- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Using 2020 data and/or recent STATE polls, show us what Swing States Trump could win ...
Posted on 7/27/23 at 12:50 pm to Marcus Aurelius
Posted on 7/27/23 at 12:50 pm to Marcus Aurelius
Can I use 2016 data as well? The amount of decrease in 3rd party vote totals from 2016 to 2020 for AZ, GA, MI, PA, and WI is larger than Biden's margin of victory. 3rd party candidates are an unknown for 2024, and RFK as a 3rd party could destroy the Dems. Also, can the Dems duplicate the amount of non-in-person votes in 2024, or can they motivate them to vote in person at a higher level than 2020?
What does DeSantis offer to a 2020 Biden voter that would make them switch, other than he's not Trump?
What does DeSantis offer to a 2020 Biden voter that would make them switch, other than he's not Trump?
This post was edited on 7/27/23 at 1:58 pm
2
Posted on 7/27/23 at 1:02 pm to Marcus Aurelius
As long as we are excluding Public Opinions Strategies polls (that Never Back Down PAC paid for), because youre not going to get the result you think your are
Posted on 7/27/23 at 2:34 pm to CubsFanBudMan
quote:
The amount of decrease in 3rd party vote totals from 2016 to 2020 for AZ, GA, MI, PA, and WI is larger than Biden's margin of victory.
I did not know this. Is there a reason?
quote:
Also, can the Dems duplicate the amount of non-in-person votes in 2024, or can they motivate them to vote in person at a higher level than 2020?
If they cheated in 2020, I'm thinking their operation would just get more efficient in 2024.
Posted on 7/27/23 at 3:54 pm to CDawson
quote:
You just can't make this stuff up.
Sure you can. You just did.
Are you saying that these vote dumps were for Biden and that Trump got no votes?
How about a link for any of them?
Posted on 7/27/23 at 4:10 pm to POTUS2024
That is one of the best posts I've ever seen on TD. IF we can have these kinds of "conversations" the GOP might have a chance to win.
Posted on 7/27/23 at 4:13 pm to POTUS2024
Another good post. There could also be a tie IF there was a third party candidate. That actually might be Trumps best chance IMO.
But, I don;t see it being that close ... and will look at the numbers closer and post.
But, I don;t see it being that close ... and will look at the numbers closer and post.
Posted on 7/27/23 at 4:19 pm to CubsFanBudMan
Despite what many post on here, a third party candidate could have an impact as it does not take many votes in a couple of states to have an impact. But, so far, the only serious discussion of third party has been No Labels and they only intend to put up a candidate IF it is Biden vs Trump. I'm not convinced of that. We're a heart attack, or fall, away from Prez Kamala.
Posted on 7/27/23 at 4:19 pm to RobbBobb
I proved that WRONG already. There are plenty of polls you don't like when it comes to the states that matter.
Posted on 7/27/23 at 5:04 pm to POTUS2024
Arizona 11 EVs
Georgia 16 EVs
Wisconsin 10 EVs
Pennsylvania 20 EVs
Nevada 6 EVs
Virginia 13 EVs
Looking at those states, there are no clear updated unbiased, nationally recognized, polls in AZ, GA or NV.
In Wisconsin there is:
Jun.8-13
913 RV
Marquette University Law School
Biden 49%
DeSantis 47%
Biden +2 (INSIDE THE MARGIN OF ERROR)
Biden 52%
Trump 43%
Biden +9
CLEARLY DeSantis in MUCH BETTER shape in Wisconsin. Trump cannot win in Wisconsin.
In PA, Quinnipiac did a JUNE Trump vs Biden poll, but not DeSantis vs Biden. Surprisingly, they who Trump +1. This is a state that elected a mentally ill person over Trump's hand picked candidate. Hard to conclude anything there.
... Let's take a look at Virginia:
Trump has NO chance with Biden + 16 in the most recent poll in May.
May 14-23
678 A
Roanoke College
Biden 54%
Trump 38%
Biden +16
Youngkin would win easy in VA, and the last poll with DeSantis was a +5 for DeSantis.
THE VERY BEST I CAN SEE TRUMP DOING is 268 ON A GOOD NIGHT. That is with him taking PA and GA. There is not enough evidence that he could win those two.
EV Map:
LINK
Georgia 16 EVs
Wisconsin 10 EVs
Pennsylvania 20 EVs
Nevada 6 EVs
Virginia 13 EVs
Looking at those states, there are no clear updated unbiased, nationally recognized, polls in AZ, GA or NV.
In Wisconsin there is:
Jun.8-13
913 RV
Marquette University Law School
Biden 49%
DeSantis 47%
Biden +2 (INSIDE THE MARGIN OF ERROR)
Biden 52%
Trump 43%
Biden +9
CLEARLY DeSantis in MUCH BETTER shape in Wisconsin. Trump cannot win in Wisconsin.
In PA, Quinnipiac did a JUNE Trump vs Biden poll, but not DeSantis vs Biden. Surprisingly, they who Trump +1. This is a state that elected a mentally ill person over Trump's hand picked candidate. Hard to conclude anything there.
... Let's take a look at Virginia:
Trump has NO chance with Biden + 16 in the most recent poll in May.
May 14-23
678 A
Roanoke College
Biden 54%
Trump 38%
Biden +16
Youngkin would win easy in VA, and the last poll with DeSantis was a +5 for DeSantis.
THE VERY BEST I CAN SEE TRUMP DOING is 268 ON A GOOD NIGHT. That is with him taking PA and GA. There is not enough evidence that he could win those two.
EV Map:
LINK
This post was edited on 7/27/23 at 5:17 pm
Posted on 7/27/23 at 5:09 pm to Marcus Aurelius
Biden won't be the nominee. Only DeSantis or Haley could beat Newsom imo
Posted on 7/27/23 at 5:19 pm to SirWinston
I agree on all points. And I would not be shocked if Youngkin gets into the race after a Va Special Session.
This post was edited on 7/27/23 at 5:50 pm
Posted on 7/27/23 at 5:32 pm to Chet Donnely
So, it turns out that in almost 24 hours, only one Trump supporter came up with anything and NONE came up with how Trump could win.
Always Trumpers are not about winning, they are part of Cult46 following a 3 time loser towards being a 4 time loser.
Got it.
Always Trumpers are not about winning, they are part of Cult46 following a 3 time loser towards being a 4 time loser.
Got it.
Posted on 7/27/23 at 6:43 pm to CDawson
quote:
Mathematical and statistical impossibility is evidence
people play hell to defend such wordy affirmations when we get to the numbers.
Posted on 7/27/23 at 8:02 pm to Marcus Aurelius
quote:
So, it turns out that in almost 24 hours, only one Trump supporter came up with anything and NONE came up with how Trump could win.
Unless the current polls are skewed, it really is amazing that Trump is behind Biden, considering how awful Biden is - this has to speak to the recoil that people experience due to his personality.
Posted on 7/27/23 at 8:10 pm to Marcus Aurelius
quote:well you need to start with the 2020 base of about 69 million of Bidens voters, or 69/81sts of the starting point
Anyone? Anyone?
THEN
you take the deterioration of support of the Khazarian/shitepants stooge
FOLLOWED by
Fractal ballot checking
COMBINED with
all of the steps of the election being scrutinized at about 250% of that of 2020 concentrating about 1000% more election scrutiny in the biggest cheating regions
sounds like a doable plan..
Shouldn't interfere with your tuck tail style on here at all, but gives Americans a chance for proper representative government..
Otherwise, remember King George?
Posted on 7/27/23 at 8:23 pm to JJJimmyJimJames
Thanks for summing that up.
Posted on 7/27/23 at 8:25 pm to Marcus Aurelius
Trump aint winning 2024, he will cry that it was rig and present 0 evidence and yall will still support him and cry "its his turn" in 2028
Posted on 7/27/23 at 8:26 pm to aggressor
quote:
There is no path.
I exist within a pretty conservative friend circle, family, and workplace, and I really don’t know anyone who WANTS him to be the nominee.
Most would likely hold their noses and vote for him, but he has overstayed his welcome for a significant percentage of lifelong conservative voters and is loathed by the left and center.
He’s a bad candidate if you want to win. There will be no need for cheating.
This post was edited on 7/27/23 at 8:28 pm
Posted on 7/27/23 at 8:31 pm to POTUS2024
Yep. Thought Hilary was the worst ever, but Biden 2023/2024 might be the worst DEM Potus candidate in memory. In my post above, I only posted the few national polling orgs that have done state polls and left off those that could be paid to poll. Hopefully those will pick up after the debates.
"Unless the current polls are skewed, it really is amazing that Trump is behind Biden, considering how awful Biden is - this has to speak to the recoil that people experience due to his personality."
Pretty much crickets from the Trump supporters re his path to victory.
"Unless the current polls are skewed, it really is amazing that Trump is behind Biden, considering how awful Biden is - this has to speak to the recoil that people experience due to his personality."
Pretty much crickets from the Trump supporters re his path to victory.
Posted on 7/27/23 at 9:10 pm to Marcus Aurelius
No you didnt. You Ronbois constantly lie about everything
On 538 the latest poll in GA by the Premise group has Trump +4. Also Cygnal has Trump +1
On 538 the latest poll in AZ by the Prime group has Trump +4. Rasmussen has Trump +11
Nevada Newsmakers poll has Trump +8 in NV
On 538 the latest poll in PA by Quinnipiac has Trump +1, the Prime group has Trump EVEN
Those states get Trump to 287 EVs.
On 538 the latest poll in GA by the Premise group has Trump +4. Also Cygnal has Trump +1
On 538 the latest poll in AZ by the Prime group has Trump +4. Rasmussen has Trump +11
Nevada Newsmakers poll has Trump +8 in NV
On 538 the latest poll in PA by Quinnipiac has Trump +1, the Prime group has Trump EVEN
Those states get Trump to 287 EVs.
Page 2 of 3
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News