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RCP Battleground States
Posted on 8/7/24 at 9:58 am
Posted on 8/7/24 at 9:58 am
Some are closer than I like, but this is the current status.
Michigan’s is solely because of a very screwy +11 poll.
This post was edited on 8/7/24 at 9:59 am
7
Posted on 8/7/24 at 9:59 am to Scruffy
Georgia needs to be removed from the SEC and their football national titles forfeited.
Posted on 8/7/24 at 10:00 am to SCLibertarian
Although this has been beaten to death, Trump and Kemp need to start working together.
Posted on 8/7/24 at 10:02 am to Scruffy
Ignore all polls. They will not be anywhere close to accurate until about 1 or 2 weeks before the election. Right now they are propaganda polls. They only try to get somewhat accurate close to the election so their reputation is not completely destroyed.
Posted on 8/7/24 at 10:03 am to Scruffy
most of the others include the Rasmussen outlier (Trump +4~ bias) as well FYI
Posted on 8/7/24 at 10:06 am to DaveyJones12
quote:Rassmusan was one of the top 5 accurate polls in 2020 and was actually accurate in 2016.
most of the others include the Rasmussen outlier (Trump +4~ bias) as well FYI
This idea that they are an inaccurate poll is, well, inaccurate.
The only reason I question the Bloomberg Morning consult poll’s +11 is because it give Harris a wider margin than some states like WA and OR while simultaneously stating her GE standing was only +2.
If Harris is +11 in MI and only +2 in the GE, that means almost every state except for MI would be voting for Trump.
It makes no sense.
Posted on 8/7/24 at 10:10 am to Scruffy
quote:
Trump and Kemp need to start working together
I agree. Trump is the candidate elected by the people, so Kemp needs to get on board and prevent his state from being stolen. Doing nothing like he did 2020 and letting his wife run her mouth does not help our cause. Time for Kemp to start working with the people instead of the uniparty.
Posted on 8/7/24 at 10:13 am to Scruffy
Friendly reminder trump has never polled this high in any of previous presidential elections (2016 and 2020) or primary in 2016. In fact most polls never even had it close.
Most likely scenario Trump is pulling better than this.
Furthermore, Kamala let slip in a presser “I know we are the under dogs in this race” she’s seeing the actual internal polls an knows.
Most likely scenario Trump is pulling better than this.
Furthermore, Kamala let slip in a presser “I know we are the under dogs in this race” she’s seeing the actual internal polls an knows.
Posted on 8/7/24 at 10:14 am to Scruffy
This basically matches the Democrat internal battleground state polling that Axelrod was talking about yesterday.
Axelrod may be a leftoid but at least he shoots straight most of the time.
Axelrod may be a leftoid but at least he shoots straight most of the time.
Posted on 8/7/24 at 10:16 am to DaveyJones12
quote:
most of the others include the Rasmussen outlier (Trump +4~ bias) as well FYI
Which balances with the ridiculous DailyKos poll.
Posted on 8/7/24 at 10:25 am to 2024GoTigas
A few observations.
1. I believe The Rasmussen company was sold by its founder and namesake. Thus I'm not sure we can still count on it being as accurate as in the past
2. One proposed explanation for why Trump performed better in 2016 and 2020 than the polls predicted, was that people were embarrassed to admit they supported him. I suspect that is no longer the case. Only time will tell
1. I believe The Rasmussen company was sold by its founder and namesake. Thus I'm not sure we can still count on it being as accurate as in the past
2. One proposed explanation for why Trump performed better in 2016 and 2020 than the polls predicted, was that people were embarrassed to admit they supported him. I suspect that is no longer the case. Only time will tell
Posted on 8/7/24 at 10:32 am to Scruffy
But what about the meaningless national average?
Posted on 8/7/24 at 10:44 am to TDCPrez
quote:
people were embarrassed to admit they supported him.
Nobody has been embarrassed, may be not wanting to be attacked or “cancelled” would be the more likely explanation
Posted on 8/7/24 at 10:46 am to TenWheelsForJesus
quote:
I agree. Trump is the candidate elected by the people, so Kemp needs to get on board and prevent his state from being stolen.
Posted on 8/7/24 at 12:34 pm to TDCPrez
quote:
2. One proposed explanation for why Trump performed better in 2016 and 2020 than the polls predicted, was that people were embarrassed to admit they supported him. I suspect that is no longer the case. Only time will tell
This may be true, although I’d argue that even furthers Trumps likelihood of higher poll numbers (and winning for that matter) This would suggest there are even more potential voters out there that may not admit they are voting for trump.
This post was edited on 8/7/24 at 12:37 pm
Posted on 8/7/24 at 12:48 pm to TDCPrez
quote:
2. One proposed explanation for why Trump performed better in 2016 and 2020 than the polls predicted
He performed much better than the polls predicted in 2020 too.
Trump beat the RCP average in 2020 by 2.7 points.
He beat the RCP average in 2016 by 1.1 points.
Trump beat Hillary pretty handedly in 2016 and she was leading in the RCP average by 3.2 points.
Biden barely beat Trump in 2020 and he was leading by 7.2 in the RCP average before election day. It was only 42,918 votes in GA, WI and AZ that kept Trump from taking the WH in 2020.
Posted on 8/7/24 at 12:56 pm to GumboPot
quote:
Trump beat Hillary pretty handedly in 2016
In EVs? Sure.
In actual votes in swing states? It was close AF.
But to your point, yes he ran ahead of polls and I'm not sure we should assume he won't again in 2024, but maybe they "fixed" them?
We'll find out soon enough.
This post was edited on 8/7/24 at 12:58 pm
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