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Is there a reason LSU is 2 point underdogs tomorrow at home vs A&M?
Posted on 1/19/24 at 6:07 pm
Posted on 1/19/24 at 6:07 pm
Am I missing something?
If homecourt accounts for 3 points, they’re saying we’re 5 points worse than them?
I know they didn’t shoot well last time, but LSU blasted them on the road .
If homecourt accounts for 3 points, they’re saying we’re 5 points worse than them?
I know they didn’t shoot well last time, but LSU blasted them on the road .
Posted on 1/19/24 at 6:09 pm to GCTiger11
They took us lightly last time. That won’t happen again. They are actually a pretty good team.
Posted on 1/19/24 at 6:10 pm to GCTiger11
Because LSU isn’t that good
Posted on 1/19/24 at 6:21 pm to GCTiger11
Take a look at the NET rankings and KenPom, I know those aren't primary reasons but they do factor in, I think.
People basically see aTm as a better team than LSU and one game rarely changes that perception. They have an identity as a stingy defensive team, LSU really doesn't have an identity, to me. If LSU can string together a couple of more SEC wins they will probably move up a bit in those. I think if they put together a good consistent 40 minutes, it will help perception. The team has not done that very often if at all. I think the identity they want is good defense and points in transition off of turnovers and defensive rebounds. I think, not sure though. Consistent play should clarify that.
NET
aTm - 44
LSU - 90
POM
aTm - 36
LSU - 84
People basically see aTm as a better team than LSU and one game rarely changes that perception. They have an identity as a stingy defensive team, LSU really doesn't have an identity, to me. If LSU can string together a couple of more SEC wins they will probably move up a bit in those. I think if they put together a good consistent 40 minutes, it will help perception. The team has not done that very often if at all. I think the identity they want is good defense and points in transition off of turnovers and defensive rebounds. I think, not sure though. Consistent play should clarify that.
NET
aTm - 44
LSU - 90
POM
aTm - 36
LSU - 84
Posted on 1/19/24 at 7:43 pm to GCTiger11
A&M is really better than they've played. I have a suspicion they'll come out like those late 60's/early 70's UCLA teams tomorrow afternoon, and Buzz will show us the real Aggy team
Posted on 1/19/24 at 7:48 pm to GCTiger11
We were 7.5 point dogs at A&M
Posted on 1/19/24 at 7:57 pm to GCTiger11
They beat Kentucky this week. They were an 1.5 favorite when we beat them
Posted on 1/19/24 at 8:09 pm to GCTiger11
The oddsmakers don’t just sit around and make subjective guesses on games based upon what they watch. They have data driven analytical (numerical) predictive power ratings. Similar, but not quite exactly like KenPom, Sargain, etc.
The analytical data suggests A&M is a top 40 team. LSU is in the 80’s. Ole Miss, for example was in the 70’s going into Wednesday night despite being ranked 22 in the human polls. The oddsmakers don’t care, at all, about the human polls. They simply trust their own data.
That data predicts A&M is 5-7 points better than LSU right now. LSU as the home team gets anywhere from 4-6 points added to their predictive number. Therefore, you get a line of LSU (+1 or +2)
The analytical data suggests A&M is a top 40 team. LSU is in the 80’s. Ole Miss, for example was in the 70’s going into Wednesday night despite being ranked 22 in the human polls. The oddsmakers don’t care, at all, about the human polls. They simply trust their own data.
That data predicts A&M is 5-7 points better than LSU right now. LSU as the home team gets anywhere from 4-6 points added to their predictive number. Therefore, you get a line of LSU (+1 or +2)
Posted on 1/20/24 at 6:59 am to GCTiger11
They are the better team.
Posted on 1/20/24 at 8:39 am to GCTiger11
simply put it's because they are a good team and in basketball 1 game doesn't change anything
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