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Does anyone have a prediction on what happens when the US becomes insolvent?

Posted on 2/12/24 at 12:43 am
Posted by tgerb8
Huntsvegas
Member since Aug 2007
6131 posts
Posted on 2/12/24 at 12:43 am
Let's say the national debt is the thing out of the possible 15 that destroy this country.

what happens?
is USD suddenly valueless, even in US?
stocks crash? why?
banks close? why?
food dries up or is just "too" expensive?

Would it be worse than great depression? Why?

Do the investment gurus around here see a hedge for that beyond "physical assets" (food, water, protection, etc)?

I've pushed my financial advisor on that several times.... but he's a steady guy basing things on historical performance not hypothetical future events.
Posted by M. A. Ryland
silver spring, MD
Member since Dec 2005
2075 posts
Posted on 2/12/24 at 12:52 am to
War
Posted by Tunasntigers92
The Boot
Member since Sep 2014
24041 posts
Posted on 2/12/24 at 12:52 am to
National debt will not be what brings this country to it's knees, the entire topic is more or less just a talking point.
Posted by POTUS2024
Member since Nov 2022
15022 posts
Posted on 2/12/24 at 12:58 am to
Massive contraction with civil unrest is the most likely outcome.

If no one wants to buy US debt then the government either prints the money to keep things going, or everything starts getting cut.

There is only one guarantee - the govt will choose a course of action that protects itself and hoards more power for itself. That pretty much means more power for government and less freedom for the People.
Posted by Bard
Definitely NOT an admin
Member since Oct 2008
52878 posts
Posted on 2/12/24 at 6:17 am to
quote:

Let's say the national debt is the thing out of the possible 15 that destroy this country.

what happens?
is USD suddenly valueless, even in US?
stocks crash? why?
banks close? why?
food dries up or is just "too" expensive?

Would it be worse than great depression? Why?


This is all a HUGE unknown, so anything is just speculation (with some using history as a framework for what may happen). One of the biggest aspects (to me) is that the USD is the primary world reserve currency and as such more international transactions are done with the USD than any other currency - by far.

This means much (if not all) of the international community would take a massive economic hit as well.

So if it were to happen, it might start with the Treasury missing an auction (which nearly happened last Fall). For this to happen, the Fed would have to not be able to (or just refuse to) buy up the excess debt. With so much of the world's economy impacted by the value of the USD, it may even take two successive missed auctions but the first one would still take a big toll on the USD's value internationally.

Another big aspect of this is that the federal government would then have to figure out how to operate without the funds which would have come in had that auction not failed. Instead of stories about a "government shutdown" due to not passing some sort of spending package, we would finally be hearing about a "government shutdown" due to not being able to auction off debt. The news would, of course, then complain about "how could this happen" when it's been a growing concern they should have been watching for at least the last twenty years.

From this, we would likely see prices skyrocket like nothing we've ever seen before. Interest rates would have to rise to the point where literally no one would be able to borrow money (rates over 20%, perhaps?) in order to attempt to tame inflation. That would mean massive layoffs and business (and bank) failures while also social programs from the state and federal governments would dry up.

If this worked, it would take at least a year of rates being that high before we saw a significant slowdown in inflation. Farmers live largely on borrowing for planting, then paying loans back after planting. As we saw in the 80's with Volker's rates, many farms would likely go under which would mean less food at the local grocery stores. As people got more frustrated and hungry while seeing the government "doing nothing to help us", civil disobedience would increase.

All of this would likely force changes in how people view things and those changes could run all sorts of gamuts. Violent crimes may cause a push for greater law enforcement, but the lack of state and local tax revenues may cause too many cops to be fired to enforce the law (which may then cause citizens to take self-defense up a notch). Lack of social program money keeping poor neighborhoods afloat may force some in them to become more self-sustaining and personally responsible, some may dry up as people there move just to find a place where they can get food.

All of that is just one possibility.
Posted by TerryDawg03
The Deep South
Member since Dec 2012
16491 posts
Posted on 2/12/24 at 6:41 am to
Hyperinflation like the Weimar Republic followed by a bunch of angry foreign debt holders who could start a war over it.
Posted by tigersbh
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2005
10710 posts
Posted on 2/12/24 at 6:45 am to
Hyperinflation to the point that we cannot afford much of anything, including food. We join with the new economic/political/religious system rising in Europe. Just take the mark (666-related microchip) and he will be able to buy and sell again, per Revelation 13:16-17.
Posted by aTmTexas Dillo
East Texas Lake
Member since Sep 2018
16637 posts
Posted on 2/12/24 at 6:47 am to
Confiscatory taxes. Half your 401s and IRAs.
Posted by glassart
Member since Apr 2021
404 posts
Posted on 2/12/24 at 6:53 am to
quote:

I've pushed my financial advisor on that several times.... but he's a steady guy basing things on historical performance not hypothetical future events


No offense intended but your guy went into finance because he is a color inside the lines personality type.

Grid Independent Systems.

Before he died T Boone Pickens was buying up water rights. He was ahead of his time but he saw an expiration date on our form of DEI culture delivering the basics like trash pickup and clean water.

My hypothesis based upon current trends is that the elites will release multiple slotted viruses based on genetic data from 23&Me and other bio weapon umbrella corporations. They will hunker down for six months to a year while allowing mass depopulation of locked down urban cores.

Posted by ManWithNoNsme
Member since Feb 2022
513 posts
Posted on 2/12/24 at 7:01 am to
That’s why I have a frick ton of ammunition. All these preppers. It’s going to be Mad Max. The dollar will be worthless. Guns and ammunition will rule.
Posted by udtiger
Over your left shoulder
Member since Nov 2006
102174 posts
Posted on 2/12/24 at 7:30 am to
Becomes?
Posted by Mike da Tigah
Bravo Romeo Lima Alpha
Member since Feb 2005
59682 posts
Posted on 2/12/24 at 7:34 am to
I’ll take a stab at it.

330 million people, the majority of whom don’t know how to cook, can, preserve, and sustain their life without daily and weekly trips to a grocery store or restaurants for food, who live in houses not conducive to living without electricity and other basic services,

In difference to the Great Depression, most people simply do not have the basic skill sets to survive something of that magnitude or the local infrastructure to support themselves, which is why the only real chance people have is to get out of the cities with the quickness.

Posted by APHA
Corpus Christi
Member since Mar 2013
352 posts
Posted on 2/12/24 at 7:36 am to
BTC @ 3MM.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
432163 posts
Posted on 2/12/24 at 8:20 am to
quote:

Let's say the national debt is the thing out of the possible 15 that destroy this country.


The world implodes, wars break out as the chaos ensues, and everyone takes major steps back in terms of living standards. We're likely living closer to the 1500s than 1900s within a decade.
Posted by teke184
Zachary, LA
Member since Jan 2007
98939 posts
Posted on 2/12/24 at 8:34 am to
Posted by Semper Gumby
Member since Dec 2021
378 posts
Posted on 2/12/24 at 7:26 pm to
The same things that happened in Venezuela, but on a larger scale and more violent. We have a much more heavily armed populace than Venezuela. Hyperinflation, eating cats and dogs, parents selling their children into prostitution.
This post was edited on 2/12/24 at 7:31 pm
Posted by Covingtontiger77
Member since Dec 2015
10936 posts
Posted on 2/12/24 at 8:35 pm to

quote:

Does anyone have a prediction on what happens when the US becomes insolvent?



This post was edited on 2/12/24 at 8:37 pm
Posted by lake chuck fan
westlake
Member since Aug 2011
12104 posts
Posted on 2/12/24 at 8:40 pm to
Massive inflation, and unbridled chaos. The big cities will become jungles and the weak will vanish.
Small rural communities will bind together and form secured, fortified, areas, protecting their own. Everyone else will be subject to the rule of survival, only the strongest survive. No law enforcement will exist.
Posted by LSUFanHouston
NOLA
Member since Jul 2009
37846 posts
Posted on 2/12/24 at 8:42 pm to
The US only really becomes insolvent is if people stop buying our debt. Otherwise, we just keep issuing more debt.

As bad as our debt situation is... much of the rest of the industrialized world is in much worse shape.

If that changes... whatever causes those changes is going to cause a global meltdown.

So, us becoming insolvent will be an effect, not a cause.
Posted by goatmilker
Castle Anthrax
Member since Feb 2009
65654 posts
Posted on 2/12/24 at 8:49 pm to
quote:

but he's a steady guy basing things on historical performance not hypothetical future events.












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