WSJ Editorial Board: "The Battle of Hormuz is Turning"

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Did you notice the sudden media realization that the oil export pressure is now working against Iran? New reports from tanker-tracking groups confirm what the Trump Administration has been saying: Adm. Brad Cooper and the forces of U.S. Central Command have turned around the battle of the Strait of Hormuz.

Data from Kpler indicate that the seven-day average for oil clearing the Strait is 14.19 million barrels a day, approaching the prewar baseline of 17.13 million. Most of what’s missing are Iranian oil exports stopped by the U.S. blockade. The recent resumption of oil flowing through the Saudi bypass pipeline, followed by accelerating loadings at the port of Yanbu to transit the Red Sea, will unlock more exports.

This is what progress looks like: Iran’s oil is blocked while the world’s oil increasingly gets through. The effect is to reduce pressure on the West and its Gulf allies while Iran must scrounge for money. The regime is rapidly running out of oil already on the sea from before or between blockades, though payments will have a longer lag. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent estimates the Iranians will deliver the last of this oil to China in mid-October.

Meanwhile, Mr. Bessent has been squeezing Iran’s other trade partners as never before. This has been felt most acutely in the United Arab Emirates, which responded by cutting off trade with Iran, and Turkey, which is closing Iranian banks. The region is also closing its skies to Tehran by suspending flights. One by one, Iran is losing its lifelines.

No wonder Iran’s currency set another record low on Tuesday, plummeting past 2.5 million rials to the dollar. The rial began 2018 at 35,000 to the dollar, and 2026 near 1.5 million. It has fallen nearly 140% on an annual basis since the U.S. blockade’s resumption. Iran’s economy is struggling as oil-export revenue dries up and goods become harder to import while sanctions tighten.

Richard Goldberg of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies predicted and then hailed the success of U.S. measures in Hormuz many weeks before most analysts. “Once you understand that this is a military mission, that the numbers cited by Energy Secretary Chris Wright aren’t estimates but are the no-kidding barrel counts reported to the U.S. Navy by ship captains,” he says, “you understand very quickly that open-source tools are wrong and the President is right. We control the Strait of Hormuz.”

That doesn’t mean Iran is finished shooting. Three successful Iranian attacks on ships were reported to the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations Center on Wednesday, and markets are pricing in Iranian escalation. No one should expect the regime to sit idly while it loses its leverage, and an “October surprise” before the U.S. midterm elections may be coming.

Iran may still be able to knock out significant Gulf energy infrastructure. The global diesel shortage persists, leading to surging prices. But Iran’s main goal and boast in this war, seizing the Strait, is being reversed. The challenge now is to sustain the pressure and push the U.S. tactical advantage to accomplish strategic objectives—finishing the nuclear program or the regime itself.

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