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Dollar dominating Euro, now $1.04 per euro. US economy in general dominating.

Posted on 12/23/24 at 10:46 pm
Posted by Saunson69
Stephen the Pirate
Member since May 2023
8230 posts
Posted on 12/23/24 at 10:46 pm
I remember going to Europe in 2009 and I had to pay $1.38 or so per Euro, it's now almost even. I wouldn't be surprised if they become equal in 2025 sometime. Lot of internationals and even those on TD say the US is on the decline, but data shows complete exact opposite. Our currency has gained significantly on every currency. In fact, I can't find one single currency that has gained on the USD in the last 5 years. S&P is increasing 15%+ every year. Most internationals put their money in the S&P 500 compared to their own country's stock market. 13 of the 15 richest people on Earth are Americans, and 1 of them, the French guy Bernaud, has to include his entire family when the Americans are counted as just individuals.

US public markets make up over 50% of entire global public market cap. It has only gotten stronger imo. When there was a joke after the Trump election that Canada would become the 51st state, I checked out their GDP per capita over time graph. The US has gained tremendous, significant ground on Canada GDP per capita. In 2011, the US and Canada were about equal at $51k. Today, the US is at $81.7k and Canada is $53k. The US is nearly 60% higher in GDP per Capita than Canada. I don't want to take in another country or state that will bring down our GDP per capita. In fact, I'm almost positive that's why the US took in Alaska and Hawaii as states, but not Puerto Rico. Because Puerto Rico GDP per Capita is atrocious compared to Alaska and Hawaii.

With all the major mega-cap tech stocks of the future HQ'd here, like: Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, Meta, Tesla, Google, Microsoft. I can't see anything other than utter dominance. I believe 18 of the largest 20 companies in the world are American. The only two who aren't are Saudi Aramco and Taiwan Semiconductor. If oil and gas declines as most equity research analysts say, then Saudi Aramco would probably drop. The one concern I have is that US NYSE and especially NASDAQ stocks command such a high PE ratio. Vast majority of NASDAQ stocks I see have 50-60x PE Ratio's whereas when I see Chinese stocks, they only have 10x PE ratios. It makes me concerned that American stocks may be overvalued. However, I have personally been screwed over by many Chinese stocks as I'm sure others have here, cough cough SMCI. Chinese are notorious for lying and cooking the books, so I guess that's why their PE ratio's are so low. They lied about Covid, cheap products, a PS2 controller I bought from China broke the very 1st day I got it. All 4 of the controllers broke within 3 days.

The most eye opening stat to me was being tied with Canada in GDP per Capita in 2011, to being 60% higher than them today in 2024. For a country that is now only 62% caucasian, it's actually really impressive. I think it's because Americans have great work ethic. Sometimes to the point where other countries think it's toxic.

Link to GDP per Capita graph of USA vs Canada: LINK
This post was edited on 12/23/24 at 11:09 pm
Posted by beaverfever
Arkansas
Member since Jan 2008
35461 posts
Posted on 12/24/24 at 7:10 am to
Good post and
Posted by TigerDeBaiter
Member since Dec 2010
10670 posts
Posted on 12/24/24 at 8:23 am to
We are blessed in so many ways to live here.

I didn’t realize until recently that Canada has a population of only like 35-40 million. I don’t know what I was thinking but that seemed shockingly low.
Posted by beaverfever
Arkansas
Member since Jan 2008
35461 posts
Posted on 12/24/24 at 8:58 am to
“Canada” is like three metros 20 miles north of the US border that are all within an afternoon’s driving distance of each other. What you see on the map is almost entirely uninhabited.
Posted by jfw3535
South of Bunkie
Member since Mar 2008
5444 posts
Posted on 12/24/24 at 8:59 am to
I was just in Paris in October and the exchange rate was 1.10 or 1.09 to 1.00. I guess my upcoming trip to Spain just got 5% cheaper.
Posted by Decisions
Member since Mar 2015
1604 posts
Posted on 12/24/24 at 9:02 am to
quote:

Lot of internationals and even those on TD say the US is on the decline, but data shows complete exact opposite


Two things can be true at the same time: the US can be declining, but the rest of the world can also be declining even faster than the US.

quote:

Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, Meta, Tesla, Google, Microsoft


I think many of these stocks are a good bet to underperform/stagnate relative to the rest of the market in the long-term. Countries are cracking down on tech company power around the world and a lot of them have been priced for perfect performance (as you alluded to when discussing P/E ratios).

quote:

I think it's because Americans have great work ethic. Sometimes to the point where other countries think it's toxic.


I think we work hard, but we also have less regulations than the Europeans slowing us down. It’s obvious the elites over there have been willing to trade growth and dynamism for social stability. I think it’s a mistake on their part, but we’ll see.
Posted by boomtown143
Member since May 2019
9407 posts
Posted on 12/24/24 at 9:15 am to
quote:

Two things can be true at the same time: the US can be declining, but the rest of the world can also be declining even faster than the US.


give us ~2 years and American is going to be unstoppable economy wise.
Posted by Huey Lewis
BR
Member since Oct 2013
5068 posts
Posted on 12/24/24 at 9:52 am to
IMO we're seeing Milkshake Theory playing out and it's only going to get better for the USD in the coming years.

Milkshake Theory
Posted by Decisions
Member since Mar 2015
1604 posts
Posted on 12/24/24 at 10:17 am to
quote:

give us ~2 years and American is going to be unstoppable economy wise.


For all our sakes I hope you’re right.

quote:

IMO we're seeing Milkshake Theory playing out and it's only going to get better for the USD in the coming years.


It’s certainly a possibility. I think this could lead to more minor economies falling a la Sri Lanka, though.
Posted by HagaDaga
Member since Oct 2020
6000 posts
Posted on 12/24/24 at 10:21 am to
Great post. This is the kind of discussion I like to learn from. Agree or not. Though I agree.

quote:

With all the major mega-cap tech stocks of the future HQ'd here, like: Nvidia, Apple, Amazon, Meta, Tesla, Google, Microsoft.

Imagine if these companies were gungo pro-American instead of ones that seem to want to keep us in check to not hurt feelings or help other nations stay in the game.
Posted by boomtown143
Member since May 2019
9407 posts
Posted on 12/24/24 at 10:25 am to
quote:

Imagine if these companies were gungo pro-American instead of ones that seem to want to keep us in check to not hurt feelings or help other nations stay in the game.


That's coming. We can see the wheels churning. It takes time (unfortunately).

I truly believe around 2027 we will be in the best shape we have ever been.

But we will definitely have some bumps before then (our house needs to be cleaned up)
This post was edited on 12/24/24 at 10:26 am
Posted by HagaDaga
Member since Oct 2020
6000 posts
Posted on 12/24/24 at 10:37 am to
Most definitely it does. And definitely can see getting there if we can just clean out those road bumps.
Posted by tigeraddict
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2007
14427 posts
Posted on 12/24/24 at 11:50 am to
quote:

give us ~2 years and American is going to be unstoppable economy wise.


We are still dominate inspire of ourselves.

Take the restrictor off the US engineer and watch it go. Stop penalizing carbon energy. Remove some regulations. Incentivize corporate investment/growth.

Hands down we are still the best system out there.
Posted by Big Scrub TX
Member since Dec 2013
38521 posts
Posted on 12/24/24 at 12:25 pm to
quote:

Saunson69
Good post. I can remember years of "the dollar is tanking" posts on various boards. Always nonsense.

Also, I would usually support over-weighting foreign equities at times like this, but I actually now think it's a quasi-permanent value trap. Most of the innovation in the world comes from the US and we have the reserve currency.
Posted by boomtown143
Member since May 2019
9407 posts
Posted on 12/24/24 at 12:37 pm to
quote:

Take the restrictor off the US engineer and watch it go. Stop penalizing carbon energy. Remove some regulations. Incentivize corporate investment/growth.



need to incentive small business A LOT more. Deregulation will help them a lot.

Let the common man build, not just PE and the bankers.
Posted by Joshjrn
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2008
31726 posts
Posted on 12/24/24 at 12:47 pm to
quote:

I remember going to Europe in 2009 and I had to pay $1.38 or so per Euro

I was in France in 2008. $1.60/Eur was painful
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
466923 posts
Posted on 12/24/24 at 1:29 pm to
quote:

We are still dominate inspire of ourselves.


Wow
Posted by Longhorn Actual
Member since Dec 2023
2897 posts
Posted on 12/26/24 at 11:45 am to
quote:

I was in France in 2008. $1.60/Eur was painful


I was in Italy at the same time. Cup of coffee, factoring exchange rate and everything being more expensive anyway, was about $10.
Posted by Longhorn Actual
Member since Dec 2023
2897 posts
Posted on 12/26/24 at 11:47 am to
Capital flight to the US, strengthening demand for treasuries and thus lowering yields, might be what saves the mortgage market.
Posted by Sho Nuff
Oahu
Member since Feb 2009
13423 posts
Posted on 12/26/24 at 12:33 pm to
quote:

I was in France in 2008. $1.60/Eur was painful

2006 Ibiza was already gonna be expensive, but add in that exchange and it was brutal
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