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Started By
Message
Beware of Florida next year (week3 game)
Posted on 7/8/25 at 3:51 am
Posted on 7/8/25 at 3:51 am
Long story short, I'm pulling a lot of data around recruiting rankings, current talent on roster, depth, etc. Just to be clear for you recruiting rankings / estimated talent on roster doesn't matter, and my algorithm HEAVILY correlates this following statement: In general, if you take position groups and weigh them appropriately instead of looking at overall recruiting grades, the correlation is very, very positive.
Anyways, I think the Florida game will be one of LSU's two toughest games next year and they were far underrated last year. From a talent standpoint, its actually not surprising that we or Ole Miss lost to them last year, in fact its also not surprising that we beat Ole Miss... when you look granularly. Florida lost to Georgia, Texas, Miami and Texas A&M last year.
Lagway hardly got any reps until after the Texas A&M game. He had 13 passes against A&M. He's a top 3 QB in the SEC, in all honesty, its probably him and Nuss competing for the top spot unless UGAs or Alabama's QB ends up being a stud this year.
Anyways, that's all I had to say. We typically live by narratives, and our narrative of the Florida Gators has been that they have been our whippin boy since Meyer left, but objectively, on paper, the program is in the best position it's been in probably since Meyer won the natty. So, those of you that do preseason betting, UF is 7.5 o/u with _+120 going to the over... which is easy money even if we beat them.
Anyways, I think the Florida game will be one of LSU's two toughest games next year and they were far underrated last year. From a talent standpoint, its actually not surprising that we or Ole Miss lost to them last year, in fact its also not surprising that we beat Ole Miss... when you look granularly. Florida lost to Georgia, Texas, Miami and Texas A&M last year.
Lagway hardly got any reps until after the Texas A&M game. He had 13 passes against A&M. He's a top 3 QB in the SEC, in all honesty, its probably him and Nuss competing for the top spot unless UGAs or Alabama's QB ends up being a stud this year.
Anyways, that's all I had to say. We typically live by narratives, and our narrative of the Florida Gators has been that they have been our whippin boy since Meyer left, but objectively, on paper, the program is in the best position it's been in probably since Meyer won the natty. So, those of you that do preseason betting, UF is 7.5 o/u with _+120 going to the over... which is easy money even if we beat them.
This post was edited on 7/8/25 at 3:55 am
42
Posted on 7/8/25 at 5:07 am to Ebridg3
Thanks will pass along to the guys
Posted on 7/8/25 at 5:31 am to Ebridg3
We’re gonna get blown out
Posted on 7/8/25 at 5:41 am to Ebridg3
quote:
So, those of you that do preseason betting, UF is 7.5 o/u with _+120 going to the over... which is easy money even if we beat them.
I’m sure your algorithm, which I’m sure is better than all the other algorithms that professional bettors come up with and is based on the groundbreaking notion that having multiple talented guys at each position is better than one-offs that just affect overall recruiting ranking, has you really raking in the cash every preseason
Posted on 7/8/25 at 5:47 am to Ebridg3
quote:
Ebridg3
It's 4am when you posted this man. Get some sleep
Posted on 7/8/25 at 5:55 am to FreshMeat10
quote:
Long story short
I will shorten it up for you, Fl could be dangerous. Who cares what their doing now its only July no games have been played.
Posted on 7/8/25 at 5:56 am to Ebridg3
Nope. Everyone with a pulse knows the only team who can come into tiger stadium and dog walk LSU is and always will be the crimson tide.
Now, LSU on the road is a whole other beast.
Personally I’m keeping an eye on Mateer and Oklahoma. If that works out then the season finale in Norman could be a barn burner between Mateer and Nuss with a CFP/SEC CG appearance on the line.
Now, LSU on the road is a whole other beast.
Personally I’m keeping an eye on Mateer and Oklahoma. If that works out then the season finale in Norman could be a barn burner between Mateer and Nuss with a CFP/SEC CG appearance on the line.
Posted on 7/8/25 at 5:56 am to Ebridg3
I am not buying the hype on lagway
Posted on 7/8/25 at 6:08 am to Ebridg3
LOL
We lost to Florida because we couldn't block them up front due to poor center play, and having BOTH our starting Guards out (where they couldn't cover for the Center mistakes).
That's why we lost. Nothing more.
We lost to Florida because we couldn't block them up front due to poor center play, and having BOTH our starting Guards out (where they couldn't cover for the Center mistakes).
That's why we lost. Nothing more.
Posted on 7/8/25 at 6:15 am to Mandtgr47
And you are confident we can block them this year?
Posted on 7/8/25 at 6:16 am to Forever
quote:
I’m sure your algorithm, which I’m sure is better than all the other algorithms that professional bettors come up with and is based on the groundbreaking notion that having multiple talented guys at each position is better than one-offs that just affect overall recruiting ranking, has you really raking in the cash every preseason
I make the vast majority of my profit first 3 weeks of the season because then after that everyone else catches up and the spreads get less favorable, but... if you think "professional" gamblers share their information with you, thats pretty funny.
Posted on 7/8/25 at 6:19 am to jacksajester
quote:
We’re gonna get blown out
I hope you're trolling. This offense isn't getting blown out. The defense may keep us on our toes, but the offense will be able to keep up with ANYONE
Posted on 7/8/25 at 6:21 am to Ponchy Tiger
quote:
I am not buying the hype on lagway
Plus BK assured us he has receipts, so we surely won't lose this year.
Posted on 7/8/25 at 6:33 am to Ebridg3
quote:
when you look granularly
Got damn, a first on this board.
Posted on 7/8/25 at 6:36 am to Ebridg3
quote:
my algorithm
Posted on 7/8/25 at 6:43 am to Ebridg3
Florida is almost always a problem, and they were improving late last season. It will be a tough game, I’m sure.
Posted on 7/8/25 at 6:49 am to Ebridg3
LSU by 17 pts at home...
Posted on 7/8/25 at 6:57 am to Ebridg3
quote:
Long story short, I'm pulling a lot of data around recruiting rankings, current talent on roster, depth, etc. Just to be clear for you recruiting rankings / estimated talent on roster doesn't matter, and my algorithm HEAVILY correlates this following statement: In general, if you take position groups and weigh them appropriately instead of looking at overall recruiting grades, the correlation is very, very positive.
You needed to create an entire algorithm to know that the Florida game might be a tough one?
Posted on 7/8/25 at 7:01 am to Ebridg3
quote:
I make the vast majority of my profit first 3 weeks of the season because then after that everyone else catches up and the spreads get less favorable
What was your total profit through the first 3 weeks of last year?
Posted on 7/8/25 at 7:02 am to Ebridg3
Lotta words for beware to team we lost to last year that returns most its starters.
Breaking news. Lagway is good.
LSU should be a playoff team if we have a much improved D and can establish a run game…if not same results
Breaking news. Lagway is good.
LSU should be a playoff team if we have a much improved D and can establish a run game…if not same results
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