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Housing prices and Interest rates
Posted on 10/11/23 at 4:33 pm
Posted on 10/11/23 at 4:33 pm
When is this shite going down?
14
Posted on 10/11/23 at 4:36 pm to KRobinson
Aren’t we at least 5 or so years away from adequate inventory catching up with the demand?
Posted on 10/11/23 at 4:38 pm to KRobinson
You might be waiting awhile. Seems like everything spiked during Covid and we were told to wait 6 months and everything will come back down. Here we are 3 years later, and it's still 6 months out.
Posted on 10/11/23 at 4:45 pm to KRobinson
These are two different things. It may be a long time before you see interest rates back in the 3% range. If ever.
Posted on 10/11/23 at 6:25 pm to KRobinson
Unfortunately the two have a weird relationship.
They’re related but not always in a direct manner.
One thing that’s not debatable - median home affordability has been crushed, so something will give… eventually.
They’re related but not always in a direct manner.
One thing that’s not debatable - median home affordability has been crushed, so something will give… eventually.
Posted on 10/11/23 at 7:41 pm to KRobinson
Rates and housing prices are not correlated as much due to inventory shortage. We massively under built after 2008. We have a big housing shortage. People with homes are pretty much stuck because they won’t leave their homes to pay 7+% interest.
This post was edited on 10/11/23 at 7:43 pm
Posted on 10/11/23 at 9:57 pm to KRobinson
Before Covid the lowest mortgage rates were 3.6%. The mortgage rates today are about the same as when I bought my first house in 2010. The low rates during Covid are the exception, not the rule.
Now housing prices won’t recede until inventory rises.
Now housing prices won’t recede until inventory rises.
Posted on 10/12/23 at 7:31 am to KRobinson
Don’t hold your breath, it probably won’t happen. Go ahead and buy what you can afford now and hope that you can refinance in a couple of years if rates come down.
Posted on 10/12/23 at 10:53 am to KRobinson
Builders can undercut resale in many areas now. sellers will be forced to come down on pricing.
This post was edited on 10/12/23 at 10:54 am
Posted on 10/13/23 at 10:54 am to KRobinson
I just find it odd that people are purchasing these expensive homes with the price of food and cars amongst other things.
Something just doesn't add up. They may be purchasing these in hopes of interest rates going down but I could see a lot of people in trouble in 2-3 years time.
If we hit a recession then look out. Things could get bad really fast. These is no way that many people can afford an $800 car payment and a $3,000 monthly mortgage.
Something just doesn't add up. They may be purchasing these in hopes of interest rates going down but I could see a lot of people in trouble in 2-3 years time.
If we hit a recession then look out. Things could get bad really fast. These is no way that many people can afford an $800 car payment and a $3,000 monthly mortgage.
Posted on 10/13/23 at 11:00 am to KRobinson
There’s an 87% expectation (down from 89% earlier this week) that the fed will hold rates where they are in their next session. So that’s good news that rates won’t increase, but the Fed also said rates will remain at this level “for quite a while”.
How long “quite a while” is can be debated, but I don’t expect rates to come down for at least another year. After that, who the hell knows.
How long “quite a while” is can be debated, but I don’t expect rates to come down for at least another year. After that, who the hell knows.
Posted on 10/14/23 at 10:39 am to KRobinson
Inventory related.
Older houses were refinanced to 3% mortgages. Expect those won't be on the market for 20 yrs.
New houses need built. Prices shouldn't go down too much because of supply/demand.
Incomes will rise because of inflationary expenses, so prices will continue to rise.
Interest rates on mortgages will be 6.5-8%, which is statically average.
Older houses were refinanced to 3% mortgages. Expect those won't be on the market for 20 yrs.
New houses need built. Prices shouldn't go down too much because of supply/demand.
Incomes will rise because of inflationary expenses, so prices will continue to rise.
Interest rates on mortgages will be 6.5-8%, which is statically average.
Posted on 10/17/23 at 8:28 am to KRobinson
quote:
When is this shite going down?
The answer is when the market thinks MBS prices are more advantageous than Treasury bonds.
Posted on 10/20/23 at 5:27 am to KRobinson
quote:you won't see interest rates in the 3% range until 2030.
Interest rates
quote:never
Housing prices
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