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re: Little known but very telling baseball statistics

Posted on 4/15/24 at 12:38 pm to
Posted by notbilly
alter
Member since Sep 2015
5409 posts
Posted on 4/15/24 at 12:38 pm to
quote:

So what's your explanation for the worst SEC record in forty-seven years?


I was correcting numbers and adding context. I don’t need to explain anything.

To correct something else, this is the worst start in 47 years. That doesn’t mean we will end up with our worst SEC record in 47 years. I am not happy with this team at all. But I also think it is safe to say that we will win more than three games on the back half of the SEC schedule
Posted by hashtag
Comfy, AF
Member since Aug 2005
28350 posts
Posted on 4/15/24 at 12:57 pm to
what were these stats last year and the year before? Would be interesting to compare.
Posted by Hot Carl
Prayers up for 3
Member since Dec 2005
60686 posts
Posted on 4/15/24 at 1:03 pm to
quote:

Is an "at bat" just considered anything but a walk?


walk, HBP, sac bunt, and sac fly—don’t count as ABs
Posted by Oilfieldbiology
Member since Nov 2016
38518 posts
Posted on 4/15/24 at 1:05 pm to
quote:

Ideally, the walks per plate appearance should be at least .200 or above, while the strike outs per plate appearance should be .100 or less, or at least less than .150.


Where do these control targets come from as I’ve never seen them. Just curious.
Posted by notbilly
alter
Member since Sep 2015
5409 posts
Posted on 4/15/24 at 1:09 pm to
quote:

what were these stats last year and the year before? Would be interesting to compare.



good question. Quick run of numbers from d1baseball... 2023 team -> 1263 PA, 1009 AB, 249 Ks, 175 BB

2023 Team in SEC play
.139 W/plate appearance
.197 K/plate appearance


From OP
quote:

the walks per plate appearance should be at least .200 or above, while the strike outs per plate appearance should be .100 or less, or at least less than .150.

....

This demonstrates a clear lack of plate discipline and a poor overall approach at the plate. If this trend continues, there really is no way to right this ship from an offensive standpoint.


To recap. According to OP, last year's team shows a clear lack of plate discipline and poor overall approach at the plate b/c they didn't walk enough and struck out too much.
This post was edited on 4/15/24 at 1:11 pm
Posted by ramchallenge
Member since Nov 2009
3186 posts
Posted on 4/15/24 at 1:11 pm to
I call JJ Mr. Analytics... if you know anyone close to the program, they can confirm his almost total reliability on analytics for his decision-making.
Posted by mdomingue
Lafayette, LA
Member since Nov 2010
33342 posts
Posted on 4/15/24 at 4:41 pm to
quote:

So what's your explanation for the worst SEC record in forty-seven years?



Thus far we are 1 game worse than 2011 and 2021. A big reason is probably because our first 5 series were against teams that have a better SEC record than all but one of the teams we face going forward.

Records of the first 5 teams we faced

Mississippi State 7-8
Florida 7-8
Arkansas 12-3
Vanderbilt 8-7
Tennessee 10-5


Records of the final 5 teams we faced

Missouri 5-10
Auburn 2-12
Texas A&M 11-4
Alabama 6-9
Ole Miss 5-10

I am not holding my breath here but I won't completely give up just yet


Posted by jamarr
Member since Jul 2019
378 posts
Posted on 4/15/24 at 4:50 pm to
quote:

If you strike out 30% of your plate appearances, you won't win many games


all batters make an out most of their plate appearances. it doesn't matter how they make the out. if they GIDP that's also bad. worse than a K. a K at least made the pitcher throw some pitches and tires him out a little.

worry about how many outs they make, not how the outs are made. in theory you could K 30% of the time and be the MVP. its about getting on base and hitting for power, not the specific way the outs are made.

freeddie freeman strikes out a lot but also gets on base and has power. he is a terrific hitter.

ignore K rates. worry about OBP and SLG
Posted by jamarr
Member since Jul 2019
378 posts
Posted on 4/15/24 at 4:52 pm to
quote:

if you know anyone close to the program, they can confirm his almost total reliability on analytics for his decision-making


analytics as opposed to what? random?
Posted by TigerMac81
Bossier City, LA
Member since Dec 2007
3509 posts
Posted on 4/15/24 at 5:56 pm to
Walks, hit by pitch, sacrifice hits and sacrifice flies are not counted as ABs.
Posted by TigerMac81
Bossier City, LA
Member since Dec 2007
3509 posts
Posted on 4/15/24 at 5:58 pm to
I don't disagree. They watch way too many hitter's pitches without swinging.
This post was edited on 4/15/24 at 6:07 pm
Posted by TigerMac81
Bossier City, LA
Member since Dec 2007
3509 posts
Posted on 4/15/24 at 6:03 pm to
I disagree. If you at least put the ball in play, anything can happen. Not so with a strike out. Also, I think the two most important individual statistics are OBP and RBIs.
Posted by TigerMac81
Bossier City, LA
Member since Dec 2007
3509 posts
Posted on 4/15/24 at 6:09 pm to
That's true about outs, but there are productive outs and there are unproductive outs.
Posted by notbilly
alter
Member since Sep 2015
5409 posts
Posted on 4/15/24 at 10:54 pm to
quote:

Where do these control targets come from as I’ve never seen them. Just curious.


He pulled them from his arse. Last year’s team doesn’t meet his criteria. And we are very close to Tennessee in Ks and walks and they seem to be fine. But facts don’t matter. Let’s make up shite to get upvotes!
Posted by Tigers222
Member since Jun 2021
191 posts
Posted on 4/15/24 at 11:44 pm to
Yes this team is very weak. Jay Johnson MUST hit the portal like no other this off season.
Posted by Back to Scat
Dry Prong
Member since Feb 2024
489 posts
Posted on 4/16/24 at 9:55 am to
100% of the teams that score more than the other team... Win 100% of the time. 100% of the teams that score less points than the other team... lose 100% of the time. It is a combination of "Offense" and "Defense" ... You don't have to score a lot, as long as it is more than you allow. Also, you can allow a lot of runs, as long as you score more.

Analytics....
Posted by Bayou
Boudin, LA
Member since Feb 2005
37929 posts
Posted on 4/16/24 at 10:09 am to
JJ is very Biden-esque
He gets a free pass on responsibility
Posted by Clearlake
Boondocks
Member since Mar 2022
209 posts
Posted on 4/16/24 at 10:10 am to
When fans see a strike coming before the batter…..something is bad wrong! If the batter doesn’t swing at two pitches right down the middle…..he has lost 2/3 of his chance to get a hit! Travinski and Jones are really good at this!
Posted by caliegeaux
Booo Cheeeen
Member since Aug 2004
10943 posts
Posted on 4/16/24 at 10:40 am to
quote:

This demonstrates a clear lack of plate discipline and a poor overall approach at the plate. If this trend continues, there really is no way to right this ship from an offensive standpoint.


i agree, to a degree......and would definitely need to look at stats further to go one way or the other......but i believe big ben was doing a game a couple of weeks back and talking about LSU's approach and needing to be patient etc.....and he followed that with, but, its hard to do when the pitcher comes in with strike 1, then strike 2. seems like other teams pitchers are getting ahead more frequently, and ours fall behind more. or it might just seem like that because nothing goes right.
Posted by moneyg
Member since Jun 2006
57901 posts
Posted on 4/16/24 at 12:32 pm to
quote:

SEC W/plate appearance .122
K/plate appearance .299


Damn
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