Well...real or puffed up BS, job numbers = no rate cut

And now we wait to see what the revisions show

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The Biden administration keeps pumping out high job numbers (see the revisions) which is not what Powell wants to see.

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There's been LOTS of speculation (not entirely unjustified) that JPow will drop rates regardless of anything outside of an extreme inflation growth, just to help Biden and the Dems in November.

From his actions (as opposed to his words), I don't think that's going to be the case. Yes, he's stated the desire for three cuts this year (which the market wildly interpreted as six - lmfao) and has stayed on the optimistic end of his rhetoric, but rates haven't been raised. In fact, one of the Fed chairs this week was speaking strongly on holding onto the pause for the rest of the year.

I'm still of the same belief I was going into Q4 of last year: we need at least another quarter-point hike. The continued stickiness of inflation proves my point.

Based on the trending of the numbers and the time of year, IF there's a rate cut this year, it won't happen until the September meeting. More likely, as consumers get out and about more and as refineries move over to summer blends, pump prices are going to rise and that's going to drive inflation upward (along with the continued strong job creation in healthcare, government and leisure/hospitality) to the point where we may see another hike well before any cuts.

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Those numbers get revised down almost every month.

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Sometimes yes, sometimes no. While February has been revised down 5k (from 275k to 270k), January was revised upward BIGLY (up 27k from 229k to 256k).

While Feb was down, it was by such a small amount as to be negligible, especially when weighed against expectations.

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They shouldn't eyen report the number until they know the final tally.

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That's why they are called "initial" reports. The media glosses over that, touting them as concrete and that muddies the waters for most people. All that said, I don't necessarily disagree with you.

Hiring illegals to cut the grass shouldn't be included.

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The market is already unhooked from reality. Why do they even care about rates at this point? It’s all play money.

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The US added over $800 billion of debt in the 1st quarter........that's encouraging.

LIES again.

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The market is already unhooked from reality. Why do they even care about rates at this point?

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I feel like I've been saying this for a long, long time.

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January was revised upward BIGLY (up 27k from 229k to 256k).

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This is strange. In March they stated the following:

The department cut 124,000 payroll gains from the 353,000 jobs initially reported for January. The revised total was just 229,000 .

So January was first reported as 353,000 jobs.

Then in March they revised it DOWN 124,000 to 229,000

Now this month revised again - Up 27,000

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The US added over $800 billion of debt in the 1st quarter........that's encouraging.

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Exactly. Interest rates aren't a magic bullet. Especially when the government is dumping trillions of dollars into the economy.