Football Outsiders: Why Joe Burrow’s Season Is Overrated

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Joe Burrow opened Boxing Day by dropping 525 yards and five touchdowns on the Ravens, and Dak Prescott closed it by torching Washington for 322 yards and four touchdowns in the first half. We were preparing to update our list of the greatest games ever, but as it turns out, neither was even the best game of the year; Prescott was only in fifth place this week. While the two quarterbacks won fantasy playoff games across the country, our statistics don't give them as much credit for feasting on terrible pass defenses, which is exactly what they did on Sunday. In fact, it's what Burrow has been doing all season.

There are other reasons Burrow and Prescott rank lower than you might expect—they also combined for 20 incomplete passes and a half-dozen sacks—but opponent adjustments are the biggest factor holding them down. The Ravens finished Sunday's game with their top three corners and a starting safety out with injuries; they were 30th in pass defense DVOA going into Monday Night Football. They are allowing 8.2 yards per throw and 13.0 yards per completion, ranking last in the league in both categories, and next to last with an interception rate of 1.1%.

Burrow has now thrown 84 passes against the Ravens this year, and they are directly responsible for seven of his 30 touchdowns through the air. He has also thrown 40-plus passes against the Steelers (in two games), Chargers, and Browns, all of whom are in the bottom half of the league in pass defense DVOA. In fact, Burrow has only played two games against teams in the upper half of those rankings: the 10th-place Vikings and 12th-place Packers. He completed better than 70% of his passes and averaged 8.3 yards per throw in those two games, with four touchdowns and two interceptions, though he was sacked eight times. Cincinnati beat Minnesota by a field goal but lost to Green Bay by the same margin. Meanwhile, he has played four games against our bottom three pass defenses: the Jaguars, the Jets, and the Ravens twice. Burrow topped 10.0 yards per throw against those four with a dozen touchdowns and only two interceptions. The Bengals went 3-1, somehow losing to Mike White and the Jets.

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