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re: Is everyone about to lose their shirt in this economic fallout?
Posted on 9/23/22 at 5:16 pm to jimjackandjose
Posted on 9/23/22 at 5:16 pm to jimjackandjose
quote:
For months people have been saying get out of some of these stocks with ridiculous PE and market cap or speculative stocks with no product. Yet here we are and peoppe are shocked
And still plenty of those companies that have fallen 40% still have massively inflated PEs and everyone calls it cheap.
Like most I would imagine, I'm mostly tied to indexes which are driven by these companies. So I'm invested like most of the rest, but definitely value picking more these days.
I'm not too worried about the short term noise. But do think some of the high flying tech will never return to some of their lofty valuations. There will be a new sector everyone is enamored with.
Posted on 9/23/22 at 5:59 pm to Bard
quote:
Did you buy the house to flip or to live in for at least 10 years? If the latter and your job is fairly recession-proof
Bought to live in maybe the next 5 years. Hopefully I can make 10 but who knows. Suppose I could always rent it if needed. Just started a new job in construction. Hoping the gig is solid.
Posted on 9/23/22 at 6:16 pm to themasterpater
Bought my first house near the height of the market before the 2008 drop. I know the feeling. Sold it 7 years later for less than we paid for it. Hopefully you'll end up better off.
This post was edited on 9/23/22 at 6:18 pm
Posted on 9/23/22 at 6:44 pm to Joshjrn
quote:
Is there a current national index in any country in which that index is markedly outperforming ours and that country is exhibiting national economic politics that we should emulate?
Can you define what you mean by national index?
If you mean something like inflation and GDP, I can put Saudi Arabia up. Their GDP has averaged 2.4% for the year thus far and their inflation is currently at 3%, up .7% from Q1.
The real problem though is trying to gauge by any index is to gauge by symptoms and not looking at who is doing what to fix things. The question shouldn't be "whose index is better" but rather "who is doing things which will end up bringing them out of this problem sooner". (an answer off the top of my head is: the UK - see the new PM's push to bring back offshore drilling, for example).
Much of our problem is the force-feeding of liquidity due to COVID after far too much QE for far too long and mixing that in with expanded welfare benefits, supply issues and an administration hell-bent on ending all use of fossil fuels (there is no worthwhile economy which does not run on a foundation of fossil fuels providing the majority of their energy) before having the technological ability and infrastructure in place to cost-effectively replace it with anything else with comparable utility.
One of the biggest factors Trump relied on for the economic boom we had under his Presidency was supply-siding oil and gas. Cheap oil and gas meant cheaper energy and fuel, which meant cheaper costs to produce and transport, which meant cheaper prices for consumers. His tax package cut taxes across the lower tiers, meaning more people kept more of their money to buy these inexpensive products.
Biden, on the other hand, has done the polar opposite and he knows it. It's why he's been drawing down 1Mbls/day and gone begging to the Venezuelans and Saudis instead of incentivizing more domestic production and exploration. This is also why we're going to see oil prices going back up after the drawdown stops in November.
Posted on 9/23/22 at 6:47 pm to themasterpater
quote:
Bought to live in maybe the next 5 years. Hopefully I can make 10 but who knows. Suppose I could always rent it if needed. Just started a new job in construction. Hoping the gig is solid.
Good luck to you. Whether or not you'll have your value back in 5 years is a guessing game but the further out you go the more likely it becomes (generally). As long as you can afford it, stay put (unless you get made an offer you simply can't refuse).
Posted on 9/23/22 at 7:02 pm to Niner
I bought a bunch of Shopify at $150 and was on top of the world last fall when it was at $1600…. A 10way split later I’m at $28 ($280) and completely deflated by my greed and oblivion.
Even with no hope in sight on this one, I’ll hold as a reminder that pigs get fat & hogs get slaughtered….
Although I doubt I’ve really learned any lessons…
Even with no hope in sight on this one, I’ll hold as a reminder that pigs get fat & hogs get slaughtered….
Although I doubt I’ve really learned any lessons…
Posted on 9/23/22 at 7:14 pm to themasterpater
I’m retired and my 401K is down over $300K. Not much fun right now but my calculators say I’m still good.
Of course YouTube is loaded with videos of the coming apocalypse and how it’s going to get much worse. Nobody really knows, but it’s doom and gloom everywhere.
Of course YouTube is loaded with videos of the coming apocalypse and how it’s going to get much worse. Nobody really knows, but it’s doom and gloom everywhere.
Posted on 9/23/22 at 8:20 pm to Auburn80
quote:
doom and gloom
There was plenty of this when the marker was up too
Posted on 9/23/22 at 8:31 pm to Auburn80
quote:
I’m retired and my 401K is down over $300K. Not much fun right now but my calculators say I’m still good.
Couldnt imagine being retired right now with some money in saving and a Social security check to try and get by on. I make pretty good money and working full time and feeling the pain can't imagine the number of retired people struggling with no relief in sight with cluless Joe running the country.
Posted on 9/23/22 at 8:57 pm to FLObserver
The market drops 20% and people are thinking it’s the end of the world. Chill guys. Just chill.
Posted on 9/23/22 at 9:28 pm to Bard
quote:
Can you define what you mean by national index?
People cite to the performance of the S&P or the DJI as a stand in for the US domestic stock market. I mean equivalent indexes in other countries that are cited as stand ins for their domestic stock markets. Sometimes it’s literally a national index. Sometimes it isn’t. That’s why I was being generic.
Eta: I keep seeing people saying that the next election might “save” the US domestic market. I find that position interesting since it seems like everyone is in the shitter across the entire fricking planet. So I’m trying to understand the logic of whatever magic wand people think the president has, short of crazy QE, which those same people claim they don’t want to continue seeing.
This post was edited on 9/23/22 at 9:31 pm
Posted on 9/23/22 at 10:03 pm to Joshjrn
quote:
I keep seeing people saying that the next election might “save” the US domestic market. I find that position interesting since it seems like everyone is in the shitter across the entire fricking planet. So I’m trying to understand the logic of whatever magic wand people think the president has,
I seem to recall Obama talking about Majic wands and Trump made a fool of him.
The very first Majic Trick should be to unleash the oil industry. Presto change oh fuel comes down, energy comes down, cost of everything you buy comes down and inflation comes down.
P.S. it’s not really Majic now is it?
Posted on 9/23/22 at 11:35 pm to Guntoter1
I'm absolutely no Biden fan and I think we've ended up with $80 oil in spite of him but isn't $65-80 sort of equilibrium for the oil market?
Not saying we stay here either. But at a certain price point companies don't want to drill and at another one it starts to hurt the economy.
Not saying we stay here either. But at a certain price point companies don't want to drill and at another one it starts to hurt the economy.
Posted on 9/24/22 at 12:01 am to Joshjrn
quote:
So I’m trying to understand the logic of whatever magic wand people think the president has,
Biden waves a magic wand, cancels Keystone XL
Biden waves magic wand and freezes oil and gas leases
Biden waves magic wand again and freezes oil and gas leases... again
The blocks and bans represent billions in lost expenditures by the oil companies involved. Buying/leasing equipment, getting it into position, hiring workers, etc. Doing any one of those can have a chilling effect on oil companies planning to ramp production back up. Who wants to spend money getting things back online when the administration has declared itself your enemy? At any moment some other ban, block, new EPA regulation, etc. may drop to put the screws to you again.
And then...
Biden waves magic wand, oil execs appear at dog and pony show
Oil execs paraded in front of Congress and the American people in an attempt by the administration to blame the oil companies for the problem the administration caused.
Posted on 9/24/22 at 6:10 am to Dandaman
quote:
The market drops 20% and people are thinking it’s the end of the world. Chill guys. Just chill.
Wasnt talking about the market sport talking about the prices going up on everything and trying to live with them on a fixed budget.
Posted on 9/24/22 at 6:55 am to FLObserver
Amazon
Google
Microsoft
Palantir
AI
Snow
Wrecked Tech and Shopify below them all.
Microsoft
Palantir
AI
Snow
Wrecked Tech and Shopify below them all.
Posted on 9/24/22 at 8:26 am to Bard
quote:
Bard
So now that you understand what I meant by international domestic indexes, do you have an answer to my original question?
Posted on 9/24/22 at 9:06 am to Joshjrn
quote:
So now that you understand what I meant by international domestic indexes, do you have an answer to my original question?
No point in discussing anything, people consumed by politics can only talk about politics. It is like a disease these days.
Posted on 9/24/22 at 9:52 am to Joshjrn
quote:
So now that you understand what I meant by international domestic indexes, do you have an answer to my original question?
No, because it's not a good question. The world economy is heavily influenced by the USD, it's why we have the saying of "when the US economy sneezes, the world catches a cold".
Posted on 9/24/22 at 10:01 am to PUB
quote:
This is the cheapest of the mega cap tech companies right now. Trading at roughly a 16 forward PE. I will be loading some during this downturn
This post was edited on 9/24/22 at 1:44 pm
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