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1
Posted on 5/31/26 at 1:41 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
No. Obviously, Iran is currently a drag. Likewise, the onshoring benefits of tariffs were NEVER going to immediate.
So what you mean is people are asking, "Daddy, daddy, are we there yet? Are we there yet, daddy?"
Ding ding ding ding dingggggg!!!
That’s the issue with most. Short term pain is inevitable when undoing the global communist growth accomplishments since Woodrow Wilson our first socialist president
Posted on 5/31/26 at 1:46 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
I bet $50 bucks it would be Bunk
Well, maybe you can skate, because it was bunk.
I guess I missed him.
Posted on 5/31/26 at 1:46 pm to CrystalPreserves
quote:
I respect the time you’ve put into it.
I just think there’s an important difference between ‘I’ve developed a deeply informed conviction’ and ‘the matter is largely settled.’
Those are not quite the same thing.
You said mine was a "very confident view", so I explained how that happened. Any prediction about future events is obviously an opinion. If a doctor sees a patient on a ventilator with pulmonary edema and pneumonia, on dialysis, drips of inotropic agents and vasopressors, liver failure and heart failure, he might predict with some confidence that the outlook is very poor. That doesn't mean the matter is "settled", it means the situation is dire.
I'm confident our economic situation is dire, because I recognize the pathology of our both our economic and political dysfunction. People can and do completely disagree with my assessment, insist that there's no need for drastic or painful measures, but that denial only increases my confidence that the situation is dire.
This post was edited on 5/31/26 at 1:57 pm
Posted on 5/31/26 at 1:50 pm to IMSA_Fan
quote:
(vs 186k in the Biden admin),
Break this down for us
Posted on 5/31/26 at 1:51 pm to wdhalgren
quote:
No, we're not. We have more debt, in relative and absolute terms than most of the first world, and we run massive trade deficits to boot. In other words, we're the dependent party. We're dependent on them to support our consumption and our currency. If they stop holding dollars, dollar based debt, or buying our assets, which they absolutely will at some point as our debt balloons and the Fed intermittently monetizes it in increasing amounts, then the dollar is toast. Eventually, like every other creditor in history, they will say "No mas", or their currencies will follow (or lead) ours down the tube. No other first world country of note has our lethal combination of massive, rapidly increasing debt and foreign dependency for consumption. Our negative $30 trillion dollar net international investment position is a millstone that our creditors carry, but saying they will never stop accumulating more short of drowning is pure hubris
Spot on. Most Americans think we can’t lose our reserve currency status but history says otherwise.
quote:
I told you there are no optimal solutions, just painful solutions. It's not a gotcha, it's a fact. The fact that some other countries will share that future pain is no consolation.
This is the cold hard truth
Posted on 5/31/26 at 1:53 pm to wdhalgren
[quote]You said mine was a "very confident view", so I explained how that happened. Any prediction about future events is obviously an opinion. If a doctor sees a patient on a ventilator with pulmonary edema and pneumonia, on dialysis, drips of inotropic agents and vasopressors, liver failure and heart failure, he might predict with some confidence that the outlook is very poor. That doesn't mean the matter is "settled", it means the situation is dire.
I'm confident our economic situation is dire, because I recognize the pathology of our both our economic and political dysfunction. People can and will completely disagree with my assessment, insist that there's no need for drastic or painful measures, but I'm confident that they're wrong.[/quote]
I 100% agree with you.
I'm confident our economic situation is dire, because I recognize the pathology of our both our economic and political dysfunction. People can and will completely disagree with my assessment, insist that there's no need for drastic or painful measures, but I'm confident that they're wrong.[/quote]
I 100% agree with you.
Posted on 5/31/26 at 1:54 pm to wdhalgren
quote:
. In other words, we're the dependent party.
Update: this is wrong
quote:
We're dependent on them to support our consumption and our currency.
They are dependent on us to maintain our level of consumption and our currency (as they have no replacement)
quote:
If they stop holding dollars, dollar based debt, or buying our assets, which they absolutely will at some point as our debt balloons
This is where your argument fails. Where are they going to put that money? There aren't any better countries or currencies to invest in.
That is the point of me establishing our relative dominance over the world, largely in part due to this system that's being criticized.
quote:
I told you there are no optimal solutions
Total collapse of humanity on earth is a bit more than a "suboptimal solution"
Posted on 5/31/26 at 1:56 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
In what way?
Forcing redistribution from more productive economic endeavors to less productive economic endeavors, ultimately.
Trading high end tech or services for making widgets is a bad trade.
quote:
That viewpoint massively discounts, or completely ignores, long-term consumer hazards associated with predatory business/trade practices.
Which party do your liberal buzzwords apply to, in this context?
Posted on 5/31/26 at 1:57 pm to Sweep Da Leg
quote:
Most Americans think we can’t lose our reserve currency status but history says otherwise.
For that to happen there has to be a replacement.
There are currently no currencies CLOSE to even being in the discussion.
Posted on 5/31/26 at 2:12 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:If you have to ask, its probably you.
Which party do your liberal buzzwords apply to, in this context?
Long-term consumer hazards associated with predatory business/trade practices is neither liberal nor conservative; it is an economic fact.
Posted on 5/31/26 at 2:14 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
cheap, stable money builds factories
No.
Demand and profitability builds factories. Nationalized trade practices, targeted subsidies and predatory pricing by international counterparties do just the opposite.
100% correct
Posted on 5/31/26 at 2:17 pm to NC_Tigah
The most basic and sensible plan to get our nation back on track.
The TDS idiots that allow their simple, short sighted and easily manipulated brains to be deluded by Marxist propaganda is the singe biggest threat to our nation.
The TDS idiots that allow their simple, short sighted and easily manipulated brains to be deluded by Marxist propaganda is the singe biggest threat to our nation.
Posted on 5/31/26 at 2:18 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
They are dependent on us to maintain our level of consumption and our currency (as they have no replacement)
quote:
This is where your argument fails. Where are they going to put that money? There aren't any better countries or currencies to invest in.
Ah yes, the "they can't survive if they don't allow us to run a perpetually increasing tab" argument. It's a fallacy built on recency bias. The dollar hasn't failed yet, so it never will. Sort of like Rep Al Green; Our trade deficits aren't an economic emergency because they've never been one before.
The upshot of your argument is that our foreign vendors are our slaves, bound to make and sell us things that we can't afford without continually diluting our currency, selling off pieces and parts, and shedding jobs. That's the picture of a dying corporation, borrowing money, issuing stock, liquidating assets and continuing to blow the proceeds, rather than face painful austerity. Eventually the creditors and vendors take the writeoff, or they wait too long and destroy themselves.
This post was edited on 5/31/26 at 2:45 pm
Posted on 5/31/26 at 2:20 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
for a nation that cannot manufacture, mine, ship, or refine its needs gradually cedes its strength—and sovereignty—to others.
For years, on this very forum, I've stated multiple times that a country which does not produce its own goods will eventually become the bitch to those who produce for them.
It's about time Bessent caught up.
Posted on 5/31/26 at 2:20 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
Trading high end tech or services for making widgets is a bad trade.
If that's your understanding of Bessent's message and Trump's strategy, you more of an idiot than I ever imagined!
Posted on 5/31/26 at 2:53 pm to wdhalgren
quote:
the "they can't survive if they don't allow us to run a perpetually increasing tab" argument.
There is no real "tab" with other countries. Most of our debt is owned by Americans.
quote:
It's a fallacy built on recency bias. The dollar hasn't failed yet, so it never will.
This is a strawman
That is not the argument
Posted on 5/31/26 at 2:57 pm to lake chuck fan
quote:
If that's your understanding of Bessent's message and Trump's strategy, you more of an idiot than I ever imagined!
The math doesn't work, otherwise.
Where is the money going to come from to pay the artificially increased salaries for the inefficient manufacturing?
This manufacturing moved offshore because it was too expensive and not profitable. China is actually facing this today, too. They're losing market share in lower-level manufacturing to poorer countries who offer lower salaries. China's economic/SES growth has made their labor too expensive, too (and it's drastically cheaper than our labor)
How are we going to compete with the labor savings that Bangladesh, Vietnam, and poor African countries offer? It will require subsidizing it, either via tax/spend policies or bureaucratically forcing higher prices creating the redistribution.
Posted on 5/31/26 at 3:21 pm to KCT
quote:
Well, maybe you can skate, because it was bunk.
---
I guess I missed him.
Posted on 5/31/26 at 3:38 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
There is no real "tab" with other countries. Most of our debt is owned by Americans.
Sure there's a tab. If we run a trade deficit, we send more currency out than comes in. We currently send out an xss trillion dollars and growing every year. Those xss dollars are our IOU's, held by foreigners as currency or dollar based debt.
Meanwhile, our massive govt and private debt is increasingly unserviceable, which requires intermittent monetization and sub market value interest rates from the Fed, aka monetary debasement. Eventually foreign holdings of dollars and dollar based debt become hot potatoes because of steady devaluation, so they get dumped onto the Forex market or the bond market. The running tab is being closed out and those foreign held dollars and dollar debt are coming home by the trillions every year. The inflation rate is about to go vertical.
Dollar dumping on Forex --> US exchange rate falls, US import prices rise. US debt dumping --> US bond prices fall, US interest rates rise, debt defaults rise. The Fed has to increasingly step into the bond market, dollar devalues further. Next option for foreign vendors, dump those xss dollars into US real estate --> inflation in US real estate, real estate becomes unaffordable due to high prices and unaffordable loans, we're back to 2007, and on the road to another banking crisis and more debt monetization.
This is the cycle of unpayable debt, it destroys the value of your currency at home and abroad. Velocity of money rises as monetary inflation rises. Once the domestic population starts to anticipate inflation, your currency is done.
This post was edited on 5/31/26 at 3:53 pm
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