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Started By
Message
India is ‘caught in a trap’ given its deep ties with Russia, political analyst says
Posted on 3/9/22 at 10:33 pm
Posted on 3/9/22 at 10:33 pm
quote:
India is in a difficult situation because it relies heavily on Russian weapons to defend itself, but likely knows that close relations with Moscow are not ideal if Russia becomes a “pariah state,” a political analyst told CNBC.
The international community slapped Russia with heavy sanctions after Moscow’s forces invaded Ukraine two weeks ago.
“India’s caught in a trap,” said James Crabtree, executive director at the International Institute for Strategic Studies Asia.
He said Russian weapons help India manage its biggest worry — neighboring China. Crabtree said tensions could flare “at any moment” between the two nations. China and India have clashed at the border in recent years.
In the medium term, however, “India probably recognizes that if Russia is to be a pariah state, then having close ties with it is not going to be in India’s interest,” Crabtree told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Wednesday.
“But it still needs those [Russian] weapon systems,” he added.
Around 85% of India’s military equipment comes from Russia or originated from the Soviet Union, according to research by the Stimson Center, a Washington-based think tank.
And New Delhi has always had a very deep relationship with Moscow, Crabtree said.
India abstained from recent votes held at the UN Security Council and UN General Assembly related to Russia’s war in Ukraine.
India is “most worried” about China, which is why it needs Russian weapons, Crabtree said. But that’s also why it has “spent a lot of time courting Washington and the major European countries” which share common aims in balancing China in Asia, he said.
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Posted on 3/9/22 at 10:35 pm to hikingfan
Why the US doesn't invest more money in India defense to wage proxy war with China, I have no idea.
Posted on 3/9/22 at 10:38 pm to hikingfan
India has been in Russia’s orbit for a long time. The fact that we decided to get in bed with the Pakistanis only deepened the divide. Trump tried to make some inroads but it seems we’re reverting back to our strategy of alienating a potential huge partner who could really benefit us in terms of countering critical issues like terrorism and China.
China, India, Russia, Brazil are shaping up as a nice counterweight to American influence. And we’re largely responsible for creating potential counterweight.
China, India, Russia, Brazil are shaping up as a nice counterweight to American influence. And we’re largely responsible for creating potential counterweight.
Posted on 3/9/22 at 10:47 pm to hikingfan
I think the Indian would choose Russia over the United States.
Posted on 3/9/22 at 10:53 pm to LuckyTiger
It SHOULD have been US/India/Russia/SE Asia against China, but we pushed Russia into China’s arms a long time ago, and like you said we’ve done dick about bringing India closer. I mean WHY Pakistan? They HATE US.
The geopolitical landscape is slowly beginning to shift, and that probably won’t mean anything good for us, or any other innocent peace loving civilian in the world.
The geopolitical landscape is slowly beginning to shift, and that probably won’t mean anything good for us, or any other innocent peace loving civilian in the world.
Posted on 3/9/22 at 11:06 pm to hikingfan
Trap? India is in the catbirds seat, if Russia is pushed back into a corner the Indians will demand and receive massive discounts on both oil and arms, they truly DNGAF what either the US or Europe think about it nor should they.
Posted on 3/9/22 at 11:11 pm to hikingfan
Trap? India has all but thrown in with the Russians. Ditto for China.
We're watching the decline of the USA on the world stage in real time. The seeds are being sown now.
It's quite fascinating, really. We have stupid leaders, are arrogant and careless as a culture, and other countries have grown to dislike us and our schizophrenic foreign policy (Iran enemies, now send them pallets of cash, now enemies, wait no now buy oil from them) isn't doing us any favor either.
That said, I have always believed most of our 'allies' would abandon us if push came to shove, and cite our imperialism and other stupid reasons as the excuse of why they won't help us even though we helped them so often.
We're watching the decline of the USA on the world stage in real time. The seeds are being sown now.
It's quite fascinating, really. We have stupid leaders, are arrogant and careless as a culture, and other countries have grown to dislike us and our schizophrenic foreign policy (Iran enemies, now send them pallets of cash, now enemies, wait no now buy oil from them) isn't doing us any favor either.
That said, I have always believed most of our 'allies' would abandon us if push came to shove, and cite our imperialism and other stupid reasons as the excuse of why they won't help us even though we helped them so often.
This post was edited on 3/9/22 at 11:13 pm
Posted on 3/9/22 at 11:18 pm to Warfox
Neat factoid. Took a trip there in 2013, and the tourist drivers all knew who Bobby Jindal was. Kinda neat how they root for themselves globally.
Really does seem like opportunity wasted.
Really does seem like opportunity wasted.
This post was edited on 3/9/22 at 11:19 pm
Posted on 3/9/22 at 11:33 pm to hikingfan
quote:
India is ‘caught in a trap’
quote:
We're caught in a trap
I can't walk out
Because I love you too much, baby
Why can't you see
What you're doing to me
When you don't believe a word I say?
We can't go on together
With suspicious minds (suspicious minds)
And we can't build our dreams
On suspicious minds
Posted on 3/9/22 at 11:51 pm to Teddy Ruxpin
India has potential and would benefit America but our government has pushed them from becoming an ally. It didn't help they already disliked the meddling from both America and the UK.
Posted on 3/10/22 at 12:05 am to SocraticTiger
China and India aren't going to war and they aren't going to be allies either. They don't like each other and never will. Neither can conquer the other. China can't get over the Himalayas and they sure as hell aren't going to try a Naval landing against 1 Billion Indians when they only have a few boats that can even make the trip. India isn't stupid enough to try an invasion of China either, their concern is always Pakistan first, second, and third.
China is fricked long term. They are completely dependent on others for energy and food and they need an export based economy to survive. They have the worst demographics on the planet and they will literally lose have their population to aging out by 2050. The list of problems internally with China is ridiculously long, they just do a great job of putting on a front but they are a hell of a lot closer to complete collapse than taking over the world.
India is on India's side. Always has been and always will be. They have stable demographics and can feed themselves. They have a natural buffer with the mountains and the Indian Ocean keeping anyone from messing with them too much. India can also cut China off from their oil supply from the Persian Gulf anytime they want and China can't do a damn thing about it. India doesn't need Russia either. They are basically a self contained unit that can't be taken and can't project power.
Russia is extremely limited on what they can do. They have an economy the size of Florida and only slightly better demographics than China. They have a good sized military but they are maxed out, they have 2 million soldiers in a country of 145 million without many of that population in the right age group. They also have to protect themselves from all sides all the time. They can no longer project power outside of nukes beyond neighboring countries and they have be be extremely careful not to overextend. They make their own O&G and food though and are used to a rough existence though so they will survive but they won't thrive.
The US is going to be fine compared to everyone else. We are in for pain but in the end we have all the advantages that matter. Hell our Navy is 10X more powerful than the rest of the world combined. We certainly can feed ourselves and the only thing that can stop us energy wise is ourselves. Certainly no one can attack us outright. Our fears are all internal and of our own making. This is still where everyone is sending their money and moving if they can and I'm not just talking about the illegals which are obviously a huge problem. The rich and skilled are coming here as well more than anywhere else.
China is fricked long term. They are completely dependent on others for energy and food and they need an export based economy to survive. They have the worst demographics on the planet and they will literally lose have their population to aging out by 2050. The list of problems internally with China is ridiculously long, they just do a great job of putting on a front but they are a hell of a lot closer to complete collapse than taking over the world.
India is on India's side. Always has been and always will be. They have stable demographics and can feed themselves. They have a natural buffer with the mountains and the Indian Ocean keeping anyone from messing with them too much. India can also cut China off from their oil supply from the Persian Gulf anytime they want and China can't do a damn thing about it. India doesn't need Russia either. They are basically a self contained unit that can't be taken and can't project power.
Russia is extremely limited on what they can do. They have an economy the size of Florida and only slightly better demographics than China. They have a good sized military but they are maxed out, they have 2 million soldiers in a country of 145 million without many of that population in the right age group. They also have to protect themselves from all sides all the time. They can no longer project power outside of nukes beyond neighboring countries and they have be be extremely careful not to overextend. They make their own O&G and food though and are used to a rough existence though so they will survive but they won't thrive.
The US is going to be fine compared to everyone else. We are in for pain but in the end we have all the advantages that matter. Hell our Navy is 10X more powerful than the rest of the world combined. We certainly can feed ourselves and the only thing that can stop us energy wise is ourselves. Certainly no one can attack us outright. Our fears are all internal and of our own making. This is still where everyone is sending their money and moving if they can and I'm not just talking about the illegals which are obviously a huge problem. The rich and skilled are coming here as well more than anywhere else.
This post was edited on 3/10/22 at 7:45 am
Posted on 3/10/22 at 12:10 am to hikingfan
This is a sample of arrogant US media.
This article looks like Indian is really caring about the Russian Sanction and want to take US/Europe side.
The fact is just like most of the countries, India does not care the sanctions. It will work directly with China, Russia to do the trades.
There are only 40+ countries are sanctioning Russian. These countries control the English media and the loudest. Majority of the world population and countries do not participate in the sanctions.
This article looks like Indian is really caring about the Russian Sanction and want to take US/Europe side.
The fact is just like most of the countries, India does not care the sanctions. It will work directly with China, Russia to do the trades.
There are only 40+ countries are sanctioning Russian. These countries control the English media and the loudest. Majority of the world population and countries do not participate in the sanctions.
Posted on 3/10/22 at 12:25 am to Warfox
quote:
US/India/Russia/SE Asia against China
SE Asia and India have a very long history. They are not stupid to take sides.
US is the strongest countries but it is far far way.
China is their neighbor. You try to make friends with your neighbors. When things turn bad, US will abandon them and never seen again. But you can not move away from China.
SE Asia and India are using US as leverage to work with China. But fight on the behalf of US. NO WAY.
American has a mentality of "We are the world. The universe is circling around US". That is not true.
Every country is doing good things for itself. Not like stupid Ukraine leaders fighting for US and be enemy of your bigger neighbor.
When US is needed most, US says "NO, NO, NO"
Posted on 3/10/22 at 3:27 am to SocraticTiger
quote:You are addressing a country whose braintrust developed the following "strategy":
Why the US doesn't invest more money in India defense to wage proxy war with China, I have no idea.
1) We hamstrung our own energy sector. We even suggested jailing our oil executives, because ... well ... just because ... Come on man. You know the thing.
2) We shut off construction of an 850K/bbl capable pipeline from our chief oil exporter and ally, Canada.
3) We alienated our chief petroleum allies, Saudi and the UAE, in the middle east. Designated one of them a "pariah" state, and emboldened their regional enemies.
4) We instigated an unnecessary and avoidable crisis with Russia, our 3rd leading oil import source, and then turned off the oil spigot from them.
5) Suddenly realizing #1-4 left the US in a horrible economic situation, a situation entirely of its own making, the braintrust then, on knees with cup in hand, approached two US enemies, Venezuela and Iran, begging for some oil. Those countries btw actually are led by pariahs.
6) Faced with the prospect of >$7/gal gas this summer, the administration now suggests the "fix" is for Americans to "go buy electric cars" because ... well ... because EVs get their energy from a wire, not a well... Come on man. You know the thing.
7)Alas, d/t the administration's unmanaged supply chain shortage, the wait time on new EVs in the US is about a year.
---
To re-emphasize, all of the above was not only avoidable, we actually had to go out of our way to create the problem. Now you ask why the US doesn't invest more money into Indian defense?
Posted on 3/10/22 at 4:51 am to SocraticTiger
quote:
Why the US doesn't invest more money in India defense to wage proxy war with China, I have no idea.
Wait, you want more proxy wars?
Is this sarcasm I'm missing?
Posted on 3/10/22 at 4:58 am to NC_Tigah
quote:its been a remarkable year for POTaTUS, no?
To re-emphasize, all of the above was not only avoidable, we actually had to go out of our way to create the problem.
Posted on 3/10/22 at 5:03 am to NC_Tigah
UK did not meddle in India affairs, they sat in a tea shop in London and invented India and Pakistan. You Hindu, you are now in this part of the territory called India. You Muslim, you are now in this territory called \Pakistan. |Millions of people uprooted and transferred to a place they did not want to be nor were they wanted.
Regarding weapons. Ask yourself, you are India, and chini hates you, they are spending 10s of billions on your enemy Pakistan. chini has knocked off every weapon the US has. Want a counter balance, Russia has invented all their weapons to counter US weapons (ie A400 missile system, the f35 killer). Where would you buy your weapons?
India has millions of people living in the US and are much more Americanized than chinese. If a war broke out, chini americans would go home, Indian Americans would bring their relatives to the US.
Modi loved him some Trump. Arsehole biden starts this whole mess and when questioned by an |Indian reporter if he had spoken to Modi before he started this mess he said "We will be talking to them". He had not spoken to them beforehand and he could not even remember |Modis name. And you wonder why they abstained from a vote.
Regarding weapons. Ask yourself, you are India, and chini hates you, they are spending 10s of billions on your enemy Pakistan. chini has knocked off every weapon the US has. Want a counter balance, Russia has invented all their weapons to counter US weapons (ie A400 missile system, the f35 killer). Where would you buy your weapons?
India has millions of people living in the US and are much more Americanized than chinese. If a war broke out, chini americans would go home, Indian Americans would bring their relatives to the US.
Modi loved him some Trump. Arsehole biden starts this whole mess and when questioned by an |Indian reporter if he had spoken to Modi before he started this mess he said "We will be talking to them". He had not spoken to them beforehand and he could not even remember |Modis name. And you wonder why they abstained from a vote.
Posted on 3/10/22 at 5:05 am to hikingfan
It would be great, just once, to get an non propaganda news story about geo politics
Posted on 3/10/22 at 7:53 am to GeauxWrek
quote:
It would be great, just once, to get an non propaganda news story about geo politics
Zeihan is a Geopolitics expert who does a great job of just laying out facts that matter and he predicted this and a lot more. Here was an interview from a few days ago with him, things are going to get really ugly and soon but probably not in the ways many here think. Lots of distractions from the bigger picture.
Energy, Food, and War in Ukraine interview with Peter Zeihan
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