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Started By
Message
Prediction: Saban steps down after 2018
Posted on 12/2/17 at 8:40 am
Posted on 12/2/17 at 8:40 am
I have never been one that thought Saban would ever leave Alabama. No matter who came calling, the NFL, UT, he was never leaving Tuscaloosa.
His entire existence since 2007 has been focused on erasing any memory of his struggles at the NFL level that he so desperately sought for years. The best way to do that was to remain at the juggernaut he built and that came with so many advantages for him to exploit.
He has broken the SEC and reshaped the CFB world. Only once in the past 10 seasons has he lost more than 1 regular season game, and that was seven years ago, winning an incomprehensible 94% of regular season games since 2008. In the past seven years, only once was Alabama not in the playoff or BCS championship. And that was when his historic bid for a three peat was thwarted on the last play of the season in one of the most amazing plays in CFB history, keeping Alabama at the forefront of the conversation even after they were eliminated.
But today, Alabama stands on the verge of being out of the championship conversation entirely. Losing a month of coverage as a championship contender would be a fresh insult to Saban, and far more detrimental to the recruiting prowess he has established than any playoff loss could ever be when the conversation quickly turns to the next season when Alabama is automatically reasserted as a top contender.
There is still the possibility that Alabama will receive yet another reprieve and be gifted a late invite to the playoffs. But the lack of control is likely an unsettling feeling for the coach that thrives on total control of every aspect of the process he has cultivated for over a decade.
With all of the turnover in the coaching ranks of the SEC, there is a new element of uncertainty in the conference as well. After so thoroughly humbling the conference and its familiar coaches for so long, having to evaluate and master an entirely new group of philosophies all at once is just another obstacle that threatens the image of invincibility he has projected for so long.
Saban has a loaded and experienced roster set to run through an offensively forgiving slate of games in 2018 while the new crop of coaches attempt to reshape the cultures at their respective universities. This presents the perfect opportunity to put together an unbeaten final campaign as his lasting legacy as the greatest coach in the modern era before new challengers emerge in 2019.
This decision wouldn't be about fear of any coach in particular. But the simple understanding of the odds that his current pace is simply unsustainable into another decade as the conference landscape changes so drastically and so quickly.
I know this post will be disregarded as wishful thinking by those that bother to finish reading it, but this is coming from someone that always believed Saban was planning to coach Alabama for another decade to pass Bryant in wins at Alabama and win over over a dozen SEC titles, with 10 national championships in reach as well, a feat that would leave him in a realm of the college version of Bill Belichick.
But the unprecedented shakeup and reboot of the SEC will be a game changer for the ultimate control freak and lead him to reevaluate the long term viability of his current situation.
His entire existence since 2007 has been focused on erasing any memory of his struggles at the NFL level that he so desperately sought for years. The best way to do that was to remain at the juggernaut he built and that came with so many advantages for him to exploit.
He has broken the SEC and reshaped the CFB world. Only once in the past 10 seasons has he lost more than 1 regular season game, and that was seven years ago, winning an incomprehensible 94% of regular season games since 2008. In the past seven years, only once was Alabama not in the playoff or BCS championship. And that was when his historic bid for a three peat was thwarted on the last play of the season in one of the most amazing plays in CFB history, keeping Alabama at the forefront of the conversation even after they were eliminated.
But today, Alabama stands on the verge of being out of the championship conversation entirely. Losing a month of coverage as a championship contender would be a fresh insult to Saban, and far more detrimental to the recruiting prowess he has established than any playoff loss could ever be when the conversation quickly turns to the next season when Alabama is automatically reasserted as a top contender.
There is still the possibility that Alabama will receive yet another reprieve and be gifted a late invite to the playoffs. But the lack of control is likely an unsettling feeling for the coach that thrives on total control of every aspect of the process he has cultivated for over a decade.
With all of the turnover in the coaching ranks of the SEC, there is a new element of uncertainty in the conference as well. After so thoroughly humbling the conference and its familiar coaches for so long, having to evaluate and master an entirely new group of philosophies all at once is just another obstacle that threatens the image of invincibility he has projected for so long.
Saban has a loaded and experienced roster set to run through an offensively forgiving slate of games in 2018 while the new crop of coaches attempt to reshape the cultures at their respective universities. This presents the perfect opportunity to put together an unbeaten final campaign as his lasting legacy as the greatest coach in the modern era before new challengers emerge in 2019.
This decision wouldn't be about fear of any coach in particular. But the simple understanding of the odds that his current pace is simply unsustainable into another decade as the conference landscape changes so drastically and so quickly.
I know this post will be disregarded as wishful thinking by those that bother to finish reading it, but this is coming from someone that always believed Saban was planning to coach Alabama for another decade to pass Bryant in wins at Alabama and win over over a dozen SEC titles, with 10 national championships in reach as well, a feat that would leave him in a realm of the college version of Bill Belichick.
But the unprecedented shakeup and reboot of the SEC will be a game changer for the ultimate control freak and lead him to reevaluate the long term viability of his current situation.
Posted on 12/2/17 at 8:42 am to Poor Richard
That's a long post for some shite that isn't likely to happen. More like wishful thinking you are right
This post was edited on 12/2/17 at 8:42 am
Posted on 12/2/17 at 8:43 am to Poor Richard
Ok..
BTW 2018 is probably not the year. Basically replacing the entire defense. However you didn't take the time to research that.
BTW 2018 is probably not the year. Basically replacing the entire defense. However you didn't take the time to research that.
Posted on 12/2/17 at 8:49 am to UltimaParadox
Saban will hopefully be coaching for the next 10 years
Posted on 12/2/17 at 8:53 am to Stephen1979
Doubt he has that many years left. He is 66 now, we are hoping maybe he has 5 years left
Edited since I put the wrong age.
Edited since I put the wrong age.
This post was edited on 12/2/17 at 9:19 am
Posted on 12/2/17 at 8:55 am to UltimaParadox
Well then I hope y'all get Dabo at that point
Posted on 12/2/17 at 8:56 am to UltimaParadox
quote:
2018 is probably not the year. Basically replacing the entire defense
This has been said almost every year for half a decade.
Given the offenses they will face in 2018, the Alabama defense will be just fine.
This post was edited on 12/2/17 at 8:58 am
Posted on 12/2/17 at 8:59 am to Poor Richard
I doubt Saban wins another NC. His age is catching up with him and recruits are taking notice. Happens to the best of them. Bowden, Spurrier, Paterno etc..
Posted on 12/2/17 at 9:00 am to Poor Richard
He is 67. He could retire at any point now and i doubt many people would be surprised.
Posted on 12/2/17 at 9:12 am to Poor Richard
saban is a driven MFER. he may not stop until he strokes out. he's 66. i'd say he coaches until he is 70 for sure. maybe longer.
Posted on 12/2/17 at 9:12 am to Poor Richard
Absolutely no way Saban leaves in the next 3 years unless he wants to spend a few years giving a second be chance at the NFL. He's 66 now and I don't see any way he would quit before 70. With how driven he is and the fact that he seems to be in really good health I would expect him to make it to closer to 75.
Posted on 12/2/17 at 9:15 am to rolltide32
Seriously hope he does stick around til he's 75-80. He's good for the sec from a competition standpoint
Posted on 12/2/17 at 9:17 am to rolltide32
it would not surprise me in the least if he coaches 10 more years until 76. he is that type. the man eats, sleeps, shits, breathes football. He lives in a bubble. It is why he is the best in the business in the college ranks. football IS saban's life. while he is rich i really do not think he has enjoyed all that money vacationing the world laying on a beach for months relaxing. that is not him. he has made HUGE sacrifices with time lost in his life to do this thing called football. but this is what he wants.
This post was edited on 12/2/17 at 9:19 am
Posted on 12/2/17 at 9:53 am to Poor Richard
Not reading all that shite cuz you had a thought. Saban isn't leaving before 70.
Posted on 12/2/17 at 9:54 am to Poor Richard
Long post but I agree Saban is rounding out his career. Age along with increased competition combined with Bama fans attitudes toward a one or two loss season will be enough for him to pack it up for a cushy TV job.
Posted on 12/2/17 at 9:56 am to Poor Richard
Saban and Dabo's current contracts both expire in 2021 at which point Saban will retire and Dabo will come home and the machine will just keep on rolling along.
Posted on 12/2/17 at 10:00 am to Poor Richard
2021
His contract is up and Dabos is up
His contract is up and Dabos is up
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