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Started By
Message
Inflation hits 9.1%. Update: Wholesale 11.3%
Posted on 7/13/22 at 7:38 am
Posted on 7/13/22 at 7:38 am
So what happens now? Fed hikes rates .75 the same week Q2 GDP comes in that we’re in a recession?
This post was edited on 7/14/22 at 8:25 am
12
Posted on 7/13/22 at 7:39 am to Lsut81
75 basis points is all but guaranteed now with a possibility of 100 basis points.
ETA: I do think this is the peak. CPI is a lagging indicator and we have already seen commodities fall off a cliff. I think we see it dip next month and then start falling the months after.
Dollar is going to continue to go parabolic for now.
ETA: I do think this is the peak. CPI is a lagging indicator and we have already seen commodities fall off a cliff. I think we see it dip next month and then start falling the months after.
Dollar is going to continue to go parabolic for now.
This post was edited on 7/13/22 at 7:43 am
Posted on 7/13/22 at 7:42 am to I Love Bama
quote:
75 basis points is all but guaranteed now with a possibility of 100 basis points.
Already priced into market or do we see a huge reaction…. Guess those looking to buy homes are F’d
Posted on 7/13/22 at 7:46 am to I Love Bama
quote:we flipped the EUR
Dollar is going to continue to go parabolic for now.
Posted on 7/13/22 at 7:46 am to I Love Bama
I think next Months Numbers will be more important since the fed was so slow to really start raising rates. What i mean by that is 25 basis points increase did nothing but the 75 basis points hoping will start to kick in. S&P will be super choppy until then down until next months report.
This post was edited on 7/13/22 at 7:58 am
Posted on 7/13/22 at 7:51 am to I Love Bama
CNBC just said 80% chance of 75 basis point increase in September
Posted on 7/13/22 at 7:53 am to Free888
Futures down 400….
Posted on 7/13/22 at 7:56 am to Lsut81
quote:
Guess those looking to buy homes are F’d
No they are not. It’s just that they no longer have access to free money. Which is not normal.
Posted on 7/13/22 at 7:56 am to Lsut81
Doom
Dollar exploding in value going to kill earnings and market will tank
Fed has to consider a 100bp hike now, 75bp is guaranteed
Inflation is still running rampant with no signs of a peak - Fed measures haven’t proven to knock it down yet
Dollar exploding in value going to kill earnings and market will tank
Fed has to consider a 100bp hike now, 75bp is guaranteed
Inflation is still running rampant with no signs of a peak - Fed measures haven’t proven to knock it down yet
Posted on 7/13/22 at 7:58 am to Lsut81
Wow. That's a big fricking number.
Posted on 7/13/22 at 8:02 am to Upperdecker
The dollar is spiking! Inflation is out of control! 
Posted on 7/13/22 at 8:04 am to Lsut81
Posted on 7/13/22 at 8:08 am to BottomlandBrew
Saying 100% chance of .75 hike and now almost 50% chance of full point hike
Posted on 7/13/22 at 8:10 am to wutangfinancial
quote:
The dollar is spiking! Inflation is out of control!
Both are absolutely possible and happening. Your little brain can’t fathom that those aren’t opposites like you were taught
Posted on 7/13/22 at 8:13 am to Lsut81
Excuse my ignorance but can someone explain to me why the Fed won’t just immediately hike rates 300bp?
Why all of these gradual half measures?
Why all of these gradual half measures?
Posted on 7/13/22 at 8:13 am to Upperdecker
quote:
nflation is still running rampant with no signs of a peak - Fed measures haven’t proven to knock it down yet
That’s not true at all…
Commodity prices are down 16% in the last month.
Posted on 7/13/22 at 8:14 am to PhiTiger1764
An immediate 300 would tank the economy and the markets. You gotta give the economy time to adjust with gradual changes, but also need to balance with killing inflation
Posted on 7/13/22 at 8:14 am to Upperdecker
I’m sure it’s probable but that’s not happening. It’s an imbalance of supply and demand in energy and fuel and it has been for almost 1.5 years. Good old fashioned price increases. Has nothing to do with the money supply so it can’t be inflation. Too bad the mob is driving political actors into making it worse.
Posted on 7/13/22 at 8:15 am to Upperdecker
quote:
Doom
Dollar exploding in value going to kill earnings and market will tank
Fed has to consider a 100bp hike now, 75bp is guaranteed
Inflation is still running rampant with no signs of a peak - Fed measures haven’t proven to knock it down yet
Take a breath, brother. Another rate hike and you’re going to see things stabilize. Corrections are painful, but we need one. This isn’t the end of the world.
Mortgage rates are not what they were in the 70s / 80s, so comparisons to 40 years ago need to go back and look at everything that was happening back then. We aren’t there, and even if we were, it still wouldn’t be the end of the world. We need the pain to correct the failures of the spend whores in Washington.
Posted on 7/13/22 at 8:15 am to PhiTiger1764
quote:
Excuse my ignorance but can someone explain to me why the Fed won’t just immediately hike rates 300bp?
They dont want to crash the market and create a quick recession.
It's a delicate balance of finding the rate hikes that will slow down inflation but also not cause the economy to tank. The problem is they waited far too long to start the rate hikes. They didnt start raising the rate until March of this year despite inflation already running over 5% by summer 2021. Their target inflation is always around the 2-2.5% range. They claimed they were afraid to raise rates last year in fear of hurting a recovering economy calling the inflation "Transitory". Turns out it wasn't.
This post was edited on 7/13/22 at 8:19 am
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