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Why hasn't the stock market completely crashed?

Posted on 4/3/20 at 11:48 am
Posted by Bass Tiger
Member since Oct 2014
46150 posts
Posted on 4/3/20 at 11:48 am
I know it's down approximately 30% from the high but with the continued uncertainty why hasn't the market completely tanked? We're talking 10 million Americans who've recently applied for unemployment benefits. Some experts are saying GDP in the 2nd-4th quarter is going to be a negative range of -10 to -30%. I understand the markets are forward looking 3-6-12 months out but we're not getting any indication from our government experts that a green light for Americans returning to work is anywhere on the economic horizon, that fact alone is truly unsettling uncertainty.

I was watching Fox Business News, they were talking about a minimum of 3-5% of all small businesses currently shut down from the pandemic will not survive and that percentage will become much larger if this economic shutdown continues another 6-8 weeks. I'm currently 35-40% equities, I'm also working so I'm not overly concerned about the market whip saw behavior but some of these folks who have already retired and didn't move their money into safe investments could be in serious trouble if this market drops 50-60-70%. Believe me, a lot of retired folks have been invested 70-80% or more in equities since the financial meltdown because they couldn't make much on fixed income investments and they became convinced that their investments would be fine through normal recessionary downturns......this ain't normal y'all!
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
90653 posts
Posted on 4/3/20 at 11:50 am to
Because Haha money printer go brrrr
Posted by DarthRebel
Tier Five is Alive
Member since Feb 2013
21259 posts
Posted on 4/3/20 at 11:50 am to
We are printing money, no need to right now.

If this goes past April, it could get nasty
Posted by PEPE
Member since Jun 2018
8198 posts
Posted on 4/3/20 at 11:51 am to
Because even if a million people died (most of them elderly/sick) it changes nothing long term economically assuming things eventually go back to normal.

Posted by Bass Tiger
Member since Oct 2014
46150 posts
Posted on 4/3/20 at 11:51 am to
First down vote, someone must be retired and heavily invested in equities or they're a financial adviser.
Posted by NC_Tigah
Carolinas
Member since Sep 2003
123945 posts
Posted on 4/3/20 at 11:51 am to
quote:

Why hasn't the stock market completely crashed?
Worst 1stQ in history
Posted by OchoDedos
Republic of Texas
Member since Oct 2014
34111 posts
Posted on 4/3/20 at 11:52 am to
Circuit breakers. The System won't let itself crash. If the situation became dire they would suspend trading.
Posted by Bass Tiger
Member since Oct 2014
46150 posts
Posted on 4/3/20 at 11:53 am to
quote:

Circuit breakers. The System won't let itself crash. If the situation became dire they would suspend trading.


That's played a part
Posted by Big Scrub TX
Member since Dec 2013
33438 posts
Posted on 4/3/20 at 11:53 am to
quote:

Why hasn't the stock market completely crashed?
A lot of the disorder to date has been in the credit markets. The Fed/UST stepped in with all kinds of "support", but there is chaos in several sectors - mostly in structured credit (mortgage, corporate and ABS). We'll see what the TALF program brings when it finally gets off the ground.

Some credit instruments are trading worse than they did in 2008/09, so in some sense, those markets HAVE completely crashed.
Posted by omegaman66
greenwell springs
Member since Oct 2007
22780 posts
Posted on 4/3/20 at 11:53 am to
quote:

I understand the markets are forward looking 3-6-12 months out but we're not getting any indication from our government experts that a green light for Americans returning to work is anywhere on the economic horizon, that fact alone is truly unsettling uncertainty.


Not true.
Posted by Supravol22
Member since Jan 2011
14415 posts
Posted on 4/3/20 at 11:53 am to
quote:

Why hasn't the stock market completely crashed?


quote:

I know it's down approximately 30% from the high


Posted by cameronml
Member since Oct 2007
1909 posts
Posted on 4/3/20 at 11:53 am to
If everybody needed all of their cash today then the market would completely crash. As an investor who is more concerned about what the market will be 30 years from now, there's no reason to do anything at this point. This is all short term noise when you're talking decades of performance.
Posted by Zach
Gizmonic Institute
Member since May 2005
112495 posts
Posted on 4/3/20 at 11:55 am to
Because the companies you have stock in are probably not going to disappear. IE, if you have oil stock in Exon, Chevron, etc. those companies are not going to shut down and your stock becomes worthless. They won't shut down because Circle K is not going to fill the void as a drilling company when this is over.

Companies go away if what they do becomes obsolete. Like Martha Stewart Inc.
Posted by Bass Tiger
Member since Oct 2014
46150 posts
Posted on 4/3/20 at 11:56 am to
quote:

quote: Why hasn't the stock market completely crashed?

A lot of the disorder to date has been in the credit markets. The Fed/UST stepped in with all kinds of "support", but there is chaos in several sectors - mostly in structured credit (mortgage, corporate and ABS). We'll see what the TALF program brings when it finally gets off the ground. Some credit instruments are trading worse than they did in 2008/09, so in some sense, those markets HAVE completely crashed.


Yes, I think a lot of fragile underlying economic conditions are going to surface if this country remains in shutdown for another month or two.
Posted by mostbesttigerfanever
TD platinum member suite in TS
Member since Jan 2010
5016 posts
Posted on 4/3/20 at 11:56 am to
quote:

Because even if a million people died (most of them elderly/sick) it changes nothing long term economically assuming things eventually go back to normal.
sort of.

If this goes past April, we're going to need bank intervention far beyond 2008
Posted by Champagne
Already Conquered USA.
Member since Oct 2007
48389 posts
Posted on 4/3/20 at 11:57 am to
Stay tuned!

Posted by arcalades
USA
Member since Feb 2014
19276 posts
Posted on 4/3/20 at 12:00 pm to
the op is full of economy information. the stock market is not the economy.
Posted by canyon
Member since Dec 2003
18405 posts
Posted on 4/3/20 at 12:01 pm to
Do you want it to crash?
Like to 0?
SMH
Posted by CelticDog
Member since Apr 2015
42867 posts
Posted on 4/3/20 at 12:03 pm to
its a betting mechanism.

people are betting some sectors do better than ever.

muh toilet paper.

and some bet that ordinary times will restore well run companies to top of money pyramid.


Posted by Janky
Team Primo
Member since Jun 2011
35957 posts
Posted on 4/3/20 at 12:06 pm to
Some heavy hitters posting in here.
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