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Message
Is Google the most undervalued and disrespected company in the stock market today?
Posted on 6/21/25 at 12:09 pm
Posted on 6/21/25 at 12:09 pm
Is now the most profitable company in the world with $111B in annual Net Income and is trading at a P/E of only 18. It would be a $4T company if it were valued like MSFT or AAPL. Why are investors treating it like it is the next IBM already? Aren't we still in the early innings of AI?
By all accounts, Waymo itself could be a $1T business that the market is not giving any credit to Google for. Youtube does $40B and Cloud does $45B per year. This company did $150B in revenue in 2024 WITHOUT SEARCH last year.
By all accounts, Waymo itself could be a $1T business that the market is not giving any credit to Google for. Youtube does $40B and Cloud does $45B per year. This company did $150B in revenue in 2024 WITHOUT SEARCH last year.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.This post was edited on 6/21/25 at 12:20 pm
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Posted on 6/21/25 at 12:20 pm to rickgrimes
I think people are waiting for some administration to come in and really go to war with google re: anti-trust, so some of that uncertainty gets priced in.
Posted on 6/21/25 at 1:17 pm to rickgrimes
Anti trust is hanging over their head.
Also any recession fears will hit Google hard as advertising is an easy lever to turn to save money
Also any recession fears will hit Google hard as advertising is an easy lever to turn to save money
This post was edited on 6/21/25 at 1:18 pm
Posted on 6/21/25 at 1:17 pm to rickgrimes
The problem with a company like Google is that the next “latest and greatest” can evolve in an instant and make them irrelevant, just like Google did to the others 20 years ago.
Chat GPT, Grok and others could make their search engine obsolete. Something else could knock YouTube out and as far as Waymo, Tesla is going to be knocking them back here shortly and Uber is developing their own driverless cars.
Chat GPT, Grok and others could make their search engine obsolete. Something else could knock YouTube out and as far as Waymo, Tesla is going to be knocking them back here shortly and Uber is developing their own driverless cars.
This post was edited on 6/21/25 at 4:20 pm
Posted on 6/21/25 at 1:19 pm to Skippy1013
quote:
Tesla is going to knocking them back here shortly
I don't disagree at all with your thesis. But nothing suggests Tesla has caught up anywhere close with waymo.
Just waymo isn't profitable at this time
Posted on 6/21/25 at 1:26 pm to UltimaParadox
quote:
But nothing suggests Tesla has caught up anywhere close with waymo.
Even if you’re only talking about their self driving capabilities, Tesla is much more scalable and cheaper. I’m not sure how having billions more miles of data on full self driving is “nowhere close”
Posted on 6/21/25 at 1:26 pm to rickgrimes
quote:Yeah, its a tough one for sure. I just sold mine. I think there's fear that search has been taken away by LLMs. But from what I've read, Gemini is often rated as one, if not the, best AIs out there.
Is now the most profitable company in the world with $111B in annual Net Income and is trading at a P/E of only 18. It would be a $4T company if it were valued like MSFT or AAPL. Why are investors treating it like it is the next IBM already? Aren't we still in the early innings of AI?
By all accounts, Waymo itself could be a $1T business that the market is not giving any credit to Google for. Youtube does $40B and Cloud does $45B per year. This company did $150B in revenue in 2024 WITHOUT SEARCH last year.
Re anti-trust, what would it even be pertaining to now, especially given my above comments about search?
Posted on 6/21/25 at 1:29 pm to nugget
quote:
Even if you’re only talking about their self driving capabilities, Tesla is much more scalable and cheaper. I’m not sure how having billions more miles of data on full self driving is “nowhere close”
Waymo is doing 250k rides a week on a proven driverless tech.
Tesla currently has no certified driverless tech. Just rolled out a Geo fenced robo taxi that can't do specific intersections, and has someone in the car as the safety driver. Musk already admitted HW4 still won't have full self driving.
Going back to the OP waymo is the defacto leader in driverless tech no doubt.. But concerns about scalability in the near term keeps it suppressed in valuation.
I think if waymo was to partner with other manufacturers and sell the tech as package they could unlock a lot value. But they still are working to that goal
This post was edited on 6/21/25 at 1:36 pm
Posted on 6/21/25 at 1:35 pm to Skippy1013
quote:
Something else could knock YouTube out
Sure, WW3 could break out any moment and all human life could end, but let's hold that only against one company in the entire market. Come on man. A lot of things can happen. YouTube is only getting stronger by the day:
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If tweet fails to load, click here.This post was edited on 6/21/25 at 1:37 pm
Posted on 6/21/25 at 2:35 pm to rickgrimes
I would think that along with anti-trust they have the issue that their dominant search engine is becoming obsolete due to AI. They have diversified well, but many companies at the top of the heap have fallen hard in the last 30 years.
This post was edited on 6/21/25 at 2:38 pm
Posted on 6/21/25 at 3:12 pm to Auburn80
quote:This is the answer. AI is going to whip their heads off so quickly their search revenue model will be worthless unless they get it in gear. There's talk that whoever "gets it right" first will be the only player. No 2nd place trophy in this race.
they have the issue that their dominant search engine is becoming obsolete due to AI.
EDIT for downvoters: The theory is that AI can reach escape velocity and hit general intelligence, reiterating itself ever smarter until no rival can catch up. There's a lot of speculation in there, but if that's the shape of the finish line then second place might not be a place at all. Sorry for being the messenger of this possible scenario.
This post was edited on 6/21/25 at 3:34 pm
Posted on 6/21/25 at 6:42 pm to rickgrimes
quote:
Why are investors treating it like it is the next IBM already?
Ironically, IBM is at ATHs right now and is trading at a PE of 48. The market is actually treating Google worse than IBM.
Posted on 6/22/25 at 7:49 am to UltimaParadox
quote:
Tesla currently has no certified driverless tech.
Being certified now.
[
quote:
Just rolled out a Geo fenced robo taxi
To phase in the rollout. It can and will expand, in short order. Meanwhile Waymo will continue to be geofenced because it is limited technology.
quote:
can't do specific intersections
What specific intersections are you referencing? Do you have FSD? Also Waymo can’t and won’t ever be able to do highways and edge cases
quote:
has someone in the car as the safety driver
Wrong. They have a safety monitor in the passenger seat, not the driver seat, as a prudent risk mitigation measure as they phase in the roll out robotaxi. There are videos all over social media
LINK
quote:
Musk already admitted HW4 still won't have full self driving
HW4 already has FSD.
quote:
Going back to the OP waymo is the defacto leader in driverless tech no doubt
You need to do some unbiased research before you lose your tail on your Waymo outlook.
Posted on 6/22/25 at 8:07 am to 13SaintTiger
quote:
Being certified now
Not certified
quote:
Waymo will continue to be geofenced because it is limited technology.
Tesla rolls out geo fenced services and you slam waymo.
quote:
What specific intersections are you referencing?
They haven't announced yet besides the airport and highway so far. We will know after a few reviews this week. Since you know they haven't had any riders yet.
quote:
Wrong. They have a safety monitor in the passenger seat, not the driver seat
Ah yes big difference... Plus they have teleop operation
quote:
HW4 already has FSD
Ah yes the Tesla fully self driving. They don't have an autonomous driving mode for use. As you know for retail use. And as you stated above they have no level 4 solution yet for full autonomous driving
quote:
You need to do some unbiased research
Your post is funny and full of promises but no actual research.
Don't worry Tesla is smart for picking Texas as they are about to roll driverless car laws that Tesla will be able to blame for lack of rollout soon.
Google has "250,000 paid trips each week across Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Austin, and we’re preparing to bring our fully autonomous ride-hailing to Atlanta, Miami, and Washington, D.C. in 2026. "
BTW waymo been testing freeways already, and if we are giving credit before it happens will be rolling out or soon. As it's been tested in Phoenix for over a year
To say they aren't the leader in driverless tech based on Tesla 's promises from 2016 is insane.
This post was edited on 6/22/25 at 8:11 am
Posted on 6/22/25 at 8:34 am to UltimaParadox
quote:
Tesla rolls out geo fenced services and you slam waymo.
FSD itself isn’t geofenced. I use it on the highway all the time, pretty much everywhere. You seem to misunderstand the reason for this robotaxi geofence vs Waymo’s technological limited geofence.
quote:
They haven't announced yet besides the airport and highway so far. We will know after a few reviews this week. Since you know they haven't had any riders yet.
So you decided to make something up? Please let me, an FSD user, know what intersections FSD cannot get through. If you can’t tell me, you’re approaching liar territory.
quote:
Ah yes big difference... Plus they have teleop operation
Robotaxi is new. Why having safety measures in place before a ramp up is a bad thing is perplexing to me. Meanwhile, years later, waymo is still teleop.
quote:
Ah yes the Tesla fully self driving. They don't have an autonomous driving mode for use. As you know for retail use. And as you stated above they have no level 4 solution yet for full autonomous driving
FSD is fully autonomous technology wise so it’s clear you have no idea what you are talking about. Admin and bureaucratic regulation dictate arbitrary autonomy levels, not tech.
quote:
Your post is funny and full of promises but no actual research.
You just posted a bunch of lies. I know first hand what Tesla is capable of and even provided you videos to contend your lie but my post is funny. Just say you hate Elon.
Posted on 6/22/25 at 8:44 am to 13SaintTiger
quote:
So you decided to make something up?
It's been reported all over the news.. you should try Google.
quote:
Tesla will only have around 10 cars available for rides and that the company plans to make them "avoid the city’s most challenging intersections." If issues arise, remote operators will also reportedly be able to take control of the cars to make sure they reach their final destination.
Engagdet source
quote:
Meanwhile, years later, waymo is still teleop.
Explain what you think teleop is?
quote:
You just posted a bunch of lies
I posted no lies, you just seem to misunderstand FSD which is an L2 solution that requires an operator constant supervision.
That is not fully autonomous driving, no matter what Tesla markets the name as.
Once again I believe Google has yet to get a marketable solution for other manufacturers to use, but they are the furthest along at this time. I'm not sure what the market is for these systems to car manufacturers, but they all have competing solutions at various stages.
This post was edited on 6/22/25 at 8:51 am
Posted on 6/22/25 at 9:06 am to Skippy1013
quote:
Chat GPT, Grok and others could make their search engine obsolete.
This is why the antitrust stuff is silly. They buy/develop companies to avoid becoming obsolete. The government expects them to stay static and die.
Plus, Google has Gemini which is no slouch in the AI world and some of the biggest content libraries to train AI. Youtube alone can make them billions annual from just licensing, if they want to share.
I'm not arguing they're infallible or can't fall, but they're set up the best due to their heavy cross-platform investment and success. They're closer to the "all in one" solution that Elon is so obsessed over than Elon is
This post was edited on 6/22/25 at 9:08 am
Posted on 6/22/25 at 9:12 am to UltimaParadox
quote:
It's been reported all over the news.. you should try Google.
I don’t need Google. I need you to tell me what intersections FSD, which robotaxi is leveraging, cannot overcome? Or do you think avoiding “challenging” areas means it’s a limitation, because you’d be sorely incorrect. Risk mitigation to support a full service on-ramp is neccessary.
quote:
Explain what you think teleop is?
It’s not what I think it is but it you need me to provide you a dictionary, send me your address.
quote:
which is an L2 solution that requires an operator constant supervision.
Here you go again with this L2 nonsense. You are out of your element and can’t discern tech from bureaucratic processes.
quote:
Once again I believe Google has yet to get a marketable solution for other manufacturers to use, but they are the furthest along at this time. I'm not sure what the market is for these systems to car manufacturers, but they all have competing solutions at various stages
Waymo is technologically constrained by both hardware and data. They will not surpass Tesla’s FSD technology without re-engineering their solution to autonomous driving and then investing in adequate compute for training outside of very limited geofenced designated locations. I guarantee you that sans politics, Robotaxi will be in more cities and areas than Waymo by this time next year.
This post was edited on 6/22/25 at 9:13 am
Posted on 6/22/25 at 9:34 am to 13SaintTiger
quote:
guarantee you that sans politics, Robotaxi will be in more cities and areas than Waymo by this time next year.
Assuming you mean federal regulations is politics? Because it is basically a given that Tesla won't be in as many cities as waymo operates today because of said regulations.
Posted on 6/22/25 at 9:50 am to UltimaParadox
quote:
Because it is basically a given that Tesla won't be in as many cities as waymo operates today because of said regulations.
This just isn’t true.
LINK
LINK
LINK
And by politics I mean states who have a political vendetta with Elon and attempt to put up regulatory hurdles that are specific to Tesla. Luckily, this admin is cracking down on states with overly prescriptive regulatory power with respect to AI and autonomous
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