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re: U.S. economy added 353,000 jobs in January

Posted on 2/2/24 at 10:53 am to
Posted by AquaVitae
Member since May 2022
97 posts
Posted on 2/2/24 at 10:53 am to
Actually a quick overview shows two important things: 1) seasonal adjustments (made up estimates) are huge in this report and 2) the economy lost full time jobs and gained part time jobs. This is the main reason for the divergence between the establishment and household surveys…the establishment survey (the one being discussed here) allows for double counting whereas the other does not. So if I’m fired from my full time job and have to take up two (or more) part time jobs to make ends meet the establishment survey counts that as 2 (or more jobs) vs the household counts that as 1 employed person. The household survey is a truer measure of unemployment as it does not allow for double counting and that survey is showing much lower job growth.
Posted by BayouBaw84
Thibodaux
Member since Oct 2016
1222 posts
Posted on 2/2/24 at 11:01 am to
quote:

Please explain how it's a lie
They lied last year why wouldn’t they lie again?
Posted by Tiger Ree
Houston
Member since Jun 2004
24558 posts
Posted on 2/2/24 at 11:17 am to
I know a few people who have been layed off from different companies recently. Haven't heard of anyone getting new jobs
Posted by BHS78
Member since May 2017
2158 posts
Posted on 2/2/24 at 11:22 am to
Sure we did, don't believe what you read about companies laying off
Posted by 3nOut
Central Texas, TX
Member since Jan 2013
29133 posts
Posted on 2/2/24 at 11:24 am to
quote:


With all that being said, yes most of these jobs are low end and government so I admit it's not a completely rosy picture. And yes, things are going to trend down in the not too distant future.

I just have fun being contrarian to those who have been predicting a crash, fall off the cliff, doomsday crap, etc any day now for almost two years.


i give some due credit to the concept of a soft landing and i do think that the fed and gov have been able to manage that decently. Again, i'm not the biggest Biden hater in the world.

it looks better than it did a year ago.

on paper.

i make more than ever before and am able to save and invest way less than i could 5 years ago. everything is more expensive for every thing i do.

Posted by stout
Smoking Crack with Hunter Biden
Member since Sep 2006
167900 posts
Posted on 2/2/24 at 11:24 am to
It's all lies





quote:

Initial US employment reports overstated by 439,000 jobs in 2023






8.7 million Americans, a record high, hold multiple jobs to make ends meet




quote:

The government quietly erased 439,000 jobs through November 2023, a closer look at the numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows.

That means its initial jobs results were inflated by 439,000 positions, and the job market is not as healthy as the government suggests.

Since the government wiped out 439,000 jobs after the fact, the total percentage of jobs created by the government last year is even higher. Increased government hiring has been driving the jobs numbers higher.

This matters because U.S. jobs reports move the markets and U.S. Treasury yields. Plus, they are a significant factor in the Federal Reserve’s decisions about the path of interest rate hikes and cuts. All that affects U.S. consumers’ pocketbooks.

"Time to stop trading off the payroll data," tweeted David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research Associates. By his calculations, he says the downward revisions came to "an epic 443,000," adding, "more than 40% of payroll growth in 2023" came from "the fairy tale ‘Birth-Death’ model" the BLS uses to "guesstimate" its jobs reports.

Again, the government sector in December ranked high in job creation. It created 52,000 jobs in the final month of 2023. As FOX Business's Edward Lawrence points out, that brings the three-month average of jobs created by the government sector to 50,000 per month. Lawrence says Acting Labor Secretary Julie Su "would not answer if this is sustainable when I pressed her."

The health care and social assistance sector, which relies heavily on money from government spending, created about 59,000 jobs.

The problem of overstated jobs numbers is not a new one.

In August 2023, the BLS issued a preliminary revision for the 12 months through March 2023 showing U.S. job growth for that period was overstated by a net 306,000 jobs. That’s 25,500 fewer jobs on average per month in that period.

Private sector job creation also was adjusted lower by 358,000 in that period, while government payrolls were revised by an increase of 52,000.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank in December 2022 also raised eyebrows when its algorithms predicted the BLS had overreported jobs growth by 1.1 million in the second quarter of that year.

The president, too, has been accused of taking too much credit for the job numbers. He claimed he created 13 million to 14 million jobs. But economists and market analysts have pointed out those were jobs the U.S. economy clawed back after pandemic shutdowns erased 22 million jobs.

In reality, the economy under President Biden "added back" all the jobs lost in the pandemic and has "created" 4.86 million jobs since February 2020. That’s a ho-hum result.

Plus, the economy "added back" all the manufacturing jobs lost in the pandemic and "created" 201,000 manufacturing jobs. Just 6,000 were created in December 2023.






quote:

Today, U.S. labor force participation is at a historically low 62.5%.

As Edward Lawrence reports, the December jobs report shows 683,000 workers dropped out of the labor force. A record high 8.69 million people now hold multiple jobs to make ends meet. The economy lost 1.5 million full-time workers since June of last year, while adding 796,000 part-time workers.

That means more workers are holding down multiple jobs to pay for a higher cost of living due to a cumulative 17.4% inflation rate under this White House.
Posted by stout
Smoking Crack with Hunter Biden
Member since Sep 2006
167900 posts
Posted on 2/2/24 at 11:25 am to
quote:

Please explain how it's a lie



Read this thread
Posted by LSU fan 246
Member since Oct 2005
90567 posts
Posted on 2/2/24 at 11:26 am to
quote:

I've never made more money than I did in 2023


You're also spending more money than you ever did when you walk out the door of your home
Posted by JohnnyKilroy
Cajun Navy Vice Admiral
Member since Oct 2012
35745 posts
Posted on 2/2/24 at 11:42 am to
quote:

You're also spending more money than you ever did when you walk out the door of your home


True.



It’s also true practically every year. The only time that’s not happening is when things are REALLY fricking bad. Like 2008/2009 bad.


Posted by PaperTiger
Ruston, LA
Member since Feb 2015
23086 posts
Posted on 2/2/24 at 11:43 am to
How does the Bureau count strikes? Are they new jobs created once they go back to work or are they unemployed?
Posted by kingbob
Sorrento, LA
Member since Nov 2010
67302 posts
Posted on 2/2/24 at 11:44 am to
quote:

It’s also true practically every year. The only time that’s not happening is when things are REALLY fricking bad. Like 2008/2009 bad.


Yeah, but usually it’s a negligible difference, not “cheap” food staples tripling in price in just 3 years.
Posted by LSU fan 246
Member since Oct 2005
90567 posts
Posted on 2/2/24 at 11:46 am to
I guess I should have been more clear. He's spending a lot more now than he has ever had
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
85489 posts
Posted on 2/2/24 at 11:55 am to
quote:

Because the month of Jan (just like last year when they claimed 800k jobs) uses crazy stats to create that. Seasonal adjustments, population control and new benchmarks the numbers are not legit. ADP doesnt match this, inital jobless claims rose this week

Everday we hear of big layoffs. Its crazy how easily manipulated libs are




Stock market at all time highs just on the back of liberals? Crazy.
Posted by JohnnyKilroy
Cajun Navy Vice Admiral
Member since Oct 2012
35745 posts
Posted on 2/2/24 at 11:56 am to
quote:

not “cheap” food staples tripling in price in just 3 years.


Which staples are those?


Eggs are at +71% vs 3 years ago
Milk is at +16% vs 3 years ago
Chicken breast is +25% vs 3 years ago
Ground beef is +31% vs 3 years ago
Rice is +31% vs 3 years ago.


You can certainly argue that that’s too much, but maybe dial it back considering you’re overstating the increases by a factor of 10 lol.
Posted by LSU fan 246
Member since Oct 2005
90567 posts
Posted on 2/2/24 at 11:57 am to
Kingbob lies constantly about the prices of stuff in these threads. Don't bother with him imo
Posted by kingbob
Sorrento, LA
Member since Nov 2010
67302 posts
Posted on 2/2/24 at 12:00 pm to
The same cheap deli meat that was routinely available for 3.99/lb and frequently $2.99/lb on sale is now $8.99-9.99/lb.

Pork shoulder which was $.99/lb is now $2.99/lb
Posted by Nola1962
Member since Jul 2020
191 posts
Posted on 2/2/24 at 12:00 pm to
If the individuals who prepare these estimates ran a business, they would be have to shut the doors. These numbers are manipulated to fit a desired narrative.
Posted by LSU fan 246
Member since Oct 2005
90567 posts
Posted on 2/2/24 at 12:03 pm to
You're full of shite. Just the other day you were saying car prices doubled in the last 10 years. It wasn't even worth showing how wrong that was.

You exaggerate all to hell on here about prices of goods
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
85489 posts
Posted on 2/2/24 at 12:04 pm to
quote:

But I'm sure the jobs report for January 2024 is legit and the economy is strong.


The economy is not as strong as Biden and his administration act like it is, of course.

It’s also not in shambles like many on here want to ack like it is.

If you don’t trust the government - which is understandable - how about ADP’s private payroll numbers? ADP shows 2,479,000 private job increases YoY.
Posted by Ponchy Tiger
Ponchatoula
Member since Aug 2004
45355 posts
Posted on 2/2/24 at 12:05 pm to
No way them numbers are accurate
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