re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Never posted isw from yesterday

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Key Takeaways

A senior Ukrainian official warned that Russia can reconstitute itself as a serious threat to Ukraine in the long run despite facing severe force generation problems at this time.

The Kremlin has not yet undertaken the necessary reorganization of its war effort to effectively leverage economies of scale to support large Russian force generation.

Ukrainian assessments confirm ISW’s longstanding assessment that Russia cannot conduct multiple offensive operations simultaneously at this time.

Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly personally approved the arrest of Wall Street Journal correspondent Evan Gershkovich.

The Russian Federal State Security Service (FSB) on April 13 identified the individuals allegedly responsible for assassinating milblogger Maxim Fomin (alias Vladlen Tatarsky).

Russian forces continued limited ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line.

Russian forces continued to make gains in Bakhmut, and continued ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.

Russian forces continue to reinforce and strengthen their positions in southern Ukraine in preparation for a potential Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and his supporters continue to feud with St. Petersburg authorities and advertising companies allegedly obstructing Wagner Group recruitment efforts.

Wagner Group are reportedly training Ukrainian children to use weapons as part of the Russian Young Army Cadets National Movement (Yunarmiya) in occupied Ukraine.

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If any of you baws are at the NRA convention there a seminar about the guns being used by both sides. (11am in Room 134-35) Martin KA Morgan is doing it and I've yet to get bored listening to one of his speeches.

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Turns out that the T-90 tank that sat for a day at Peto's truck stop on I-10 is headed to the Army's Aberdeen Test Center in Maryland.

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That is interesting my first thought was indeed ATC but I would have thought it would have come into one of the many Atlantic ports if that was its destination. However, I know very little about international cargo shipping.

Putin releasing the Pacific fleet ?
The guy doesn’t have a regatta
Why are y’all behind this loser

British Defence Intelligence
INTELLIGENCE UPDATE
UPDATE ON UKRAINE 15 April 2023

On 11 April 2023, the Russian State Duma adopted a law establishing a unified registry of individuals eligible for military service. The key implication of the measure is that in future, the authorities will be able to serve call-up papers electronically, rather than by letter, removing one obstacle which has previously allowed some to dodge the draft.

With individuals' call-up data now digitally linked to other state-provided online services, it is likely that the authorities will punish draft-dodgers by automatically limiting employment rights and restricting foreign travel.

The measures are reported to be coming into force later in the year; they do not specifically indicate any major new wave of enforced mobilisation. Russia is, for now, prioritising a drive to recruit extra volunteer troops. However, the measure is highly likely part of a longer-term approach to provide personnel as Russia anticipates a lengthy conflict in Ukraine.

Isw update

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Key Takeaways

The Kremlin is likely attempting to portray Russia as an equal defense partner with China ahead of Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu’s visit to Moscow from April 16 to 18.

The Kremlin is likely hoping to make itself more attractive to China by launching Russian Pacific Fleet exercises to project Russia’s naval power in the Pacific.

The Kremlin also likely intends to use the Pacific Fleet’s combat readiness checks to attempt to deter further Japanese support for Ukraine ahead of the G7 meeting from May 19 to 21.

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is setting information conditions to exploit a Russian military failure if the planned Ukrainian counteroffensive is successful.

Former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin denied speculations that he is facing charges in St. Petersburg for the discreditation of the Russian Armed Forces – a denial that likely further indicates his protection by unknown siloviki patrons.

Russian elite forces are diluting their combat effectiveness with poorly trained mobilized personnel and volunteers due to high causalities sustained in Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin will likely host his annual June press conference in early June 2023.

The Russian State Duma is intensifying its efforts to censor of Russian cultural figures who fled Russia and criticize the war, likely aimed at encouraging domestic self-censorship.

Russian forces continued limited offensive operations in the Kreminna area as Ukrainian forces targeted rear areas in Luhansk Oblast.

Russian forces continued to advance in Bakhmut and conduct ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.

Russian forces continue to endanger the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) amidst continued Russian efforts to establish control over the ZNPP.

The Kremlin reportedly continues to use private military companies (PMCs) and nationalist networks to support its force generation campaigns.

Russian security personnel continue to arrest Ukrainian citizens under allegations that they associate with claimed illegal formations.

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Didn't really know where else to post but shite going down in Sudan this morning

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Weren't you the one who put up the fake news about the Leopard?

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Yep, that was me..

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On 11 April 2023, the Russian State Duma adopted a law establishing a unified registry of individuals eligible for military service. The key implication of the measure is that in future, the authorities will be able to serve call-up papers electronically, rather than by letter, removing one obstacle which has previously allowed some to dodge the draft.

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A little more detail about what the Russian propagandists are saying about this.
Russian state TV discusses changes to conscription law