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re: Another “can I retire comfortably” question

Posted on 11/14/23 at 8:29 pm to
Posted by Lgrnwd
Member since Jan 2018
5343 posts
Posted on 11/14/23 at 8:29 pm to
Thanks, good info
Posted by Lgrnwd
Member since Jan 2018
5343 posts
Posted on 11/14/23 at 8:34 pm to
quote:

You’re in the top 5% of net worth in the US and you’re asking if you’ll be ok. Definitely a brag thread


Wrong. I didn’t ask if I would be “ok”, as in simply having all of my basic needs met. Obviously I would be ok in that sense.

I asked if I could “retire comfortably”. Which generally means being able to maintain the same(or better) lifestyle after retirement, as you had while working.

So it was a legitimate question.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
85486 posts
Posted on 11/14/23 at 8:51 pm to
Why not ask someone who does this for a living?

Even better, why not ask a few of them?

I can’t imagine planning to retire at 53 without getting a handful of professional opinions on the topic. You have 8 years to plan appropriately for things like health insurance and tax mitigation and you’re planning to stay retired for 30-40 years - paying someone to structure a proper plan is worth it, starting now.
This post was edited on 11/14/23 at 8:54 pm
Posted by lynxcat
Member since Jan 2008
24254 posts
Posted on 11/14/23 at 8:58 pm to
Makes for good message board fodder.

But, I don’t think we have a good basis of facts to make a clean assessment.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
85486 posts
Posted on 11/14/23 at 9:13 pm to
quote:

Makes for good message board fodder.


Yeah I get that, which I appreciate, but every one of his posts in this thread read like a D-I-Yer who plans to go it alone.

That’s fine for some people, but many, many people don’t know what they don’t know.

Asset location, tax mitigation, etc are huge when talking about a 30-40 year drawdown, yet the OP plans to just eat the early withdrawal penalty? The early withdrawal penalty shouldn’t even come into play with proper planning over the next 8 years.

quote:

But, I don’t think we have a good basis of facts to make a clean assessment.


We’re missing a lot.

Cars are paid off, cool, but is he keeping them for 45 years?
Posted by Ostrich
Alexandria, VA
Member since Nov 2011
8790 posts
Posted on 11/14/23 at 9:37 pm to
quote:

3 million in 401k, house and vehicles paid off (debt free), $1500 a month pension, $300,000 in savings/liquid accounts, 50% employer paid to health insurance.



quote:

Retirement age 53,


It's very doable but how will you get by between age 53 and 59.5 without taking penalties on your 401k withdrawal? I guess you could live off that $300k if you want. That's a young age to retire without doing anything though (just my opinion)
This post was edited on 11/14/23 at 9:40 pm
Posted by thelawnwranglers
Member since Sep 2007
38922 posts
Posted on 11/14/23 at 9:38 pm to
How did you get $3m in 401k at 45?

Roughly $20k year for 25

You must have got some homeruns
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
85486 posts
Posted on 11/14/23 at 10:06 pm to
quote:

How did you get $3m in 401k at 45?


My guess is he has around $1.5mm in it at 45 and is making some rosy projections through age 53.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
85486 posts
Posted on 11/14/23 at 10:07 pm to
quote:

It's very doable but how will you get by between age 53 and 59.5 without taking penalties on your 401k withdrawal?


Can be avoided with possible Roth conversions, a 72T, or saving properly in taxable accounts.
Posted by Sterling Archer
Austin
Member since Aug 2012
7364 posts
Posted on 11/14/23 at 11:34 pm to
Assuming you wait to draw social security and wait until you are 59.5 to draw from your 401k with penalty; the question is can you live off ~138k per year. That’s 4% SWR and the pension. Only you can answer that
Posted by LSUA 75
Colfax,La.
Member since Jan 2019
3737 posts
Posted on 11/15/23 at 3:38 am to
I wouldn’t necessarily count on a 401K projected balance of $3 million.
In 2008,wife and my 401k balances dropped by almost 50%.
Took a few years to get back to pre 2008 balances,that is with us continuing our 15% contribution.
After Trump was elected our balances nearly doubled to $2 million.
Now under Biden and me being required to take RMD’s we’re down 10% but neither of us making contributions.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
85486 posts
Posted on 11/15/23 at 6:16 am to
quote:

Now under Biden and me being required to take RMD’s we’re down 10% but neither of us making contributions.


Has a lot more to do with your likely bond allocation in the lowest rate environment in history and a lot less to do with Biden.
Posted by GeauxTigers123
Member since Feb 2007
1428 posts
Posted on 11/15/23 at 7:42 am to
quote:

How do people get these sums in 401K when there is a max of ~$23K a year? Two HHs contrib


Sometimes I wonder if they aren’t actually referring to a true 401k but maybe instead a profit sharing plan.

Max for profit sharing plan is like 66k per year.

Also people who work for government entities can put away a ton in retirement accounts. They have access to multiple account. I know people who do a like 3 different account to get up to around 90k per year put away. It never made sense to me that depending on the type of entity you work for, the amount you can put away for retirement can very 4 fold.
This post was edited on 11/15/23 at 7:43 am
Posted by TheWiz
Third World, LA
Member since Aug 2007
11694 posts
Posted on 11/15/23 at 8:54 am to
quote:

They have access to multiple account. I know people who do a like 3 different account to get up to around 90k per year put away. It never made sense to me that depending on the type of entity you work for, the amount you can put away for retirement can very 4 fold.


If I'm not mistaken, a company can profit share into someone's 401k. You just can't go over the $67,500 amount for total contributions. So $22,500 for employee and $45,000 from employer.

I thought the most you could put away, Pre-tax, was $67,500 this year. My wife is in a similar boat. She's a higher education teacher. She has pension, 403b, and a 457.

$90,000 seems really high.
Posted by meansonny
ATL
Member since Sep 2012
25999 posts
Posted on 11/15/23 at 9:19 am to
quote:

quote:
How did you get $3m in 401k at 45?


My guess is he has around $1.5mm in it at 45 and is making some rosy projections through age 53.


You think an 8% average market return is rosy?

I get it. There is never a guarantee.
And I get it. The annual sequential order of returns has a huge influence.

market exercise
Pull up your 401k benchmarks. How long does it actually take for you yo double your balances?
If you can go back 23 years, I think you would surprise yourself.
Posted by TejasHorn
High Plains Driftin'
Member since Mar 2007
11034 posts
Posted on 11/15/23 at 9:41 am to
$3MM in a 401k is impressive at 45 or 53, for an individual.

Having said that, you can consider “retiring” at 53 but working part time or consulting until you’re 59 1/2 to avoid the early withdrawal penalty. It seems you are a good planner and will have enough to still have fun in your 50s.
Posted by TheWiz
Third World, LA
Member since Aug 2007
11694 posts
Posted on 11/15/23 at 9:43 am to
Voya apparently sucks at historical data, but on YNAB I can see that from Jan 2017 to Jan 2020 I doubled my balance. I have yet to double my balance from Jan. 2020. I am about $73,000 away.
Posted by RoyalWe
Prairieville, LA
Member since Mar 2018
3203 posts
Posted on 11/15/23 at 10:00 am to
quote:

How do people get these sums in 401K when there is a max of ~$23K a year?
When I switched jobs, my 401K seeded a Rollover IRA where I could invest in whatever funds I wanted. If I was forced to stay within a 401K with non-leveraged funds then I wouldn't have near as much as I have now.

TLDR:
1) Save as much and as early as possible in your 401K
2) Quit your job and relocate the money where you have real control over stock selection
3) Profit
Posted by RoyalWe
Prairieville, LA
Member since Mar 2018
3203 posts
Posted on 11/15/23 at 10:07 am to
quote:

You think an 8% average market return is rosy?
I'm averaging 19.5% per year over the past 6.87 years.

Here's the rollercoaster ride:
2017 23.9%
2018 -2.8%
2019 66.6%
2020 58.6%
2021 35.9%
2022 -48.7%
2023 YTD 67.5%
Posted by SlidellCajun
Slidell la
Member since May 2019
10613 posts
Posted on 11/15/23 at 10:08 am to
It’s really hard to say without knowing average monthly expenses

In general, I’d say take your annual expenses including taxes, and health costs, and multiply x 25. At 53, that multiple is too low so I’d say 35.

If the result is less than the amount you have saved then you “can” do it but best to be conservative with these things
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