The eminent impending depression (best case long serious recession)

I know about 5 people on here are going to understand this and I can’t tell you if it will be in 2 years or 10 but the math is simple and it’s not avoidable. When you try to fix a leaky boat with a grenade and not glue it’s always going to sink.

They are going to use interest rates and monetary policy to battle inflation but the real issue is that same one Christ preached about before they murdered him 2,000 years ago -greed specifically corporate greed and the rise and corporate beast that’s now beyond the ability of even the largest countries to control.
So they will attack the middle and working class until it collapses because they serve the Wall Street bankers in all things now. It will not reduce inflation much as it is not the GD cause of it. They are chasing ghost, and will never catch them. I am not going to get into the lagging indicators, the 3 quarter rule, balanced spending etc but essentially they have to make a bunch of educated guesses about what is going to happen when they change rates etc and when your assumptions on what is causing the problem are wrong you have zero chance on getting it right.

Key point if you don’t want to read the article

But the Fed’s focus on inflation—and especially on labor market tightness which Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel earlier this month called “monomaniacal”—may be ignoring some important points behind rising prices. A 2022 study from the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute found that over half of price increases for goods and services could be attributed to larger profit margins among corporations, while only 8% of inflation was tied to higher labor costs.
Siegel told CNBCthis month that since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, worker wages have been rising more slowly than inflation and it was “hard to argue” that labor costs were the main contributor to inflation.
On the Fed’s larger inflation vision, some economists including Mohamed El-Erian have argued that its 2% goal is outdated and reaching it would lead to severe economic harm, while a “higher stable inflation rate” around 3% to 4% might be more appropriate.

I predicted every other fricking financial disaster, over last 30 years so I could be wrong, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Those who know what to do should start to make those moves this year. If not buckle up buttercup it’s going to be a fricking bumpy ride.



Fortune Article on Fed’s Folly