re: WSJ editorial board: income tax receipts up 8% from last year

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what if April receipts, primarily from tax year 2017, drove the real increase entirely?what if all components reflecting tax year 2018 activity were nominally flat or low, and in real terms slightly negative?

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Individual receipts were down in both June and July, so the April influx may be the reason for the yearly increase so far.

We'll have to wait for a full year from when the tax cuts became effective in Feb 2018 to get a meaningful readout.

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what if April receipts, primarily from tax year 2017, drove the real increase entirely

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Then the author of the article citing withholding would be a liar.

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we do not have a revenue problem

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This cannot be said enough...

Depends what you want to talk about.

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Depends what you want to talk about.

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Ugh. Too much work to think of a subject. Duals off!!!

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Then the author of the article citing withholding would be a liar.

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if that's the implication strictly WRT the tax bill, that'd be dishonest as frick

those tables changed in february. i just checked the treasury numbers, and withholdings alone for Feb-July 2018 are actually down compared to Feb-July 2017. and that's not even adjusting for inflation

i did on page 1

i pulled that from their monthly statements

eta fun fact: if you compare the 17/18 fisc years for the months prior to the withholdings tables change (Oct-Jan), 2018 was up 11% over 2017

How do you do this?

page 6, top couple of lines, each month

Well, I looked at page 6. I'm not sure how you could back out increased economic activity generated by the tax cut, and then estimates receipts based off of the previous tax rate.

Can you explain exactly how one could go about this?

Here is page 6 that you referenced:

Table 4. Receipts of the U.S. Government, July 2018 and Other Periods
[$ millions]
Individual Income Taxes
Withheld 104,792 1,139,465 1,108,379
Presidential Election Campaign Fund (**) 25 26
Other 9,779 535,579 457,934
Total -- Individual Income Taxes 114,572 4,911 109,660 1,675,069 259,919 1,415,150 1,566,339 253,648 1,312,691
Corporation Income Taxes 7,524 3,228 4,296 214,349 48,345 166,004 269,282 36,988 232,294
Social Insurance and Retirement Receipts:
Employment and General Retirement:
Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund:
Federal Insurance Contributions Act Taxes 53,131 ...... 53,131 559,944 ...... 559,944 541,915 ...... 541,915
Self-Employment Contributions Act Taxes 574 ...... 574 30,825 ...... 30,825 31,081 ...... 31,081
Adjustments Attributable to Prior Years-FICA ...... ...... ...... -13,839 ...... -13,839 6,190 ...... 6,190
Adjustments Attrbutable to Prior Years-SECA ...... ...... ...... -1,047 ...... -1,047 -2,126 ...... -2,126
Total -- Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund 53,705 ...... 53,705 575,883 ...... 575,883 577,060 ...... 577,060
Federal Disability Insurance Trust Fund:
Federal Insurance Contributions Act Taxes 12,555 ...... 12,555 132,309 ...... 132,309 128,051 ...... 128,051
Self-Employment Contributions Act Taxes 136 ...... 136 7,286 ...... 7,286 7,344 ...... 7,344
Adjustments Attributable to Prior Years-FICA ...... ...... ...... -3,131 ...... -3,131 1,310 ...... 1,310
Adjustments Attributable to Prior Years-SECA ...... ...... ...... -183 ...... -183 -361 ...... -361
Total -- Federal Disability Insurance Trust Fund 12,691 ...... 12,691 136,281 ...... 136,281 136,344 ...... 136,344
Federal Hospital Insurance Trust Fund:
Federal Insurance Contributions Act Taxes 19,269 ...... 19,269 204,938 ...... 204,938 198,611 ...... 198,611
Self-Employment Contributions Act Taxes 269 ...... 269 15,203 ...... 15,203 15,351 ...... 15,351
Receipts from Railroad Retirement Board ...... ...... ...... 571 ...... 571 606 ...... 606
Adjustments Attributable to Prior Years-FICA ...... ...... ...... -3,971 ...... -3,971 229 ...... 229
Adjustments Attributable to Prior Years-SECA ...... ...... ...... -92 ...... -92 -1,051 ...... -1,051
Total -- Federal Hospital Insurance Trust Fund 19,538 ...... 19,538 216,649 ...... 216,649 213,747 ...... 213,747
Railroad Retirement:
Rail Pension and Supplemental Annuity 318 (**) 317 2,834 3 2,832 2,611 1 2,610
Social Security Equivalent Account 263 (**) 263 1,934 2 1,932 1,816 1 1,815
Total -- Employment and General Retirement 86,515 1 86,514 933,582 5 933,577 931,577 2 931,575
Unemployment Insurance:
Deposits by States 3,146 ...... 3,146 32,230 ...... 32,230 33,017 ...... 33,017
Federal Unemployment Taxes 824 25 800 8,712 99 8,613 8,197 134 8,063
Railroad Unemployment Taxes 33 ...... 33 133 ...... 133 126 ...... 126
Total -- Unemployment Insurance 4,004 25 3,979 41,075 99 40,977 41,341 134 41,207
Other Retirement:
Federal Employees' Retirement--Employee Share 387 ...... 387 3,675 ...... 3,675 3,468 ...... 3,468
Non-Federal Employees Retirement 2 ...... 2 26 ...... 26 29 ...... 29
Total -- Other Retirement 389 ...... 389 3,701 ...... 3,701 3,497 ...... 3,497
Total -- Social Insurance and Retirement Receipts 90,908 25 90,882 978,358 104 978,254 976,415 136 976,278
Excise Taxes:
Miscellaneous Excise Taxes 3,216 407 2,808 27,001 2,495 24,506 26,303 4,588 21,715
Airport and Airway Trust Fund 1,370 ...... 1,370 12,548 11 12,537 11,440 13 11,427
Highway Trust Fund 3,547 43 3,504 33,723 331 33,392 32,039 327 31,712
Black Lung Disability Trust Fund 33 ...... 33 320 ...... 320 333 ...... 333
Total -- Excise Taxes 8,167 450 7,716 73,592 2,837 70,755 70,115 4,928 65,187
Estate and Gift Taxes 1,862 79 1,783 19,494 732 18,761 20,189 782 19,407
Customs Duties 4,252 93 4,159 33,702 1,224 32,477 29,796 1,370 28,427
Miscellaneous Receipts:
Deposit of Earnings, Federal Reserve System 4,683 ...... 4,683 60,258 ...... 60,258 69,135 ...... 69,135
Universal Service Fund 727 ...... 727 7,813 ...... 7,813 7,717 ...... 7,717
All Other 1,361 1 1,359 16,620 23 16,598 28,763 38 28,725
Total -- Miscellaneous Receipts 6,771 1 6,769 84,691 23 84,668 105,614 38 105,576
Total -- Receipts 234,054 8,788 225,266 3,079,254 313,184 2,766,071 3,037,750 297,889 2,739,861
Total -- On-Budget 167,658 8,788 158,870 2,367,090 313,184 2,053,906 2,324,346 297,889 2,026,457
Total -- Off-Budget 66,396 ...... 66,396 712,164 ...... 712,164 713,403 ...... 713,403
Note: Details may not add to totals due to rounding. (**) Less than absolute value of $500,000
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