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Started By
Message
Let's take a look at the current polling.
Posted on 7/28/24 at 3:02 pm
Posted on 7/28/24 at 3:02 pm
These are all RCP aggregate numbers.
General election: Trump 47.9, Harris 46.2. Trump +1.7
Arizona: Trump 49.7, Harris 43.3. Trump +6.4
Nevada: Trump 49.3, Harris 49.3. Trump +9.0
Wisconsin: Trump 48.5, Harris 47.8. Trump +0.7
Michigan: Trump 47.7, Harris 46.7. Trump +1.0
Pennsylvania: Trump 48.3, Harris 45.3. Trump +3.0
North Carolina: Trump 50.0, Harris 41.0. Trump +9.0
Georgia: Trump 48.5, Harris 44.0. Trump +4.5
In my opinion and guestimation, Harris needs to be +3 to pull off a successful rig. It's going to be interesting how much the main stream polls start to shift in the Harris direction to get her into the lead.
Look for the Fox News poll to start the Harris poll momentum in the coming week or so.
General election: Trump 47.9, Harris 46.2. Trump +1.7
Arizona: Trump 49.7, Harris 43.3. Trump +6.4
Nevada: Trump 49.3, Harris 49.3. Trump +9.0
Wisconsin: Trump 48.5, Harris 47.8. Trump +0.7
Michigan: Trump 47.7, Harris 46.7. Trump +1.0
Pennsylvania: Trump 48.3, Harris 45.3. Trump +3.0
North Carolina: Trump 50.0, Harris 41.0. Trump +9.0
Georgia: Trump 48.5, Harris 44.0. Trump +4.5
In my opinion and guestimation, Harris needs to be +3 to pull off a successful rig. It's going to be interesting how much the main stream polls start to shift in the Harris direction to get her into the lead.
Look for the Fox News poll to start the Harris poll momentum in the coming week or so.
8
Posted on 7/28/24 at 3:03 pm to GumboPot
It’ll all come down to Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania
Harris must carry all
If she does, she wins
If she loses one, Trump wins
I wouldn’t spend a dime in any other state if I were either of them
Harris must carry all
If she does, she wins
If she loses one, Trump wins
I wouldn’t spend a dime in any other state if I were either of them
Posted on 7/28/24 at 3:09 pm to tiger1014
You are correct.
But look for Fox News to start the Harris momentum in the polls. With Harris showing a +1 in the next Fox News poll it gives the other pollsters permission to show +2 to +4.
But look for Fox News to start the Harris momentum in the polls. With Harris showing a +1 in the next Fox News poll it gives the other pollsters permission to show +2 to +4.
This post was edited on 7/28/24 at 3:10 pm
Posted on 7/28/24 at 3:11 pm to GumboPot
PredictIt current has it at Trump 53¢ / Harris 49¢
Posted on 7/28/24 at 3:12 pm to GumboPot
I never get Fox News polls, they are always so bad for Trump and the R’s.
Anyways, saw a non Fox poll today that had Minnesota at +10 for Harris. I think that State is too far gone.
Anyways, saw a non Fox poll today that had Minnesota at +10 for Harris. I think that State is too far gone.
Posted on 7/28/24 at 3:16 pm to GumboPot
This is the shite that annoys me. These are the polls that matter. Media (and idiot posters here) talk about the polls being even but always referring to the national polls where NY and CA wildly skew the numbers. Trump is currently on a great path and Kamala is only coming down once people remember why she barely got 3% in the Democrat primary a couple years ago.
Posted on 7/28/24 at 3:17 pm to tiger1014
quote:
It’ll all come down to Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania
None of these states have done anything to prevent late night mail ballot shenanigans.
Posted on 7/28/24 at 3:20 pm to tiger1014
Not if she wins AZ which I think she will do. Maga Kerry Lake lost to a Democrat. She can lose either Wis or Mich. She absolutely has to have PA. That’s why she should pick Shapiro as VP.
Posted on 7/28/24 at 3:23 pm to tiger1014
quote:
I wouldn’t spend a dime in any other state if I were either of them
I would add New Jersey, New York, and Nevada
Posted on 7/28/24 at 3:24 pm to GumboPot
i still think VA is a bellwether
and I want them to spend in NY to test it
I believe a Trump is going to run for Gov there in the not-too-distant future
and I want them to spend in NY to test it
I believe a Trump is going to run for Gov there in the not-too-distant future
Posted on 7/28/24 at 3:24 pm to LeClerc
quote:
That’s why she should pick Shapiro as VP.
Shapiro kills her in Michigan. Dearborn would flip 100% from D to R if she chooses Shapiro.
This post was edited on 7/28/24 at 3:26 pm
Posted on 7/28/24 at 3:26 pm to GumboPot
She can lose Michigan IF she wins Wisconsin. Wisconsin just voted in a Liberal supreme court justice.
Posted on 7/28/24 at 3:28 pm to LeClerc
AZ seems to be the state she picked up the least ground in compared to Biden. Lake will probably lose there, but I doubt Trump loses.
Posted on 7/28/24 at 3:29 pm to LeClerc
Wisconsin is an enigma. On one hand they vote in Senator Ron Johnson who is big time MAGA. On the other they vote in a liberal supreme court justice as you noted.
Posted on 7/28/24 at 3:31 pm to GumboPot
It’s crazy to me that Trump polls twice as well in North Carolina as he does in Georgia.
Georgia
Georgia
Posted on 7/28/24 at 3:32 pm to GumboPot
quote:
Dearborn would flip 100% from D to R if she chooses Shapiro.
Your over emotional tendencies strike again.
Shapiro would not lose Kamala any meaningful number of votes. You’re wishcasting
Posted on 7/28/24 at 3:32 pm to GumboPot
Look at where Trump was polling in 2020. He still only lost the election by less than 100,000 votes. If these numbers stay anywhere close to the same, he's going to win the Presidency fairly comfortably.
Posted on 7/28/24 at 3:33 pm to GumboPot
Incumbency has its advantages.
Posted on 7/28/24 at 3:33 pm to Demonbengal
quote:
Lake will probably lose there
Arizona Republican primary voters really are the dumbest people alive.
Posted on 7/28/24 at 3:33 pm to LeClerc
quote:
Not if she wins AZ which I think she will do. Maga Kerry Lake lost to a Democrat. She can lose either Wis or Mich. She absolutely has to have PA. That’s why she should pick Shapiro as VP.
Kari Lake is a fricking idiot and awful candidate. It is unbelievable AZ cannot find anyone else to run for the position other than her.
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