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Is there a reason LSU is 2 point underdogs tomorrow at home vs A&M?

Posted on 1/19/24 at 6:07 pm
Posted by GCTiger11
Ocean Springs, MS
Member since Jan 2012
45214 posts
Posted on 1/19/24 at 6:07 pm
Am I missing something?

If homecourt accounts for 3 points, they’re saying we’re 5 points worse than them?

I know they didn’t shoot well last time, but LSU blasted them on the road .
Posted by TigerBR1111
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2014
6702 posts
Posted on 1/19/24 at 6:09 pm to
They took us lightly last time. That won’t happen again. They are actually a pretty good team.
Posted by TigerAttorney
Member since Nov 2017
3869 posts
Posted on 1/19/24 at 6:10 pm to
Because LSU isn’t that good
Posted by mdomingue
Lafayette, LA
Member since Nov 2010
31161 posts
Posted on 1/19/24 at 6:21 pm to
Take a look at the NET rankings and KenPom, I know those aren't primary reasons but they do factor in, I think.

People basically see aTm as a better team than LSU and one game rarely changes that perception. They have an identity as a stingy defensive team, LSU really doesn't have an identity, to me. If LSU can string together a couple of more SEC wins they will probably move up a bit in those. I think if they put together a good consistent 40 minutes, it will help perception. The team has not done that very often if at all. I think the identity they want is good defense and points in transition off of turnovers and defensive rebounds. I think, not sure though. Consistent play should clarify that.

NET
aTm - 44
LSU - 90

POM
aTm - 36
LSU - 84
Posted by Champs
Geaux Tigers
Member since Feb 2008
11755 posts
Posted on 1/19/24 at 6:58 pm to
Trap
Posted by tarzana
TX Hwy 6--Brazos River Backwater
Member since Sep 2015
26478 posts
Posted on 1/19/24 at 7:43 pm to
A&M is really better than they've played. I have a suspicion they'll come out like those late 60's/early 70's UCLA teams tomorrow afternoon, and Buzz will show us the real Aggy team
Posted by Cadello
Eunice
Member since Dec 2007
47820 posts
Posted on 1/19/24 at 7:48 pm to
We were 7.5 point dogs at A&M
Posted by mhc4tigers
Member since Aug 2016
4345 posts
Posted on 1/19/24 at 7:57 pm to
They beat Kentucky this week. They were an 1.5 favorite when we beat them
Posted by Alt26
Member since Mar 2010
28727 posts
Posted on 1/19/24 at 8:09 pm to
The oddsmakers don’t just sit around and make subjective guesses on games based upon what they watch. They have data driven analytical (numerical) predictive power ratings. Similar, but not quite exactly like KenPom, Sargain, etc.

The analytical data suggests A&M is a top 40 team. LSU is in the 80’s. Ole Miss, for example was in the 70’s going into Wednesday night despite being ranked 22 in the human polls. The oddsmakers don’t care, at all, about the human polls. They simply trust their own data.

That data predicts A&M is 5-7 points better than LSU right now. LSU as the home team gets anywhere from 4-6 points added to their predictive number. Therefore, you get a line of LSU (+1 or +2)
Posted by paulb52
Member since Dec 2019
3919 posts
Posted on 1/20/24 at 6:59 am to
They are the better team.
Posted by mcmaniacinsaneasylum
Baton Rouge
Member since Feb 2023
1979 posts
Posted on 1/20/24 at 8:39 am to
simply put it's because they are a good team and in basketball 1 game doesn't change anything
Posted by lsu4life77
Member since Jun 2010
1064 posts
Posted on 1/20/24 at 5:04 pm to
This is why!!
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