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Fed's Bowman says data supports 3 rate cuts in 2025
Posted on 8/9/25 at 4:31 pm
Posted on 8/9/25 at 4:31 pm
quote:CNBC
The Federal Reserve’s vice chair of supervision, Michelle Bowman, on Saturday said recent weak job data underscores her concerns about labor market fragility and strengthens her confidence in her own forecast that three interest-rate cuts will likely be appropriate this year.
Bowman was one of two Fed governors to dissent last month against the U.S. central bank’s decision to leave short-term borrowing costs in the 4.25%-4.50% range where they have been since December. Most Fed officials have been more cautious about lower rates, given the potential they see that the Trump administration’s tariffs could disrupt progress on getting inflation down to the Fed’s 2% goal. In recent days, however, several Fed policymakers appear to have moved closer to supporting cuts.
“Taking action at last week’s meeting would have proactively hedged against the risk of a further erosion in labor market conditions and a further weakening in economic activity,” Bowman said in remarks prepared for delivery to the Kansas Bankers Association.
5
Posted on 8/9/25 at 6:19 pm to evil cockroach
It takes all types to make a market but I agree seems premature to be cutting rates, let alone 3 times this year. Granted Bowman is Trump appointed
Posted on 8/9/25 at 8:15 pm to UltimaParadox
quote:
It takes all types to make a market but I agree seems premature to be cutting rates, let alone 3 times this year. Granted Bowman is Trump appointed
And I imagine vying for Chair.
Posted on 8/9/25 at 9:26 pm to bigjoe1
This would be stupid, so it will probably happen. The dollar is already toast so who cares I guess.
Posted on 8/9/25 at 10:21 pm to evil cockroach
quote:Yes we absolutely should.
We should not be cutting rates at the moment.
They based their decision on jobs reports that were revised downward by 90 PERCENT!
If the jobs reports were accurate first time, rates would have already been cut to boost hiring.
This post was edited on 8/9/25 at 10:23 pm
Posted on 8/9/25 at 10:23 pm to bigjoe1
Im willing to bet we dont see a single cut while Powell is still running the fed.
Posted on 8/9/25 at 10:25 pm to TigersHuskers
Who thinks Powell announces his retirement at Jackson Hole?
Posted on 8/10/25 at 7:49 am to bigjoe1
This will upset a lot of ppl on here
Yeah no shite they need to cut 3 times. If those jobs numbers were accurate they would have already started
Powell is playing politics. But hes cutting in Sept
Yeah no shite they need to cut 3 times. If those jobs numbers were accurate they would have already started
Powell is playing politics. But hes cutting in Sept
Posted on 8/10/25 at 7:51 am to TDFreak
quote:
Who thinks Powell announces his retirement at Jackson Hole?
Nobody
Posted on 8/10/25 at 7:53 am to SDVTiger
I think we get the Sept. cut and then 1 late 4th quarter.
Posted on 8/10/25 at 8:15 am to TDFreak
quote:
They based their decision on jobs reports that were revised downward by 90 PERCENT! If the jobs reports were accurate first time, rates would have already been cut to boost hiring.
Yes but there is the other consideration that is part of the Fed’s mandate: controlling inflation, which if you have not noticed, is ticking up.
I just find all this very interesting, that the “too late” crowd has been begging for a rate cut because “inflation is under control,” but now we need to cut rates because the job market sucks.
Maybe, just maybe if some put their thinking caps on, and thought really hard about what happened a few months ago that would generate a terrible job market and cause inflation to rise simultaneously, and if they are capable of making that connection, maybe they should demand changing that.
But they won’t, because they simply refuse to connect the dots.
Posted on 8/10/25 at 8:55 am to bigjoe1
If they went .5 then .5 yeah that would be great. Powell wont but will just make 2026 even better
Posted on 8/10/25 at 11:02 am to bigjoe1
I think people justifying rate cuts because of job numbers are not appreciating the effect of immigration policy on labor data.
We went from having 60-70k cross the border illegally each month to close to 0. Most of those 70k ended up in the labor force as fast food workers, etc.
A closed border is going to distort monthly job gains. It is going to distort steady state monthly growth.
There are even some projections showing America is going to have negative net migration for the first time in 50 years. That impacts labor markets.
If jobs growth is going down because illegals are getting deported, that’s a lot different than jobs growth going down because employers are not hiring as much.
We went from having 60-70k cross the border illegally each month to close to 0. Most of those 70k ended up in the labor force as fast food workers, etc.
A closed border is going to distort monthly job gains. It is going to distort steady state monthly growth.
There are even some projections showing America is going to have negative net migration for the first time in 50 years. That impacts labor markets.
If jobs growth is going down because illegals are getting deported, that’s a lot different than jobs growth going down because employers are not hiring as much.
Posted on 8/10/25 at 11:47 am to SDVTiger
Yeah I think 2 quarter point cuts.
Posted on 8/10/25 at 12:01 pm to Ten Bears
quote:
which if you have not noticed, is ticking up
Not it has not
This post was edited on 8/10/25 at 12:02 pm
Posted on 8/10/25 at 12:52 pm to Ten Bears
Oh no…the dreaded inflation.
Explain to me why all the other central banks are cutting rates then. I saw the BoE just cut rates Friday.
Explain to me why all the other central banks are cutting rates then. I saw the BoE just cut rates Friday.
Posted on 8/10/25 at 1:03 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:Its actually a little of both. The reduction in hiring occurred in tandem with the removal of illegal labor. That’s why the unemployment rate didn’t go up at the last report.
If jobs growth is going down because illegals are getting deported, that’s a lot different than jobs growth going down because employers are not hiring as much.
This post was edited on 8/10/25 at 1:04 pm
Posted on 8/10/25 at 5:45 pm to TDFreak
quote:
If the jobs reports were accurate first time, rates would have already been cut to boost hiring.
Inflation is way higher than the bullshite government numbers. It has been for a long time though. It's more like 6% when they say it's 2%. They just change the equation when they don't like the answer.
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