re: Severe Weather Rolls On: May 7-10, 2024

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Wasn't Mayfield nailed by a tornado a few years ago? ETA After this post I kept reading, and it appears so. Hope all in these predicted areas stay safe

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Yep, a long-tracked EF-4 tornado hit Mayfield December 10, 2021.

Pisco, who has been posting in this thread, lives in Mayfield.

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a long-tracked EF-4 tornado hit Mayfield

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Lies, damnable lies! That was an EF5.

I wanna meet Tim Marshall at the Sonic of his choosing.

Not really, but maybe.

I don't think it is right now. It wrapped up and was close, but has broadened back out.

A day that starts with an 8 a.m. tornado warning is usually not going to be a good weather day.

All the schools here have been let out. They started dismissing at 11:30.

Yeah I was a 1/2 mile North of the Mayfield tornado in the church basement. I told everyone in that weather thread I loved them. I felt safe, but I could’ve died.

It isn't very often that you see a 45% hatched area for hail in the Midwest. This was a hail and wind driven upgrade to Mod, so at least it wasn't for tornadoes.

ETA: Good day to throw the wife's shite out of the garage and pull the truck inside.

The large hail forecast is verifying in Missouri...

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Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1237 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

MOC099-081800-
/O.CON.KLSX.TO.W.0052.000000T0000Z-240508T1800Z/
Jefferson MO-
1237 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 PM CDT FOR JEFFERSON
COUNTY...

At 1236 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near De Soto, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and baseball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. Baseball size hail was reported
just west of Hillsboro.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is
likely.

Locations impacted include...
Festus, De Soto, Pevely, Crystal City, Herculaneum, Hillsboro,
Barnhart, Cedar Hill, Antonia, Olympian Village, Cedar Hill Lakes,
Dittmer, Horine, Imperial, Kimmswick, Hematite, Otto, Victoria, Morse
Mill, and Oermann.

This also includes Mastodon Historic Site, Sandy Creek Covered Bridge
Historic Site, and Gov. Dunklin`s Grave Historic Site.

This includes Interstate 55 in Missouri between exits 170 and 187.

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The updated maps are in the OP of this thread but SPC has expanded the enhanced risk some for today and added an enhanced risk for tomorrow.

People always ask about comparisons between events, and today's setup is worthy of drawing comparisons to some past higher end events/setups.

For today and tonight all of the ingredients are on the table for a high end day of severe weather. We have the CAPE in spades, we have plenty of shear, moisture is the best we've seen all season, and lapse rates are decent. All of this encompasses a large geographical area with a substantial warm sector.

The main drawback for today when drawing comparisons to other events is forcing. We have no main, dominant area of forcing to coordinate storm development. The LLJ is offset a bit to the South. It will advance northward as the day goes on and the surface low in the upper Plains deepens a bit, but it doesn't phase all that well with the upper trough. We have the warm front up North that will act as forcing for storms, we have outflow boundaries from these morning storms that could force storms, and we have the dry line out West that will force storms. Each of those areas is worthy of it's own forecast.

This is a messy, messy setup and it will be over a long duration with pretty much every possible storm mode on the table.

Well, they clearly botched the circumcision.