolen takeaway in one drive. Name your favorite defense (Georgia, Michigan, Bama): if you spot them 44 penalty yards and erase their pick, you think they’re getting a stop? Be serious.
3) Why the defense gassed: the offense didn’t buy them rest
You don’t magically “recover” on defense. Once the legs go, they’re gone unless the offense gives you actual time off the field.
Offensive drive “rest” given to the D (drive duration, Ole Miss game):
Before the penalty cascade (to 6:26 in 2Q):
• 5 drives, avg 1:04 each, 3 three-and-outs, only 1 scoring drive.
? That’s not rest; that’s a jog to the bench and right back out.
3rd quarter (first two LSU drives start at LSU 45 and MISS 47):
• 3:45 and 2:00 of possession, both end in FGs.
? That’s plus-field twice, net 6 points. If even one becomes a TD, you change the whole fatigue/pressure equation.
Snap load reality: Ole Miss ran 109 offensive snaps. LSU offense ran 60. The defense played a game and a half. That’s why you saw explosives late:
Pre-cascade: 0% explosives allowed.
After extended, penalty-aided drives + short rests: 18.2% explosives allowed.
That’s not “mystery bad defense.” That’s physics.
4) Season context: this defense has carried more than you think
Other games (same dataset):
Florida: 5.75 YPP allowed, 2.7% explosives, 29% on 3rd downs.
Clemson: 6.19 YPP, 5.9% explosives, 41% 3rd downs (solid explosive control).
SELA/SELOU: Low explosives, solid money downs.
The Ole Miss outlier is almost entirely penalty leverage + snap volume. That’s on discipline and offensive sequencing, not some grand scheme failure.
5) “Do you understand how defense works?”
If you gift a drive (44 penalty yards + erase your own pick), you extend snaps, burn legs, and invite explosives.
If your offense gives median 0s of rest in the Middle-8 (last 4 of 1H/first 4 of 2H), the defense does not recover at halftime like an RPG health potion. That’s not how physiology, or football, works.
If your offense starts twice near midfield in the 3rd and gets two FGs, you keep the defense on a razor’s edge instead of slamming the window shut.
6) While we’re here… LSU’s actual offensive issue (why this keeps happening)
1st & 10 passing is elite (10.26 YPP, 71% success) yet we split 1st down like a coin flip.
2nd & 10 run habit (61% run, 0.60 yds/play, 10% success) is a drive killer.
That sequencing is how you rack up plays and yards, but not separation on the scoreboard — and how you keep your defense on the treadmill.
Bottom line
The defense didn’t “just collapse.” It played winning ball early, got kneecapped by a penalty cascade, then was shoved back on the field over and over while the offense failed to buy rest and settled for FGs on plus field. You want to talk data? Cool. Bring sequence, snap load, and per-play efficiency. Otherwise, don’t bring stats at all.
This post was edited on 9/28/25 at 8:49 am
Posted on 9/28/25 at 8:47 am to Ebridg3
All said, we have a coaching problem. Our play calling is predictable.
Posted on 9/28/25 at 8:55 am to Ebridg3
There's a lot of shite content on this board, but this is really good.
Thank you for posting.
Thank you for posting.
Posted on 9/28/25 at 8:56 am to Ebridg3
quote:tbh, I think the key to stopping the 2nd and 10 runs that get us into long 3rd downs is to run it more on 1st down and get those 4.5 yards.
Throw on first, stop the 2nd-and-10 run habit,
Posted on 9/28/25 at 8:57 am to Ebridg3
ChatGPT sucks.
Posted on 9/28/25 at 8:59 am to BK785
quote:
That defense kept this from being a blowout loss.
The refs kept it close in Oxford. First LSU game I've ever watched and thought the refs were actually all in for LSU.
The defense was good at times and bad at times. Pretty average defensive performance, but it was against a very well designed offense with a QB who could extend drives with his legs, so I give em a pass. I (and most) still consider them one of the best units in the country.
Edit to add - Yes, the offense kept the defense on the field too long, and I think that was a major contributor to the defensive breakdowns and possibly even some of the DPIs if the coverage was getting tired and getting handsy.
Not sure why LSU didn't spy Chambliss with Perkins more on 3rd downs! I guess OM designed their offense to occupy Perkins?
I've been frustrated with the run on 2nd down tendency! For 2 years it seems they are committed to running a slow developing mesh style run (RPO/RO), but NEVER pull it and throw or QB run. It's gotten to the point where I just roll my eyes and expect 3rd and 5+ because our zone run blocking isn't good enough to not pull it and throw or run to keep the defense honest.
This post was edited on 9/28/25 at 9:04 am
Posted on 9/28/25 at 9:02 am to Ebridg3
This is why BKs press conferences drive me mad. Saying you're going to lean on your defense is not a realistic strategy unless you can run the ball and control the clock. Yesterday he said his defense was tired in the first half but not the 2nd half 
Posted on 9/28/25 at 9:03 am to Ebridg3
Its incredible that fans can see it, but the man making 1M plus calling plays stills runs the ball on 2nd and 10.
And still for some inexplicable reason is calling read options in the red zone with a QB that is no threat to keep the ball
And still for some inexplicable reason is calling read options in the red zone with a QB that is no threat to keep the ball
Posted on 9/28/25 at 9:05 am to kajunman
quote:
BK is the problem.
I generally like him but his arrogance is what will hold us back.
Posted on 9/28/25 at 9:06 am to udtiger
quote:
You put some thought into that
Too much
We don’t need detailed analysis to know Sloan is a shite playcaller.
Posted on 9/28/25 at 9:07 am to Ebridg3
quote:
Ebridg3
Dude…you’re like one of those Mentat human computers from the movie Dune.
Posted on 9/28/25 at 9:10 am to Mo Jeaux
quote:
ChatGPT sucks.
Chat GPT can only do the analysis. It won't scrape those PBPs for you or scrape team talent, etc.. which I didn't even use in this analysis.
I have a betting app i wrote for myself that pulls all of this that I use to make parlays etc on the weekends. Still, there's 2 drives that didn't make it into the data set but it doesn't really change much.
I'll share it with people soon enough but right now its just python + streamlit, so I'd have to convert it to some other platform.
This post was edited on 9/28/25 at 9:12 am
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