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re: Tejas Snow/Ice Storm: 2022 Edition (Wednesday Night and Thursday expected timing)

Posted on 2/1/22 at 1:43 pm to
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
58264 posts
Posted on 2/1/22 at 1:43 pm to
quote:

The new HRRR pink is vvBig

And the next 4 hours left to run will be huge for Memphis.
Posted by OysterPoBoy
City of St. George
Member since Jul 2013
37000 posts
Posted on 2/1/22 at 1:44 pm to
Have they said how many inches to expect in St George?
Posted by trussthetruzz
Marquette, MI
Member since Sep 2020
9236 posts
Posted on 2/1/22 at 1:49 pm to
quote:

how many inches to expect in St George?


Baton Rouge could see a half inch of snow early Sunday morning. Nothing wintry from frontal passage but lingering cold and moisture(?) into the weekend opens the door
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
58264 posts
Posted on 2/1/22 at 1:49 pm to
18z HRRR fresh off the presses:


This post was edited on 2/1/22 at 1:52 pm
Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
40812 posts
Posted on 2/1/22 at 1:50 pm to
Legend are there no concerns for discrete cells along the boundary further along the timeline into SELA / MS?
Posted by H2O Tiger
Delta Sky Club
Member since May 2021
6644 posts
Posted on 2/1/22 at 1:51 pm to
Just texted my buddy in Memphis, he runs a billboard company there and is gonna have not a fun time.

I also moved my DAL-ATL-MSY to Wednesday night from Thursday afternoon. Hoping it's good enough.
Posted by WhuckFistle
Member since Jul 2015
3070 posts
Posted on 2/1/22 at 1:52 pm to
frick. Looks Little Rock is going to get shite on.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
58264 posts
Posted on 2/1/22 at 1:54 pm to
quote:

Legend are there no concerns for discrete cells along the boundary further along the timeline into SELA / MS?

SPC Marginal Risk for Thursday in that area. Looking like a heavy rain event farther North.
Posted by Duke
Twin Lakes, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36143 posts
Posted on 2/1/22 at 1:55 pm to
No. Upper level energy kicks out too fast to see a severe threat outside of the line but there are parameters there for severe stuff in SELA and coastal Miss before the energy really decays.
Posted by tigerbandpiccolo
Member since Oct 2005
49331 posts
Posted on 2/1/22 at 2:01 pm to
I live in a mountainous area of WLR, we were trapped for a few days because of the extreme hills during the storm last year. Never lost power since it was mainly snow but this does not look good or fun with three little kids. Loss of power is my main concern with those temperatures. We have an older, drafty home with 6 foot crawl space under the first floor, so it gets cold fast. Hit up Costco yesterday but now I’m questioning whether I got enough alcohol
Posted by goldennugget
Hating Masks
Member since Jul 2013
24526 posts
Posted on 2/1/22 at 2:05 pm to
It's ridiculous how many people here in DFW are freaking out acting like this is the coming apocalypse.

This storm looks like a standard regular DFW area winter storm, nothing out of the ordinary... its like what happened last year has caused people to go completely mad.

This thing will last less than 24 hours and be done with by Thursday Afternoon. Yet all I see are people hunkering down and acting like they are going to be buried in snow for 3 weeks, blaming ERCOT already, blaming Abbott already, etc.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
58264 posts
Posted on 2/1/22 at 2:05 pm to
Look at the temps near Fayetteville vs SE Kansas.
This post was edited on 2/1/22 at 2:08 pm
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
58264 posts
Posted on 2/1/22 at 2:06 pm to
quote:

its like what happened last year has caused people to go completely mad.

That's exactly what it is, but you can't really blame them. It happens with all major weather events.
Posted by goldennugget
Hating Masks
Member since Jul 2013
24526 posts
Posted on 2/1/22 at 2:08 pm to
quote:

That's exactly what it is, but you can't really blame them. It happens with all major weather events.



I understand but all you have to do is look at the forecast and realize this storm is nothing.

The local meteorologists, give them credit, they are shouting from the rooftops that this is going to be nowhere close to last year and to calm the frick down, but people aren't listening.
Posted by Duke
Twin Lakes, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36143 posts
Posted on 2/1/22 at 2:10 pm to
quote:

I understand but all you have to do is look at the forecast and realize this storm is nothing


Enough ice potential to prepare imo, but for maybe losing power for a couple of days if you get unlucky. Temps wont be as extreme and the duration is sure to be much shorter.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
58264 posts
Posted on 2/1/22 at 2:11 pm to
Ten years on after April 27 and we here in AL/MS still have that with any moderate to high-end severe setup. Most people will automatically expect things to be "....like April 27...."

It is psychological and is both good and bad. People will be hyper aware, but also, people will be hyper aware.
Posted by aggiegeog
Tyler, TX
Member since Feb 2013
51 posts
Posted on 2/1/22 at 2:14 pm to
Eh, roads being iced over for 4 to 5 days and possible widespread power issues from downed lines is major and something we have not seen in this area in quite some time. Hoping that it turns into a sleet and heavy snow event instead which is possible for DFW, but that means worse icing for Central and East Texas. I think people are very justified in wanting to be prepared. Lows in the single digits will make for uncomfortable nights if you don't have power.
Posted by H2O Tiger
Delta Sky Club
Member since May 2021
6644 posts
Posted on 2/1/22 at 2:19 pm to
The storm last year sucked but we just went over to a friends who didnt lose power. Wasn't a huge issue.

I wouldn't be concerned about this one at all if I wasn't flying/trying to fly during the storm.
Posted by tokenBoiler
Lafayette, Indiana
Member since Aug 2012
4556 posts
Posted on 2/1/22 at 2:52 pm to
quote:

Been on the horn with my Memphis friends this morning, suggesting they get some extra supplies because there are catastrophic numbers on a lot of the models for that LR to Memphis/west tenn region

Do you see anything obvious about the other Lafayette (IN)? This seems like the least well-pinned-down forecast for a big event that I can remember here. Some of the Purdue students are anticipating complete apocalypse, local TV meteorologist is saying GFS is overstating.

Me, I just want it to be all snow, whatever amount.
Posted by RummelTiger
Texas
Member since Aug 2004
90817 posts
Posted on 2/1/22 at 3:03 pm to
quote:

Rummy better stock up on milk sandwich supplies


Well, should I still stock up?



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