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Message
Why is 53 votes surging on betting markets?
Posted on 10/2/18 at 6:24 pm
Posted on 10/2/18 at 6:24 pm
There are sites where you can gamble on how many votes Kav ultimately gets and for some reason 53 has been surging, up 21% today (from 15% to 36%)
It's currently the single most popular choice of any number.
I really don't think 2 Dems will defect but with this movement a lot of people seem to be reading the tea leaves that 2 will. Which two? Manchin and another?
It's currently the single most popular choice of any number.
I really don't think 2 Dems will defect but with this movement a lot of people seem to be reading the tea leaves that 2 will. Which two? Manchin and another?
This post was edited on 10/2/18 at 6:27 pm
13
Posted on 10/2/18 at 6:24 pm to PEPE
Q dropped a 53-47 earlier today. 
Posted on 10/2/18 at 6:25 pm to PEPE
53-47 was posted in the Q thread.. figure that might push it
Posted on 10/2/18 at 6:26 pm to PEPE
If Flake, Collins, and Murkowski are a yes, Manchin and Heidi will join them.
Posted on 10/2/18 at 6:26 pm to PEPE
I’ll take it!
Posted on 10/2/18 at 6:27 pm to PEPE
Q
Posted on 10/2/18 at 6:27 pm to PEPE
If turtle has the votes, Schumer will allow the dems that really need it to vote yes. That’s at least 2 votes.
Posted on 10/2/18 at 6:27 pm to PEPE
Would need more than 2 Democrats. Flake is a flake and I would not put it past Murkowski to vote no.
Posted on 10/2/18 at 6:28 pm to LSU0358
quote:
If Flake, Collins, and Murkowski are a yes, Manchin and Heidi will join them.
There has to be some strategy on the red state Dem part.
If the final vote is going to be 51-49, then them defecting is purely symbolic at that point and changes nothing. The Dem leadership might give a few of the most vulnerable ones permission to vote in favor at that point.
Posted on 10/2/18 at 6:30 pm to beachdude
Murkowski is more likely a yes vote than anyone. She's never won more than 49% of the vote in any of her elections and had to run as an Independent in 2010 after she lost the Republican Primary.
Posted on 10/2/18 at 6:34 pm to SCLibertarian
Murkowski’s brother went to Georgetown Prep.
Posted on 10/2/18 at 6:38 pm to PEPE
I wouldn’t mind seeing 50/50, with Pence swooping in to put the exclamation point on it. The dramatic extra melt inducing effect.
Posted on 10/2/18 at 6:41 pm to PEPE
Wow, who knew a LARP could move the betting markets? Interesting since money people tend to know what is up
Posted on 10/2/18 at 6:42 pm to PEPE
What is the overall likelihood of Kavanaugh's confirmation per the betting markets?
Posted on 10/2/18 at 6:53 pm to TakingStock
71% chance as of now.
Posted on 10/2/18 at 7:07 pm to PEPE
Link?
Posted on 10/2/18 at 7:08 pm to PEPE
Q but it's all a Larp
Posted on 10/2/18 at 7:18 pm to LSU0358
quote:
If Flake, Collins, and Murkowski are a yes, Manchin and Heidi will join them.
Is it not possible for the Republicans to keep their votes in house to force the Dems to vote without knowing the Republiacn outcome? Fat chance with Flake's love affair with Coons but it would be great to force the Dems to vote how they would WITHOUT knowing the outcome already.
Posted on 10/2/18 at 7:22 pm to Bunk Moreland
quote:
Q dropped a 53-47 earlier today.
Nate Silver called 53-47 on the 28th. That is what he thought would happen after the supplemental background check was complete.
LINK
Posted on 10/2/18 at 7:23 pm to the808bass
really?
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