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Anybody else doing ‘wisdom of the crowd’ algorithms with Twitter to make money?
Posted on 8/19/18 at 1:07 pm
Posted on 8/19/18 at 1:07 pm
So I’ve been reading a lot of the technical papers on the research groups using the Twitter API and sentiment algorithms to bet on sports based on wisdom of the crowd theory: LINK
So far, I have set up some python libraries that grab hashtags and return a positive, negative, or neutral score. My next task is to turn these scores into forecasting game outcomes. I’ve read several other papers that discuss this topic and the most interesting thus far use moving averages much like stock predictions to identify ‘golden’ or ‘death’ cross behavior.
The legalization of sports betting has me really thinking about trying this for a season or two just to see if it works. Anybody else trying this stuff?
So far, I have set up some python libraries that grab hashtags and return a positive, negative, or neutral score. My next task is to turn these scores into forecasting game outcomes. I’ve read several other papers that discuss this topic and the most interesting thus far use moving averages much like stock predictions to identify ‘golden’ or ‘death’ cross behavior.
The legalization of sports betting has me really thinking about trying this for a season or two just to see if it works. Anybody else trying this stuff?
Posted on 8/19/18 at 3:02 pm to castorinho
Why dont you post some of the results you are getting so it can be tracked.
Posted on 8/19/18 at 4:18 pm to castorinho
I mean, I guess I could just trust George Carlin’s comedy routine to make conclusions regarding rigorous mathematical theories describing stochastic processes.
Posted on 8/19/18 at 5:11 pm to CFDoc
quote:
I mean, I guess I could just trust George Carlin’s comedy routine to make conclusions regarding rigorous mathematical theories describing stochastic processes.
You came here to ask TigerDroppings. Watch out where you throw those stones.
Posted on 8/19/18 at 5:12 pm to CFDoc
Did you read the study you posted?
You're not going to be profitable doing this.
Predicting things like elections, in which the public has direct impact is one thing. Using it to predict football games this way is a different story.
Something that would be interesting would be following all players of a team and assigning a "mood" value to their social media posts preceding games and see if translates to an edge, but there's so many players that it would not be an easy task.
Something similar in tennis, especially women's tennis, would be very interesting since there's only one variable.
You're not going to be profitable doing this.
Predicting things like elections, in which the public has direct impact is one thing. Using it to predict football games this way is a different story.
Something that would be interesting would be following all players of a team and assigning a "mood" value to their social media posts preceding games and see if translates to an edge, but there's so many players that it would not be an easy task.
Something similar in tennis, especially women's tennis, would be very interesting since there's only one variable.
Posted on 8/19/18 at 5:55 pm to CFDoc
I don't understand how someone posting a hash tag on Twitter could have any effect on a football line or outcome
But Im just a nobody on Tigerdroppings
But Im just a nobody on Tigerdroppings
Posted on 8/19/18 at 7:53 pm to castorinho
quote:
Did you read
Yes. As well as several other articles from Europe where these analyses have been done for almost a decade now to predict premier league soccer outcomes. I also read a few articles from investment firms using these analyses daily to identify ‘Golden crosses’ before everyone else.
quote:
You’re not going to be profitable
Possibly not, but there’s a lot of tech papers out there that have shown consistent 8-15% returns on soccer games. It’s also shown to perform well on stock predictions LINK
Some Texas professors have gone back and looked at past NFL seasons to see how well this could work under certain circumstances and they were able to show 15% returns LINK
The interesting part of the NFL analyses is that they state it’s not in your best interest to try to predict all 256 games, but rather monitor certain sentiments of underdogs and you can find the lines that show some undervalued dogs that you can jump on before the lines move.
I know this is Tigerdroppings and all but I’ve actually seen intelligent technical and money discussions on here before. I apologize for assuming I could start another.
quote:
Something that would be interesting
I find it interesting how dismissive you were to my original post but are now engaging in the conversation exactly the way I had hoped. Regardless, I agree it would be interesting to monitor the players themselves. Golf would be another good example.
The cool part about all this is it’s free. The python libraries and twitter API costs zero. There are also tons of statistical libraries for python that are free as well.
Posted on 8/19/18 at 9:53 pm to CFDoc
I've been wanting to learn python. How should I start? Any tips to move along quickly?
Posted on 8/20/18 at 7:33 am to Douglas Quaid
You have any other object oriented programming experience or is this a ‘start from scratch?’
Zed Shaw Learn Python the Hard Way is a good read if you’re starting from nothing.
Other recommendations will depend on your experience.
Zed Shaw Learn Python the Hard Way is a good read if you’re starting from nothing.
Other recommendations will depend on your experience.
Posted on 8/20/18 at 8:38 am to CFDoc
I've been casually doing the free code academy python training on and off for a couple of weeks but effectively starting from scratch.
No other real programming experience.
No other real programming experience.
Posted on 8/20/18 at 9:17 am to Douglas Quaid
I like Zed Shaw better than code academy for beginners.
As you start to get the hang of the language, the Mark Lutz books are good references. There's also just the straight docs on the python website.
Also can't forget everybody's favorite, stackoverflow.com
As you start to get the hang of the language, the Mark Lutz books are good references. There's also just the straight docs on the python website.
Also can't forget everybody's favorite, stackoverflow.com
Posted on 12/24/18 at 9:35 pm to castorinho
quote:
You're not going to be profitable doing this.
lol
Posted on 12/27/18 at 8:57 am to CFDoc
Be sure to include input from the refs.
Posted on 12/27/18 at 12:59 pm to Douglas Quaid
Python is a general purpose programming language that is also used for scripting. But python can be used for everything that is done in java.
Both python and java are interpreted during runtime. The term scripting usually means writing code to automate a certain process in a specific environment (like browser).
It's dynamically typed and is advantageous for good string processing features. I utilize Python within a specific OS, not an architecture, additionally (Unix in the case of Perl, Amoeba in the case of Python).
What exactly are you wanting to do with Python once you grasp the elementary basics?
Both python and java are interpreted during runtime. The term scripting usually means writing code to automate a certain process in a specific environment (like browser).
It's dynamically typed and is advantageous for good string processing features. I utilize Python within a specific OS, not an architecture, additionally (Unix in the case of Perl, Amoeba in the case of Python).
What exactly are you wanting to do with Python once you grasp the elementary basics?
This post was edited on 12/27/18 at 1:02 pm
Posted on 12/27/18 at 8:49 pm to CFDoc
The crowd is generally fricking stupid.
Posted on 12/28/18 at 1:03 am to Breauxsif
quote:I was going to do a "technically..." here, but after a little research and a lot of thought, the whole story is a lot more technical than it seems on the surface.
Both python and java are interpreted during runtime.
Java and Python programs have a lot in common as far as how they are executed. Both have an initial step where the source file is compiled to bytecode (python generates .pyc files and java .class files), then a program (the python "interpreter" or java "virtual machine") interprets the bytecode and generates machine code to finally be executed. Both Python and Java have been implemented in various ways, but the stock implementations differ in that Python's compile and interpret steps are combined into one command/program, while Java's are not. So I guess the main difference is just an implementation detail. It's the user experience.
To me, Python leans more toward "interpreted" than Java does because you can mark a Python source file as executable and run it directly as you would any other program. I don't think you can do that with a Java source file. But that's just my interpretation of the word, not really based on any technical reasoning.
The real answer, I guess, is that they are both compiled and they are both interpreted. Both languages compile source code into bytecode, and both interpret the bytecode at runtime. Further, both languages have just-in-time compilers available (Java's stock VM does it I believe, while Python has a couple available I think), which compile some or all of the bytecode down to machine code at runtime. Then you have systems like Android that compile Java to machine code ahead of time upon app install.
That's a lot of words to say basically nothing other than "there's a slight distinction but the whole situation is just fuzzy".
Posted on 12/28/18 at 2:20 am to Korkstand
I write Python scripts everyday at my job. If anything could be called a “scripting language” it would be something just listing user inputs in a batch format - i.e. something like a DOS BAT file. Even that has some extras which make it more than just a saved set of user commands - e.g. the IF and GOTO, FOREACH, etc.
In general a script is something you use to automate tasks, so to answer your question about your “interpreted” rebuttal I typically write a short piece of code intended for a few uses and then thrown away. Not something you’re going to sell, just something to make your own life a little easier. Which also means it’s likely a hack and not designed with future proofing in mind - i.e. no great influence from best practice and code quality.
Within the realm of compiling IoT data, Python is the most clear-cut way to write clear and concise code that aligns with business requirements when leveraging IoT data with my experience in cloud computing.
In general a script is something you use to automate tasks, so to answer your question about your “interpreted” rebuttal I typically write a short piece of code intended for a few uses and then thrown away. Not something you’re going to sell, just something to make your own life a little easier. Which also means it’s likely a hack and not designed with future proofing in mind - i.e. no great influence from best practice and code quality.
Within the realm of compiling IoT data, Python is the most clear-cut way to write clear and concise code that aligns with business requirements when leveraging IoT data with my experience in cloud computing.
This post was edited on 12/28/18 at 4:29 am
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