Brian Kelly Barometer Game

If we win, watch out

If we lose, he better watch out

Hope our fans don't cut him any slack after year 3. He bungled the defense so bad last year which is 100% on him.

And for 10+M/yr, you own it Brian.

I do not belive this team will even come close to making the playoffs
but
we keep recruiting like we are this year and I could see the next crop of players making mulitple playoffs.

A loss here will not be pretty for Kelly. Would be 5 straight seasons of starting 0-1 (I know not all were with him coaching but still)

Heard a stat yesterday that he's 33-5 in year three.That translates into a 10-11 win season. Good enough?

I agree that by year 3 it’s time to see what you got. Minimum acceptable outcome for me would be 9-3 with close losses to Ole Miss, Bama, and another ranked team (but not like last year where the defense just absolutely blew the games). Still think the standard is making the playoff regardless.
With that said, I believe next season and 2026 have the potential to be absolutely loaded teams.

quote:

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He could go 8-4 this year & be fine, but his seat would be hot going to year 4

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No it wouldn't.

If fired after year 4 LSU would owe him roughly $50M (90% of his remaining contract). That is a huge number LSU is not eating after 4 years. He's going to at least get 6 years.

I think it is foolish to set expectations based upon arbitrary timelines.

He exceeded reasonable expectations in year 1 when he took a program that had been .500 over the prior two season and not only won the SEC west, but had them on the cusp of the CFP going into the final week of the regular season (LSU was ranked #5 in the CFP poll). Obviously that didn't work out, but outside of 2019 that was the closet to he CFP LSU had been going into the final week of the regular season in over a decade (since 2011).

LAST YEAR was the opportunity for LSU. They returned a ton of production from the year before...including a 5th year starting QB, and essentially an entire starting offense. Defense had more personnel losses. Particularly in the secondary, but the thought was it could at least be solid. It wasn't, and LSU blew what should have been their best season since 2019. BK has to own that.

Regardless of how last year went, this year was always going to be a bit of a rebuilding year. However, because of last year's defensive debacle it's more of a rebuilding year than anticipated. LSU has two new coordinators. They are replacing a QB with 55 career starts with a QB that has 1 career start. They lost two guys that accounted for 75% (or so) of the receiving production. They also lost two DTs who were drafted (though they didn't play like it last year). That is a LOT more uncertainty going into this season compared to last. So to arbitrarily expect LSU to perform better than last season simply because it is year 3 is a set up for disappointment.

Relative to reasonable preseason expectations LSU overachieved in Year 1 and underachieved in year 2. Many don't want to hear it, but a 9-3 season (even though we would be disappointed) would be in line with reasonable expectations for this season. That doesn't mean BK can't ever get LSU to a championship level. It just mean this year is probably not the season to EXPECT such.

If you want to criticize Kelly for anything, it's probably his discounting the necessity to have strong recruiters on his staff, and probably a little bit of a failure to accept that to compete in the SEC you are going to have accept some questionable dudes from time to time (i.e. guys who probably have no business being in college, but are tremendous athletes). Just getting guys who could also meet Notre Dame's admission standards isn't going to cut it. Now, he seems to have acknowledged that fact with his new coaching hires (almost all of whom have deep Louisiana/LSU ties). But it will likely take at least a year or two to see the fruits of that acknowledgement (see the current top 3 recruiting class)

Win or lose, he’s not going anywhere until at least year 5 or 6 with his contract. Also recruiting is looking strong for 2025…making hot seat rumors will only rattle that class. LSU fan base needs to chill for once.

Someone with a rational thought. Nice to see for once.

It took Kirby Smart 5 years to turn Georgia into a National Championship program

It took Jim Harbaugh 8 years.

Sometimes it takes a little while, but I'm confident we will get there.