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Selzer’s final poll over the last 5 Presidential Elections
Posted on 11/4/24 at 5:10 pm
Posted on 11/4/24 at 5:10 pm
Over the last 5 Presidential Elections:
-Selzer’s biggest miss was by 7.5%
-Selzer missed by an average of 3.5%
Over the last 2 elections, Selzer missed by an average of 1.9% and she was the closest out of all the polls to getting it right.
If Selzer’s final poll showing Harris +3 is off by the same margin as her biggest miss of 7.5, that would mean Trump wins Iowa by 4.5% which would make a Harris victory 99% certain.
If Trump matches his 2020 performance in Iowa, that would make Selzer’s poll off by 11.2, a 50% bigger miss than her worst miss over the last 5 elections.
2020
RCP average: Trump +2.0
Selzer: Trump +7
Result: Trump +8.2
2016
RCP average: Trump +3.0
Selzer: Trump +7
Result: Trump +9.5
2012
RCP average: Obama +2.4
Selzer: Obama +5
Result: Obama +5.8
2008
RCP average: Obama +15.3
Selzer: Obama +17
Result: Obama +9.5
2004
RCP average: unavailable
Selzer: Kerry +5
Result: Bush +0.7%
-Selzer’s biggest miss was by 7.5%
-Selzer missed by an average of 3.5%
Over the last 2 elections, Selzer missed by an average of 1.9% and she was the closest out of all the polls to getting it right.
If Selzer’s final poll showing Harris +3 is off by the same margin as her biggest miss of 7.5, that would mean Trump wins Iowa by 4.5% which would make a Harris victory 99% certain.
If Trump matches his 2020 performance in Iowa, that would make Selzer’s poll off by 11.2, a 50% bigger miss than her worst miss over the last 5 elections.
2020
RCP average: Trump +2.0
Selzer: Trump +7
Result: Trump +8.2
2016
RCP average: Trump +3.0
Selzer: Trump +7
Result: Trump +9.5
2012
RCP average: Obama +2.4
Selzer: Obama +5
Result: Obama +5.8
2008
RCP average: Obama +15.3
Selzer: Obama +17
Result: Obama +9.5
2004
RCP average: unavailable
Selzer: Kerry +5
Result: Bush +0.7%
27
Posted on 11/4/24 at 5:11 pm to Jon Ham
Who?
Posted on 11/4/24 at 5:11 pm to Jon Ham
"What do the R and the D mean in the crosstabs?"
Yep. She's a savant
Yep. She's a savant
Posted on 11/4/24 at 5:11 pm to Jon Ham
Deep state gonna rig it again, bro
Posted on 11/4/24 at 5:11 pm to Jon Ham
After her interview with Halperin, all of her credibility was shot.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 5:11 pm to Jon Ham
Literally no one here had heard of this bitch til Saturday and everyone keeps obsessing over one fricking number she put on the internet. Go take a fricking walk, it's not real.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 5:12 pm to Jon Ham
I was the one freaking out about this while drunk a couple nights ago. Now I’m sober and not crying. This election she will be off 10+ points. She’s out over her skies on this one.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 5:12 pm to Jon Ham
Not looking good for Selzers
Posted on 11/4/24 at 5:13 pm to Jon Ham
Dude, You are trying this again. Your thread got anchored yesterday and then you created a alter account and posted it again at 11:00. You are out of control
Posted on 11/4/24 at 5:13 pm to Jon Ham
It’s morphin time!!!!!
Posted on 11/4/24 at 5:14 pm to Jon Ham
Troubling
Posted on 11/4/24 at 5:15 pm to Jon Ham
Posted on 11/4/24 at 5:16 pm to Jon Ham
Iowa +12R bitch
Posted on 11/4/24 at 5:16 pm to Jon Ham
quote:Why does that mean Harris at 99? One of her excuses was a local law about abortion.
If Selzer’s final poll showing Harris +3 is off by the same margin as her biggest miss of 7.5, that would mean Trump wins Iowa by 4.5% which would make a Harris victory 99% certain
Posted on 11/4/24 at 5:16 pm to Jon Ham
quote:
Jon Ham
Go frick yourself DU troll.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 5:16 pm to Jon Ham
quote:
If Selzer’s final poll showing Harris +3 is off by the same margin as her biggest miss of 7.5, that would mean Trump wins Iowa by 4.5% which would make a Harris victory 99% certain.
How does Trump winning Iowa by 4.5% make Harris' victory certain?
Posted on 11/4/24 at 5:17 pm to Jon Ham
She missed badly in two polls and was accurate in three so she has a success rate of roughly 60%. I am not sure why you are infatuated with her polling? She may be right but right now her poll is the only poll out of several that show her leading while several other polls showed similar results in her three accurate years
Posted on 11/4/24 at 5:17 pm to AmishSamurai
quote:
What do the R and the D mean in the crosstabs?"
Even Halperin was stunned by the stupidity and needed about 10 seconds to find himself to move on.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 5:17 pm to Jon Ham
quote:
Jon Ham
Define "crosstab".
Posted on 11/4/24 at 5:17 pm to Jon Ham
quote:
2008
RCP average: Obama +15.3
Selzer: Obama +17
Result: Obama +9.5
Nice job McShame and your fat arse daughter
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