re: Why are we doing this??

I've been back and forth on this... actually been following it before most people back in January. At first I was scared to death by the reports out of China...then by mid February I thought it was a joke, convinced myself no chance that was going to happen here...now im back to being pretty damn rattled again. I REALLY wanna believe y'all that this is overblown bullshite...but like I said today rattled me pretty badly.

This is a long read...but if you have 5-10 minutes it's a great fairly to easy understand 101 breakdown of what this thing is, what it's doing and where, and where we are quite possibly headed from here.

LINK

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Hogwash. They didn’t bake in with H1N1.

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They did! They were lower though. But this one is a different animal.

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We might see something approaching an 8% drop and not have our health services overwhelmed.

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You're going to see a very sharp V shaped recovery on the graphs when this blows over. The trick is getting the right leg on that V to closely match the left one. The course of action we've take offers us a better opportunity for that.

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Not when I can look at their projections and compare them to real life and say, “Uh, no, idiot.”

Projecting 18M cases in Texas when China is leveling off at 80k doesn’t even pass the laugh test.

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China enacted extremely strict social distancing and quarantine, which, and follow me here, worked.

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You could have people bathe with infected bats and you wouldn’t get to 18M infected.

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CDC estimated 3 times that amount got H1N1 back in 2009.

You're an idiot.

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So, how many people do you think know the real story?

Seems a hell of a thing to be able to keep under wraps.

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Probably only some of the leaders in China know most of the story. They would know if it was an escape from the bioresearch facility in Wuhan, the military bioresearch facility outside of Wuhan, of if it was from the wet market. They would also know if it was an intentional release. The other governments would probably have some intelligence info from China and possibly some DNA analysis on the virus. My wife is Chinese and there are several rumors going around China - it was engineered to kill old people and released to fix their equivalent to SS, it was released in HK to kill the protestors and got back to Wuhan, it was released to reduce the population in China.

The only way to tell if it is a modified virus is to sequence the DNA and compare it to other viruses that we have data on. Usually, modifications are done by replacing a segment or a string of segments of the DNA in one virus with a segment from another virus or just adding a segment. They should be able to look at other viruses to see if they are able to find matches. If they find matches, it may tell them if it is likely done as research, work on a vaccine, or as a bioweapon as the goal.

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In Texas?

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Over 6 mil.

I think you moved your decimal point, data ranger.

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I think you moved your decimal point, data ranger.

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Texas is about 1/10th of the nations population, you seem surprised that they were roughly 1/10th of the estimated cases.

No wonder all your hot takes are shite.

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Lol it's 6000 confirmed cases and 1900 deaths from H1N1 in TX.

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That would give H1N1 about a 30% mortality rate. Obviously your numbers are off.

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Lower bound estimates exceed that tremendously should we do nothing. Millions would likely need hospitilization, and triage become an ugly mess when we exceed 1 million in this country.

Like it or not, those are ugly numbers,

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There is no basis world wide to support this.

I think we give up the fight re: numbers man.

People have obviously made up there minds. And like I said, when in 4 months the numbers are miniscule compared to these "estimates", they will point to the hysteria as what saved the world.

Win/win for them

My hope is, in a week or two we can start to reverse course on the shut downs and quarantines. We could over come that financially.

We can't easily over 2-3 months if this shite