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re: ATL Thread | offseason hot takes + discussion

Posted on 1/18/23 at 7:12 am to
Posted by TrussvilleTide
The Endless Void
Member since Sep 2021
4069 posts
Posted on 1/18/23 at 7:12 am to
quote:

With AA locking up our young core for years he has plenty of time to rebuild.


With the given state of the farm at this point who can confidently say hes capable of rebuilding a farm system? I think AA is a GM for a team in a window, I don't think his strength is developing the minor league pipeline (or at least he hasn't really proven that is a skill he has thus far). The vast majority of our core players were ones he inherited from other GMs.

Posted by sorantable
Member since Dec 2008
49000 posts
Posted on 1/18/23 at 7:45 am to
You’re not wrong. Time will tell.
Posted by diremustang
Member since Oct 2017
2287 posts
Posted on 1/18/23 at 10:28 am to
quote:

I think AA is a GM for a team in a window, I don't think his strength is developing the minor league pipeline (or at least he hasn't really proven that is a skill he has thus far). The vast majority of our core players were ones he inherited from other GMs.
He also inherited bonus pool restrictions, forfeited draft picks, international signing restrictions and a bunch of lower level guys being released. He's still hit pretty well on high draft picks in recent years. Our farm system would be ranked a lot higher if we pussyfooted around with Harris, Grissom, Strider and elder. Most teams would still have those guys in AAA and at least three of them would be top 100 prospects.
Posted by RunningJacket
Member since Dec 2008
258 posts
Posted on 1/18/23 at 12:34 pm to
So your knocking AA because he hasn’t had to rebuild a farm system until now? Come on. The Braves have a system that works. They draft pitchers in the American draft and they go after bats in the international market.

The only reason our farm is ranked low right now is because AA promoted everyone and their performance has proven all those call ups were spot on.

The Braves are in a great position to be in the tournament for the next 5-6 years. That’s all you can do. Then hope you get some guys play out of their mind and you win one or two. Meanwhile, teams with huge contracts are stuck playing the old game. Good luck to the Yankees trying to build a team with Judges contract. We’ve seen how far the Angels have made it with 2 superstars.
Posted by TrussvilleTide
The Endless Void
Member since Sep 2021
4069 posts
Posted on 1/18/23 at 1:52 pm to
quote:

Harris, Grissom, Strider and elder


So 4 guys tanked an entire system?
This post was edited on 1/18/23 at 1:53 pm
Posted by TrussvilleTide
The Endless Void
Member since Sep 2021
4069 posts
Posted on 1/18/23 at 1:57 pm to
quote:

The only reason our farm is ranked low right now is because AA promoted everyone and their performance has proven all those call ups were spot on.


The reason its so low right now is because he promoted all the guys they hit on and haven't really hit on anyone else thus far. If he were so good at that aspect we probably don't dip below 20-ish even in a year where you promote 3-4 top guys. I don't think 3-4 hits when you have a farm consisting of dozens of prospects means you're automatically strong in that department.

Posted by VADawg
Wherever
Member since Nov 2011
45268 posts
Posted on 1/18/23 at 1:57 pm to
When you graduate guys as good as Harris, Strider, and Grissom, yeah the farm rankings are going to take a hit.

I think as long as Dana Brown is in the organization, replenishing the farm via the draft shouldn't be an issue.
Posted by Broski
Member since Jun 2011
72395 posts
Posted on 1/18/23 at 1:59 pm to
quote:

Our farm system would be ranked a lot higher if we pussyfooted around with Harris, Grissom, Strider and elder. Most teams would still have those guys in AAA and at least three of them would be top 100 prospects.



I'm not blaming AA for hurting our system by calling those guys up. It was refreshing to see a GM thrust its young talent into the spotlight to see if they sink or swim.

However, fact of the matter is, our farm is barren now, which will make it harder to improve the team if we simply refuse to play the free agent market. That's why I lament letting Freddie walk, because the correlated events that followed made it a lot harder for us to improve in areas of need this offseason (LF and SS).
Posted by TrussvilleTide
The Endless Void
Member since Sep 2021
4069 posts
Posted on 1/18/23 at 2:00 pm to
"taking a hit" vs "the system is now one of the worst in baseball" is the point I think some of you are missing here.

Posted by Jeaux Cool
Frisco via NELA
Member since Sep 2015
1746 posts
Posted on 1/18/23 at 3:30 pm to
quote:

I think as long as Dana Brown is in the organization
Hope and pray he doesn't get the Astros GM job
Posted by volfan30
Member since Jun 2010
40966 posts
Posted on 1/18/23 at 3:35 pm to
They literally were not allowed to sign any amateur international free agents for 4 years. Very difficult to maintain any sort of farm system when you are calling up guys you drafted at a very aggressive pace and have zero international guys in the system aged 17-21. They also have not picked outside of the 20s or 30s since 2018.

We literally just had the top two finishers in the rookie of the year race on a 101 win team.

The way you can judge him is based on his drafting and one of the drafts was a 5 rounder and another was shortened. Not the best way to build depth.

Even with all the restrictions, these are the notable draft picks over last 5 years

2017

Tristan Beck-Traded for Mark Melancon, who was a very productive part of winning teams

2018

Shea Langeliers-Centerpiece in trade for top 5 1B

Braden Shewmake-Looks like a future major leaguer, although a backend of the roster/depth piece

Michael Harris-2022 Rookie of the Year

Vaughn Grissom-Likely OD SS

Joey Estes-3rd piece in Olson trade

Bryce Ball-traded straight up for Joc Pederson, who was key piece on WS team

2019

Jared Shuster-Braves #1 prospect

2020

Spencer Strider-Historic rookie season, ROY runner up

Bryce Elder-3.14 ERA in 54 big league innings, possible #5 starter

Jesse Franklin-.829 OPS in minors as an up the middle guy. Big year coming up though as he missed basically all of 2022 with injury

2021

Ryan Cusick-Another piece in Olson trade

Spencer Schwellenbach-Hasn’t appeared in a game yet in Braves system. Drafted him knowing he needed TJS. Very high upside but a lot of risk.

Dylan Dodd-Already in AAA. Likely not a big league starter but could be a LOOGY by end of summer.

2022
Owen Murphy-#2 prospect in system

JR Ritchie-#3 prospect in system

Owen Murphy-#5 prospect in system

How many teams do you think have produced more guys who have made an impact either at major league level or through trade than this over the past 5 drafts?

This post was edited on 1/18/23 at 3:39 pm
Posted by VADawg
Wherever
Member since Nov 2011
45268 posts
Posted on 1/18/23 at 3:42 pm to
quote:

Dylan Dodd-Already in AAA. Likely not a big league starter but could be a LOOGY by end of summer.


Several people who know prospects way, way, way more than I do think Dodd is a breakout candidate to rocket up the rankings this year.
Posted by volfan30
Member since Jun 2010
40966 posts
Posted on 1/18/23 at 3:43 pm to
He was the best pitcher in the system last year.
Posted by Broski
Member since Jun 2011
72395 posts
Posted on 1/18/23 at 3:45 pm to
I'm not worried about the farm resetting/replenishing.

That's all cyclical. We are due for a down period after how stacked we've been for the last 6 years.
Posted by TrussvilleTide
The Endless Void
Member since Sep 2021
4069 posts
Posted on 1/18/23 at 3:54 pm to
quote:

How many teams do you think have produced more guys who have made an impact either at major league level or through trade than this over the past 5 drafts?


So now, after a wall of text, you change the argument

The farm isn't in a good place, AA is responsible for the farm.

He didn't really do a whole lot of favors in Toronto on that front either.

Where are these guys nationally? Being the number 2 or 5 prospect in a bad system doesn't really mean a whole lot

The only guys left from the old GMs are minor league lifers or Triple A depth guys, if we have any left at all.

And I literally said in my first comment on the issue that this is what I THINK, but its still very much up in the air. He guided Toronto through a window and got here when ours was starting to open up. He just hasn't done it. Most people just aren't good at every single aspect of their job
Posted by Broski
Member since Jun 2011
72395 posts
Posted on 1/18/23 at 4:00 pm to
quote:

He was the best pitcher in the system last year.



He needs to add velocity to his fastball which would make his changeup more disgusting than it already is.

Unlike Anderson, Dodd at least has a competent MiLB-level slider. If he can improve that, he could possibly be a backend rotation LHP in 2024 or 25.
This post was edited on 1/18/23 at 4:03 pm
Posted by volfan30
Member since Jun 2010
40966 posts
Posted on 1/18/23 at 4:33 pm to
Literally the only thing he can do to improve the system is draft and he has drafted more WAR than any other organization in the 18-22 drafts and used several other guys as assets to win a WS and the division every year he has been here.

If he is drafting at an extremely high level and has not been permitted to add talent in any other manner how is he responsible for the farm being bad?
Posted by volfan30
Member since Jun 2010
40966 posts
Posted on 1/18/23 at 4:37 pm to
quote:

Where are these guys nationally? Being the number 2 or 5 prospect in a bad system doesn't really mean a whole lot


Strider and Harris were not too 100 prospects either.

I really don’t understand what point you’re trying to make. What exactly has he done in terms of building the farm that you think is substandard? The draft is the only thing he can be judged on and the results are very good.

He has added tons and tons of talent in the draft. If they were able to supplement all their draft picks with 4 years of IFA talent do you really think they would have a bottom 5 farm right now? Is he responsible for that ban too?
Posted by Broski
Member since Jun 2011
72395 posts
Posted on 1/18/23 at 5:02 pm to
quote:

Strider and Harris were not too 100 prospects either.



Harris was
Posted by auyushu
Surprise, AZ
Member since Jan 2011
8608 posts
Posted on 1/18/23 at 6:53 pm to
AA has done a good job of grabbing talent from the 3rd round on, but our early picks have been mostly crap under him. Shewmake in particular was a terrible first round pick in 2019, with Beau Philip being a completely WTF pick. Drafting a 4th starter upside guy like Shuster with a 1st pick is a bad use of resources to me.

I've always been annoyed we went with Langeliers instead of Corbin Carroll as well since I really wanted us to grab him and knew he would be a stud, even though Langeliers wound up being a solid pick.

The last draft is the first time I felt like we had good upside picks in the first and second rounds under AA. Hopefully that continues going forward.
This post was edited on 1/18/23 at 6:57 pm
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