- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: US Median Home Prices Crashed -7.4% In Q2, Worst Decline Since Recessions Of 1970 And 2008
Posted on 9/14/23 at 9:08 pm to David_DJS
Posted on 9/14/23 at 9:08 pm to David_DJS
quote:
in terms of ownership continue (moving, default, moving up/down), what will happen to prices?
No one is moving and no one is defaulting
So how are home prices going to drop?
And if ppl default or foreclose ppl will buy immeditely
If rates drop to 5% and they will 5mil new buyers will emerge with less than 1mil homes available
Do you think home prices drop?
quote:
Rates may not even drop next year, but even if they do, we aren’t shooting up 20% from these levels
Rates will drop its an election year. Inflation is down big. If the Saudis were wrecking us with oil we would be in the 5s by now
5mil new buyer 1mil homes. Yeah they are going up 10-20%
We are up 10% already this year
This post was edited on 9/14/23 at 9:14 pm
0
Posted on 9/14/23 at 9:09 pm to hawkeye007
The was also a shortage of housing between 2011 and 2015. The difference is there was a housing shortage with high demand. Now we appears to be back to low inventory and low demand (and high interest rates vs less 2011 to 2015).
With inflation still too high and a large percentage locked into low interest rate mortgages, the same level of demand will not likely return. If there is a moderate recession, it will be even less.
So, I don't see any way we're just going to jump back to where we were 1 to 2 years ago.
- I know of two houses that people put on the market recently and no serious interest. One of them dropped the price twice. A friend in north FL said he has had no serious offers on his house. Think it has been on the market two or three months. ALSO, winter is approaching and that is usually slow for housing.
With inflation still too high and a large percentage locked into low interest rate mortgages, the same level of demand will not likely return. If there is a moderate recession, it will be even less.
So, I don't see any way we're just going to jump back to where we were 1 to 2 years ago.
- I know of two houses that people put on the market recently and no serious interest. One of them dropped the price twice. A friend in north FL said he has had no serious offers on his house. Think it has been on the market two or three months. ALSO, winter is approaching and that is usually slow for housing.
Posted on 9/14/23 at 9:20 pm to David_DJS
quote:
So if this people aren't buying thing due to high interest rates persists, and the normal dislocations in terms of ownership continue (moving, default, moving up/down), what will happen to prices?
Just because people aren’t buying doesn’t mean values will go down. Ppl aren’t buying because of rates. This just means people will stay put. Now if you have unoccupied houses that are sky high and couldn’t sell or fill, they individually would drop, eventually. People aren’t moving because their mortgage stays the same, if that fluctuated, which it can’t, it would drop.
People aren’t building because of high costs. Also rental prices are going up which means it will be relevant to house values, aka going up.
Assuming you’re a home owner, go look up your house and you’ll see they continue to go up In value and that will continue. Nobody will buy and nobody can move.
Posted on 9/14/23 at 9:30 pm to momentoftruth87
Posted on 9/14/23 at 9:31 pm to Bard
quote:
Total deficit spending 1977-1987: $3.135T
Average annual deficit 1977-1987: $285.027B
Total deficit spending from 2008-2022: $16.415T
Average annual deficit spending 2008-2022: $1.094T
In other words, after adjusting for inflation, we're averaging annual deficits just under 4x of what they were during Volker's fight.
The estimated deficit for 2023 is $2 trillion and that appears to be the deficit for years to come.
Posted on 9/14/23 at 9:39 pm to IronMikeD
That’s based on what is put out by the govt saying inflation is settling. You can go off of those numbers or you can be real and understand inflation isn’t stopping, it’s just not as dramatic as the original 16% in that article. Yes it’s cooled off, but home owners will stay put because 1. They won’t sell, 2. They won’t take on new loan with high rates, 3. Housing is 1 variable in this discussion when other goods still rise affecting spending.
Typically a recession or deflation will occur but that technically hasn’t happened yet according to the govt. The problem is the government not being accurate and consumers are still going. It has to burst, yes, but not relevant with what is pointed out in the OP. It could very well happen tomorrow but it won’t, inflation will continue.
Typically a recession or deflation will occur but that technically hasn’t happened yet according to the govt. The problem is the government not being accurate and consumers are still going. It has to burst, yes, but not relevant with what is pointed out in the OP. It could very well happen tomorrow but it won’t, inflation will continue.
Posted on 9/14/23 at 9:52 pm to IronMikeD
Shelter, food and energy are about 55% of the cpi report
Its a big lag and is finally catching up which means mortgage rates drop, 5mil new buyers, less than a million homes
Even if 3.8mil ppl lost there homes like 08 there is still more than enough buyers
But thats not going to happen
Its a big lag and is finally catching up which means mortgage rates drop, 5mil new buyers, less than a million homes
Even if 3.8mil ppl lost there homes like 08 there is still more than enough buyers
But thats not going to happen
Posted on 9/14/23 at 10:06 pm to SDVTiger
So, are you saying Bidenomics is working?
You're working on the assumption that there will not be any recession (or there was a technical recession last year), that unemployment will stay low and therefore there will continue to be plenty of buyers. How often has there been an inverted yield curve and no recession?
No market - stock, housing, gold, whatever, just keeps going up in a straight line. Little chance we are going back to the once in a lifetime market we just experienced (caused by the DEMs spending and an incompetent Fed). Markets don't work that way.
Can you explain why house prices were so suppressed between 2011 and 2015? There was low inventory during that period.
You're working on the assumption that there will not be any recession (or there was a technical recession last year), that unemployment will stay low and therefore there will continue to be plenty of buyers. How often has there been an inverted yield curve and no recession?
No market - stock, housing, gold, whatever, just keeps going up in a straight line. Little chance we are going back to the once in a lifetime market we just experienced (caused by the DEMs spending and an incompetent Fed). Markets don't work that way.
Can you explain why house prices were so suppressed between 2011 and 2015? There was low inventory during that period.
This post was edited on 9/14/23 at 10:08 pm
Posted on 9/14/23 at 10:13 pm to IronMikeD
quote:
You're working on the assumption that there will not be any recession (or there was a technical recession last year)
There will be a recession but when?
quote:
unemployment will stay low
Unemployment is technically “low” because of how unemployment is figured, we have very high real unemployment. This is why all the numbers are off.
quote:
How often has there been an inverted yield curve and no recession?
How often during recessions have you seen inflation continue to rise and consumers still participate?
quote:100%, but again consumers continue
No market - stock, housing, gold, whatever, just keeps going up in a straight line.
quote:
Can you explain why house prices were so suppressed between 2011 and 2015? There was low inventory during that period.
There was also a huge boom in construction, but now the price of materials is sky high.
Posted on 9/14/23 at 10:16 pm to momentoftruth87
Then you will ultimately induce another 2007-2009 foreclosure situation.
Posted on 9/14/23 at 10:17 pm to KiwiHead
Ultimately yes. When though? It should have happened. I’m not going to disagree it will never happen.
Posted on 9/15/23 at 12:07 am to IronMikeD
quote:
So, are you saying Bidenomics is working?
For some im sure
quote:
You're working on the assumption that there will not be any recession (or there was a technical recession last year), that unemployment will stay low and therefore there will continue to be plenty of buyers. How often has there been an inverted yield curve and no recession?
We are in one now. The jobs numbers are not legit. They have revised them down bigly
quote:
Can you explain why house prices were so suppressed between 2011 and 2015? There was low inventory during that period.
Since the inventory wasnt low there isnt much to explain
Posted on 9/15/23 at 12:16 am to Timeoday
quote:Meh. The price spike preceeding this was way more extreme than either of those two scenarios. Stop being a drama queen.
This is particulary dangerous since it was the worst correction in home prices since two rather nasty recessions
Posted on 9/15/23 at 12:17 am to Padme
quote:Crippling the economy is taking a tiny bit off the price of a massively inflated asset class? GTFO
Drive down inflation by crippling the economy, that’s definitely the democrat way, we are in agreement. It’s subtly evil, but yeah that’s dems for you.
Posted on 9/15/23 at 7:02 am to David_DJS
quote:
So if this people aren't buying thing due to high interest rates persists, and the normal dislocations in terms of ownership continue (moving, default, moving up/down), what will happen to prices?
Where I live, despite the above, they have steadily risen.
I would suggest that it is not a good dynamic.
Posted on 9/15/23 at 7:15 am to Padme
quote:fify
It’s almost as if the Obamafag regime is at war with America
Posted on 9/15/23 at 7:18 am to Padme
quote:
It’s almost as if the Obamafag regime is at war with the middle class
Ask yourself- who tends to leave the major cities, buy homes, cars etc.?
Then ask which group of people would be against that? Look in California, NY, etc.
They literally want you living in tiny apartments, only walking or taking public transportation, and never vacationing anywhere.
Posted on 9/15/23 at 8:17 am to Padme
quote:
It’s almost as if the Obamafag regime is at war with the middle class
The sooner we as a country understand this, the better. The American middle class is the only thing standing between the Global Elites and worldwide totalitarian control. They control the medical care, income, housing and, most importantly, the food sources of the poor. In America, they have successfully killed access to the most highly advanced medical care system in the history of the world through Obamacare. Once they take away the right to personal property and housing and force everyone into camps (how many new apartment complexes are being built where you live?), they can control you. Then there is no place to go. But first, they have to get rid of the middle class American who can provide for himself and his family and retain some measure of self-determination if not freedom.
Posted on 9/15/23 at 8:22 am to Timeoday
7.4% is not a 'crash'. Also, location matters. Homes in big metro areas with plenty of high paying jobs are going to be expensive. There is little inventory as most are not going to sell with a 3% rate to jump into a 7% rate.
Posted on 9/15/23 at 8:54 am to Timeoday
Not in my area
Page 3 of 4
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News