re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Glad to see that you are finally acknowledging the truth.

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Glad to see that you are finally paying attention, as I have been saying this for the last six months or so.

Early on, it was fair to argue that Biden had to be careful not to get too far ahead of our European allies. Biden was just being cautious, the theory went, because he was cognizant of the need for NATO unity in countering Putin's aggression.

Now, though, we have little Macron speaking like the leader of the free world and Biden afraid of his shadow and worried that Ukraine's hitting Russian refineries could impact the price of gas at the pump and hurt his reelection campaign. It's incredibly weak and pathetic.


But the paranoid conspiracy theorists among us thinks that the Biden administration is incredibly weak and pathetic ... but are also incredibly powerful and executing complex and dangerous operations for mysterious goals. It's schizophrenic.

ISW Update

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Key Takeaways:

Russian forces have recently intensified their effort to seize the operationally significant town of Chasiv Yar, seeking to exploit how Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast and ongoing offensive operations throughout eastern Ukraine have generated greater theater-wide pressure on Ukrainian forces.

Russian forces are likely preparing for the second phase of their offensive operation in northern Kharkiv Oblast, which Russian forces likely intend to launch following their anticipated seizure of Vovchansk.

Zelensky also outlined materiel requirements for Ukraine to combat Russia's air superiority and defend against the Russian air threat, especially given US-imposed restraints on Ukraine that prohibit Ukraine from striking targets within Russian territory and airspace.

Ukrainian officials have reportedly asked the US presidential administration to ease the restriction against using US-provided weapons to strike military targets in Russia.

Zelensky noted that Ukraine must overcome its manpower challenges in order to contest the theater-wide initiative in Ukraine.

Ukraine's new mobilization law went into effect on May 18 and will help Ukraine stabilize its force generation apparatus amid ongoing manpower constraints.

Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev called for Russia's envisioned "buffer zone" to encompass all of Ukraine, illustrating that the Kremlin’s concept of the buffer zone is a thinly veiled justification for Russia's long-held intent to subsume the entirety of Ukraine and likely an effort to garner domestic support for the Russian war effort.

Founder of the Kremlin-linked Rybar Telegram channel, Mikhail Zvinchuk, gave an uncharacteristically public interview in which he criticized the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and speculated on possible changes in the MoD.

Should the Kremlin allow select prominent Russian milbloggers to increase their criticisms of the Russian MoD, public pressure may grow in favor of reforms that would, if implemented, assist Russia's war effort in Ukraine.

Georgian President Salome Zurabishvili vetoed the Russian-style "foreign agents" bill on May 18, but the ruling Georgian Dream party will likely override Zurabishvili's veto in the coming weeks.

Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Avdiivka, Hulyaipole, and Robotyne.

The BBC News Russian Service reported on May 18 that Russian military authorities in Astana, Kazakhstan, detained a Russian contract service personnel (kontraktnik) for desertion on April 23 – the first such instance in Kazakhstan.

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You also said that you would consider voting for him. How can one acknowledge the weakness and total failure of that demented fool and still think about voting for him?

It's schizophrenic.

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You seem to be unfamiliar with the very basic concept of a voter who thinks that both candidates are terrible. I don't wish to insult you, but this doesn't speak well of you at all.

This is the key bit from the 2nd paper:

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However, the liquidity portion of the NWF - actual cash and gold in the accounts
of the Ministry of Finance in the Central Bank - has been disappearing at a faster pace: from RUR 8,8
trillion ($113 billion) at the beginning of 2022 to just RUR 5 trillion ($53,5 billion) by April 1st 202410.

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Russia can continue this war for another year or so, but then the money literally runs out and there's a financial collapse.

Defense of Ukraine
@DefenceU

Another bad day for the russian Black Sea Fleet.

Overnight, Ukrainian defenders destroyed a russian minesweeper Project 266M "Kovrovets".
Great job, warriors!

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If this is true, why haven't those here on the PT who hate the globalists, think Zelenksy is a dictator and wish for a Russian victory joined the glorious Russian forces in their fight against all this evil? I believe it reasonable to ask as they continually bitch about the Ukraine supporters not going over to fight along side Ukraine.

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You do realize we can hope Ukraine wins but not feel obligated to help….. right?

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current Russian economy and why Putin is going to have an impossible job making all of this work.

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The paper has some strange natural gas prices.

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According to above-mentioned data on
Russian revenues from pipeline gas exports to China, the average price of gas supplies to China via
the “Power of Siberia” pipeline in 2023 was $284 per thousand cubic meters (tcm), against $493/tcm
average price of LNG imports in Eastern Asia (JKM, Japan Korea Marker), or average 2023 price of
$545/tcm at TTF gas hub in the Netherlands

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1. TTF was never this high after Feb 2023 and even lower the majority of the year.
2. JKM is about right, Shuttle LNG tankers carry it to China, Japan and Korea from Sakhalin Island. An active seismic area negated initial development of a pipeline to China from Sakhalin. Sakhalin 1 was initially Exxon with most of the equipment for drilling and onshore processing modules built in Louisiana. The onshore processing was replaced by a much larger plant less than a decade later (with a partner we placed some penny on the dollar cheap bids for some of the smaller modules in 2008)
3. Power of Siberia pipeline doesn't replace exports to Europe, but from new developments further east with exports eastward. Russia was exporting to China before 2022. The 30% larger Power of Siberia 2 has been proposed but neither Russia nor China has put a dime into the $15 billion project to start construction over the last decade when it was postponed.
4. All other Russian gas production is logistically pointed to Europe it has no real other markets of any size.

Additionally, Russia has to compete with New Guinea, Australia and the US for shipments of LNG to the Far East. The cost of LNG at the dock in the US has dropped considerably to half of cost a decade ago. Cost of LNG delivered to NW Europe is about the same as TTF price in June 2021. Europe's TTF jumped up mostly on panic by traders in the first half of 2022. It has never been short on supply even before additional LNG receiving/regassification was installed.


That Central Bank interest rate is 16% is a real economy killer plus banks charging 2.9% over that to keep solvent. What is not mentioned is rate of default on loans. Much of the Russian public relies on payday type loans to buy groceries with their meager pay. How many Russian workers are still employed but with pay suspended for a week or two per month? That is a common practice in Russia from the USSR days.

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And in other news, 2 Roll On Roll Off ships are currently loading another billion dollars worth of military equipment at Corpus Christi this weekend.

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The closest port to the Sierra Depot of old retired equipment for shipments to Europe.

Thoughts and prayers to Russia’s chief ally as their President took a nasty spill in a helicopter today. Sorry for your loss Lima.