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Message
re: Is everyone about to lose their shirt in this economic fallout?
Posted on 9/24/22 at 10:10 am to UltimaParadox
Posted on 9/24/22 at 10:10 am to UltimaParadox
1. Being proactive and not reactive was the only way to take advantage of this. The writing was on the wall Christmas 2020. It was going to be a long and drawn-out ordeal.
2. Don't attempt to time markets, that usually never works out well. Pick an entry or exit position based on research and stick with it.
3. DCA is your friend. Instead of panicking and pulling money out, increase or maximize your inputs if you can and take advantage of a depressed market. Now would be a good time to do backdoor roth's and slide over investments.
4. Only invest in companies you actually use, you know they have a customer base.
5. Simply looking at where the market was propped up artificially prior to the start of Covid and then all the free monies distributed says the market is probably still 20% above fair market TODAY. This DOESN"T take into account the "Inflation Reduction Act & College Tuition Payoff" fiasco that has yet to deployed.
6. If you take into account the amount of money you lost in dollar value in your 401K, investments....then figure out how much it really has lost in buying power with a realistic 10+% inflation for the past 2 years. It has been disastrous, and it should make you pissed.
7. Elections have consequences, vote smarter.
2. Don't attempt to time markets, that usually never works out well. Pick an entry or exit position based on research and stick with it.
3. DCA is your friend. Instead of panicking and pulling money out, increase or maximize your inputs if you can and take advantage of a depressed market. Now would be a good time to do backdoor roth's and slide over investments.
4. Only invest in companies you actually use, you know they have a customer base.
5. Simply looking at where the market was propped up artificially prior to the start of Covid and then all the free monies distributed says the market is probably still 20% above fair market TODAY. This DOESN"T take into account the "Inflation Reduction Act & College Tuition Payoff" fiasco that has yet to deployed.
6. If you take into account the amount of money you lost in dollar value in your 401K, investments....then figure out how much it really has lost in buying power with a realistic 10+% inflation for the past 2 years. It has been disastrous, and it should make you pissed.
7. Elections have consequences, vote smarter.
1
Posted on 9/24/22 at 10:20 am to oneg8rh8r
quote:
The writing was on the wall Christmas 2020. It was going to be a long and drawn-out ordeal.
quote:
Don't attempt to time markets, that usually never works out well
Contradict yourself in the first two points
Posted on 9/24/22 at 11:11 am to themasterpater
Yes
It is very bad and will only get worse
It is very bad and will only get worse
Posted on 9/24/22 at 1:34 pm to I Bleed Garnet
Only losses if you sell. I’ll keep with my DCA via 401K, HSA, and taxable account. Long-term, these should become some my most valuable shares.
I do want to look into tax loss harvesting but I think this is really difficult to justify when it’s broad market ETFs.
I do want to look into tax loss harvesting but I think this is really difficult to justify when it’s broad market ETFs.
Posted on 9/24/22 at 2:02 pm to Bard
quote:
No, because it's not a good question. The world economy is heavily influenced by the USD, it's why we have the saying of "when the US economy sneezes, the world catches a cold".
It's one thing to say that the world economy is "heavily influenced by the USD". It's quite another to posit that every other country on earth is going to have their domestic stock markets essentially mirror ours, not simply as a matter of correlation to common factors, but as a matter of causation in which the actions of our domestic politicians are the primary deterministic factor of their market movements.
That would be quite the assertion.
Posted on 9/24/22 at 3:03 pm to Joshjrn
quote:
It's one thing to say that the world economy is "heavily influenced by the USD". It's quite another to posit that every other country on earth is going to have their domestic stock markets essentially mirror ours, not simply as a matter of correlation to common factors, but as a matter of causation in which the actions of our domestic politicians are the primary deterministic factor of their market movements.
That would be quite the assertion.
Yet here we are, your own question about indexes underscores this.
This is what it means when your currency is (by a WIDE margin) the premiere reserve currency for the world markets and your economy is the primary driver of the world economy. The only country that comes close to our GDP is China and that's only because we've outsourced so much of our manufacturing to them.
This post was edited on 9/24/22 at 3:07 pm
Posted on 9/24/22 at 3:54 pm to Bard
quote:
Yet here we are, your own question about indexes underscores this. This is what it means when your currency is (by a WIDE margin) the premiere reserve currency for the world markets and your economy is the primary driver of the world economy. The only country that comes close to our GDP is China and that's only because we've outsourced so much of our manufacturing to them.
So in your opinion, when those international domestic indexes that are currently tracking very similarly to ours now have broken from it substantially in the past, or do so in the future, what do you think the reason was?
Considering that the standard guidance is that exposure to international markets grants diversification benefits, your position that foreign markets simply track ours would fly in the face of that.
Posted on 9/24/22 at 4:41 pm to fallguy_1978
Was looking at that too
Posted on 9/24/22 at 5:58 pm to Triple Bogey
quote:Japan 1990’s says “hi”.
Market isn't going to stay flat. That's not what markets do.
Posted on 9/24/22 at 6:00 pm to jimjackandjose
quote:
for months ppl have been saying get out of these stocks w ridiculous PE....or speculative with no product
Exactly.
But, they were too smart for you!
Nothing against speculation, but you gotta know WTF you are doing. You gotta put in the research etc. Not just momentum trade etc.
I'm almost all chemicals, O&G , Mining, and utilities.
I don't know enough about tech to buy these tech companies at these crazy PEs.
In just the last year there was a point where Rivian was valued at more than GM and Ford combined.
Posted on 9/24/22 at 6:09 pm to fallguy_1978
quote:
isn't $65-$80 sort of equilibrium in the oil market
I'd say most folks in energy, or energy intensive industry (chemical) would agree with that.
It allows companies to make good $$.
Encourages investment.
Doesn't encourage stupid, short sighted investment.
Yet, doesn't hamper economy/prices of goods.
It's regarded as a happy medium, everybody wins.
Posted on 9/24/22 at 7:09 pm to Joshjrn
quote:
So in your opinion, when those international domestic indexes that are currently tracking very similarly to ours now have broken from it substantially in the past, or do so in the future, what do you think the reason was?
It's a dependency by degrees of intensity. If we run inflation of 3-4% for a month or two then it drops back to 2%, it's not going to have an impact on other countries. However, if we were to run a $1M stimmy to every US citizen next week, the world economy would crash not long after our own did (this doesn't even get into the impact from so many countries owning so much US debt).
Again, this is what happens when your currency is the prime reserve currency for international trade and your country is the main economic engine for the world economy.
quote:
Considering that the standard guidance is that exposure to international markets grants diversification benefits, your position that foreign markets simply track ours would fly in the face of that.
Just like with anything else, it depends on what you're buying, when you're buying it and what's going on at the time.
BSC may have seemed like a great diversification idea for someone in August 2007, if they weren't paying attention to what was going on. Smart diversification is the idea, not just throwing your money at random things.
Posted on 9/25/22 at 6:16 am to Dawgfanman
quote:
Except everything is twice as expensive as it was 30 months ago and I’m only making 15% more.
Lucky! I’m making 5% more.
Posted on 9/25/22 at 7:02 am to Auburn80
Subtle brag of “ I’m a millionaire”
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