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re: Someone convince me that Portugal can get a result tomorrow vs. Ghana
Posted on 6/25/14 at 2:39 pm to Billy Mays
Posted on 6/25/14 at 2:39 pm to Billy Mays
quote:
Someone convince me that Portugal can get a result tomorrow vs. Ghana
Well we beat Ghana, and Portugal drew us. So it's pretty fair to say that Portugal can get a result.
1
Posted on 6/25/14 at 2:41 pm to Bho
quote:
Well we beat Ghana, and Portugal drew us. So it's pretty fair to say that Portugal can get a result.
Ghana drew Germany and Portugal got destroyed by Germany... so it's fair to say that Ghana can destroy Portugal
Posted on 6/25/14 at 2:43 pm to Crede15
quote:
The one thing that could help Portugal there is that Ghana's right side (Atsu and whoever the FB is) are pretty wasteful.
Yeah if we are both thinking about Jonthan Mensah - he was/is atrocious.
Posted on 6/25/14 at 2:45 pm to rt3
quote:
Ghana drew Germany and Portugal got destroyed by Germany... so it's fair to say that Ghana can destroy Portugal
To be fair, I'm really not concerned at all. I don't think the match is going to matter. The Germans have no reason to beat us by a lopsided margin. Let's say they get a goal, they can rest and relax, because at worst they go through on a draw. They have no reason to beat us 3 or 4-0. And I'm not sure they could anyways.
Posted on 6/25/14 at 2:45 pm to Billy Mays
It helps that Muntari is out for this match. Pepe is back for this match right? Coentrao is still out injured?
Posted on 6/25/14 at 2:46 pm to castorinho
How the hell is Portugal favored?
Posted on 6/25/14 at 2:50 pm to lowspark12
quote:
How the hell is Portugal favored?
The books tend to overrate Euro teams, which is partially why they've been losing money this WC (the main reason is the obnoxious amount of "over" goals scored tickets cashing). Portugal's FIFA ranking is kind of a joke considered they struggle to even make it to Brazil.
The books have their own power rankings, and it seems like no one has been able to handicap Ghana correctly in the last 3 World Cups. Ghana is an undervalued team from a betting perspective.
Posted on 6/25/14 at 2:51 pm to lowspark12
quote:
How the hell is Portugal favored?
People seem to forget that we fairly easily scored 2 goals on Ghana and led for 90+ minutes against them.
It's just annoying to hear people say we deserved to lose that game. It would not have looked anything like that if we hadn't scored ridiculously early and lost Jozy.
Ghana is good. So are the US, Portugal, and Germany.
Depending on their mindset, I would not be at all surprised to see Portugal win that game.
Posted on 6/25/14 at 2:51 pm to Vicks Kennel Club
quote:
Pepe will be back. Maybe some of their injured guys will return. I think Ronaldo will not go down without a fight.
This. They are getting their red carded guy back. What is the word on their injured players anyway?
As far as Ronaldo goes - he's definitely got the talent to make a key pass or goal at any time as we saw against us.
Posted on 6/25/14 at 2:52 pm to Billy Mays
quote:
The books have their own power rankings
And they aren't in the business to lose money. Obviously upsets happen, but the bookmakers are usually pretty good. Any idea what Vegas has?
ETA: Was Portugal favored at the opening? Obviously odds change as money comes in.
This post was edited on 6/25/14 at 2:53 pm
Posted on 6/25/14 at 2:56 pm to uway
quote:
It's just annoying to hear people say we deserved to lose that game
I definitely don't think we deserved to lose, we scored 2 really quality goals. I would say a draw was probably the "fairest" of outcomes, but soccer isn't fair obviously.
quote:
Ghana is good. So are the US, Portugal, and Germany.
Depending on their mindset, I would not be at all surprised to see Portugal win that game.
Me neither, my eyeballs just haven't seen much quality from Portugal thus far. I know that quality exists, but my gut tells me they may have phoned it in...
This post was edited on 6/25/14 at 3:25 pm
Posted on 6/25/14 at 3:02 pm to Bho
quote:
And they aren't in the business to lose money. Obviously upsets happen, but the bookmakers are usually pretty good. Any idea what Vegas has?
I'm not sure exactly what the consensus was - but if you analyze the pre-tournament odds, you could slot all the teams and create a ranking. It would skew a little based on how tough some of the contender's groups are. I would guess something like, going into this WC:
1. Brazil
2. Argentina
3. Germany
4. Spain
5. Italy
6. France
7. Belgium
8. Portugal
9. Nederlands
10. Chile
Books have been getting pounded by the overs and the lack of ties, because the public hates betting draws and unders.
Posted on 6/25/14 at 3:06 pm to Billy Mays
quote:
Books have been getting pounded by the overs and the lack of ties, because the public hates betting draws and unders.
I'm sure. Is this still on pace to have the most goals in history? I know that all 32 teams scored, which hasn't happened since 98. Forget over/unders and draws, how have they done on setting lines?
Posted on 6/25/14 at 3:22 pm to Bho
I think they've done ok on the traditional money lines. The 3 way line (winner, draw, winner) has been bad for them due to the lack of draws. The draw is the bookmaker's friend typically.
Portugal is laying a full goal vs. Ghana, which seems excessive based on what I've seen out of both teams, I would've expected .5 of a goal at most.
I'm guessing the typical handicapping process goes for these 3rd group games:
1. power rank
2. injuries or suspensions
3. motivation (what team needs what result)
4. current form
Portugal is laying a full goal vs. Ghana, which seems excessive based on what I've seen out of both teams, I would've expected .5 of a goal at most.
I'm guessing the typical handicapping process goes for these 3rd group games:
1. power rank
2. injuries or suspensions
3. motivation (what team needs what result)
4. current form
Posted on 6/25/14 at 4:11 pm to Billy Mays
quote:
CR7 is probably playing @ 70% right now
He is, and he isn't. He looks pretty normal provided he doesn't really have to perform any kind of really explosive movement. He's just not going to beat anyone on his own. If Portugal can get him into positions like the Varela goal and the Benzema goal in the first leg of the Bayern tie, I think that he can be enough of a difference maker to change the game in their/our favor.
Pepe back will obviously help, as well. He's a great player even though he pressed the melt button against Germany.
Posted on 6/25/14 at 4:11 pm to Billy Mays
quote:
Portugal is laying a full goal vs. Ghana, which seems excessive based on what I've seen out of both teams, I would've expected .5 of a goal at most.
Do you know if it opened at this? I agree that a full goal seems high. I just wonder if it opened at .5 and moved to 1.
Posted on 6/25/14 at 5:05 pm to Bho
It's currently .5 a goal... bet down from -1.
Posted on 6/25/14 at 7:04 pm to Billy Mays
quote:
It's currently .5 a goal... bet down from -1.
Sounds better, I really just don't see Portugal wanting to bow out without a win. I really hope they play just good enough to draw.
Posted on 6/25/14 at 9:44 pm to Bho
I am at Vegas and the sports book here has +190 on Ghana and +110 on Portugal. I was surprised the line was skewed towards Portugal.
Posted on 6/25/14 at 9:58 pm to bisonduck
African teams typically choke in situations like tomorrow. Just look at the match between IC and Greece. The gap between those two is much bigger than Portugal/Ghana. African teams are typically poorly coached and lack in the tactical side.
I expect Portugal's best performance and Ghana's worst of the tournament. I really think Portugal wins. Pepe is back and CR7 will play his best match of this Worl Cup.
I expect Portugal's best performance and Ghana's worst of the tournament. I really think Portugal wins. Pepe is back and CR7 will play his best match of this Worl Cup.
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