- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
Using 2020 data and/or recent STATE polls, show us what Swing States Trump could win ...
Posted on 7/26/23 at 10:41 pm
Posted on 7/26/23 at 10:41 pm
and how that would translate into a General Election win over Biden.
... this thread shouldn't last long. Will I get anything other than posts not related to the question ... and down votes?
UPDATE - About 24 hours and NO Always Trumpers came up with a path for Trump to win.
Here is the BEST TRUMP CAN DO - based on the data today...
EV MAP:
LINK
... and that is giving him the benefit of the doubt (winning PA and GA) at this point.
... nothing from new board member ChumLeeVol? Nothing from national board pollster JJ? nor ... RobbBobb? Stout? MOmentOFTruth87? BBONDS?
Anyone? Anyone?
LINK
... this thread shouldn't last long. Will I get anything other than posts not related to the question ... and down votes?
UPDATE - About 24 hours and NO Always Trumpers came up with a path for Trump to win.
Here is the BEST TRUMP CAN DO - based on the data today...
EV MAP:
LINK
... and that is giving him the benefit of the doubt (winning PA and GA) at this point.
... nothing from new board member ChumLeeVol? Nothing from national board pollster JJ? nor ... RobbBobb? Stout? MOmentOFTruth87? BBONDS?
Anyone? Anyone?
LINK
This post was edited on 7/27/23 at 8:34 pm
17
Posted on 7/26/23 at 10:44 pm to Marcus Aurelius
quote:
and how that would translate in to a General Election win over Biden.
... this thread shouldn't last long
Damn. Xiden supporters are dragging this board under.
Posted on 7/26/23 at 10:46 pm to Marcus Aurelius
The other 3 pretend meatball supporters haven’t started enough threads today, or you just feeling left out?
Posted on 7/26/23 at 10:53 pm to Marcus Aurelius
Let me get right on that homework for you, boss
Posted on 7/26/23 at 10:57 pm to Chet Donnely
Y'all are proving me right so far. Surely there will be ONE Always Trumpers with some numbers to show his path to victory in the General Election. That should not be hard to do for the current GOP leader, right?
... I guess I should go to bed and check back in the morning.
... I guess I should go to bed and check back in the morning.
This post was edited on 7/26/23 at 10:59 pm
Posted on 7/26/23 at 11:51 pm to Marcus Aurelius
Or go play tummy sticks with your 3 alters
Posted on 7/26/23 at 11:52 pm to Marcus Aurelius
"this thread shouldn't last long"
Oh, you savior!
Oh, you savior!
Posted on 7/27/23 at 12:10 am to Marcus Aurelius
Show US what voters Ron would win over what DJT would win? Ron is super right. I love it but swing voters don't. He is already carrying the moniker of the anti gay guy.
So tell me, if liberal DJT can't win over voters from the other side, how the frick do you expect Desantis to even have a chance?
So tell me, if liberal DJT can't win over voters from the other side, how the frick do you expect Desantis to even have a chance?
Posted on 7/27/23 at 12:56 am to 10thyrsr
quote:
He is already carrying the moniker of the anti gay guy.
The Rs need to get a pro LGBTQ candidate. Who that?
Posted on 7/27/23 at 1:13 am to Marcus Aurelius
Final was Biden 306 Trump 232
Trump needed 38 more to win.
Now, assuming Trump's awful personality and moronic personnel decisions don't destroy him, and he's not in prison...
States that seem likely that Trump either won in 2020 or could win in 2024 based on popular sentiment:
Arizona 11 EVs
Georgia 16 EVs
Wisconsin 10 EVs
Penn 20 EVs
Nevada 6 EVs
That's a total of 63 EVs.
I think I remember a bit of red wave going on in NV, let's say there are 6 EVs there for Trump. Not many EVs here but if Trump doesn't take PA, then he must get all the others listed above, including NV. Lost NV by 2.4%. I don't see any other blue state that is even a remote possibility of flipping.
If the fraud governor in AZ lays low and doesn't create too many problems, AZ might be tough to win. Biden only won by 0.4% though. It should go red, but who knows, considering the shenanigans in Phoenix. Say it's a toss up.
WI was 0.8% differential for Biden, and I would think that as horrible as Biden is, Trump can get 1% or more this time. That's 10EVs
GA was 0.3%, same logic as above, I think Trump would take it, and get 16 EVs
PA was 1.2% differential for Biden. Trump won in 2016 by 0.7% and PA had that one area that kept sending in more votes all night long. You would think people would be tired of Biden and they'll need to find a lot of votes for Biden in 2024. This one seems impossible to call. There is no way the Dems lose in PA, IMO. They are probably printing off ballots and filling them in already. I'm taking this one off the board.
So, I see a definite gain of 32 EVs for Trump. Not enough.
Either win PA and it's a lock, or lose PA and win all of the others. That's the only path. I really can't see how he wins PA. The natural margin will be close and I have every confidence that Dems will cheat like crazy in PA to put them over the top.
MI went Trump in 2016 by 0.2%, and that's another 16 EVs. That state seems to have gone further blue. Not sure that will be in play. Off the board.
Electoral count in 2016 was the same, with Trump winning.
In 2020 the following states went from red to blue: WI, MI, AZ, GA, PA. No states flipped from blue to red.
Total margin in those 5 states that flipped was
Biden 12040605
Trump 11761839
Trump lost by 278,766
Trump needs an avg of about 56,000 votes in each state.
Biden got 50.59% of that vote total.
These numbers are skewed a bit by MI - the biggest margin of victory for Biden.
For the states Trump needs to win, NV is the only one that he lost by more than 0.6%. Smaller state, and he needs about 35,000 votes to win, to cover the 2.4% differential. The other states differentials were 0.4%, 0.6%, 0.3%. The 2024 election might be decided by a 0.4% differential, across 4 states.
If Trump were to only get these three back (AZ, GA, WI), he would be 1 EV short. He must get those 6 EVs in NV or find another state to flip, which I don't see anywhere.
AZ, WI, GA, NV - that is the path, and I think it's the only path.
Trump needed 38 more to win.
Now, assuming Trump's awful personality and moronic personnel decisions don't destroy him, and he's not in prison...
States that seem likely that Trump either won in 2020 or could win in 2024 based on popular sentiment:
Arizona 11 EVs
Georgia 16 EVs
Wisconsin 10 EVs
Penn 20 EVs
Nevada 6 EVs
That's a total of 63 EVs.
I think I remember a bit of red wave going on in NV, let's say there are 6 EVs there for Trump. Not many EVs here but if Trump doesn't take PA, then he must get all the others listed above, including NV. Lost NV by 2.4%. I don't see any other blue state that is even a remote possibility of flipping.
If the fraud governor in AZ lays low and doesn't create too many problems, AZ might be tough to win. Biden only won by 0.4% though. It should go red, but who knows, considering the shenanigans in Phoenix. Say it's a toss up.
WI was 0.8% differential for Biden, and I would think that as horrible as Biden is, Trump can get 1% or more this time. That's 10EVs
GA was 0.3%, same logic as above, I think Trump would take it, and get 16 EVs
PA was 1.2% differential for Biden. Trump won in 2016 by 0.7% and PA had that one area that kept sending in more votes all night long. You would think people would be tired of Biden and they'll need to find a lot of votes for Biden in 2024. This one seems impossible to call. There is no way the Dems lose in PA, IMO. They are probably printing off ballots and filling them in already. I'm taking this one off the board.
So, I see a definite gain of 32 EVs for Trump. Not enough.
Either win PA and it's a lock, or lose PA and win all of the others. That's the only path. I really can't see how he wins PA. The natural margin will be close and I have every confidence that Dems will cheat like crazy in PA to put them over the top.
MI went Trump in 2016 by 0.2%, and that's another 16 EVs. That state seems to have gone further blue. Not sure that will be in play. Off the board.
Electoral count in 2016 was the same, with Trump winning.
In 2020 the following states went from red to blue: WI, MI, AZ, GA, PA. No states flipped from blue to red.
Total margin in those 5 states that flipped was
Biden 12040605
Trump 11761839
Trump lost by 278,766
Trump needs an avg of about 56,000 votes in each state.
Biden got 50.59% of that vote total.
These numbers are skewed a bit by MI - the biggest margin of victory for Biden.
For the states Trump needs to win, NV is the only one that he lost by more than 0.6%. Smaller state, and he needs about 35,000 votes to win, to cover the 2.4% differential. The other states differentials were 0.4%, 0.6%, 0.3%. The 2024 election might be decided by a 0.4% differential, across 4 states.
If Trump were to only get these three back (AZ, GA, WI), he would be 1 EV short. He must get those 6 EVs in NV or find another state to flip, which I don't see anywhere.
AZ, WI, GA, NV - that is the path, and I think it's the only path.
Posted on 7/27/23 at 1:25 am to POTUS2024
AZ and GA are lost to Trump. He has crapped all over the McCain voters which make up a critical 5-10% in that state and in GA he has crapped all over Kemp and destroyed his brand by telling people to stay home in the Senate Runoffs and then backing Herschel.
There is no path.
There is no path.
Posted on 7/27/23 at 1:35 am to aggressor
quote:
AZ and GA are lost to Trump. He has crapped all over the McCain voters which make up a critical 5-10% in that state and in GA he has crapped all over Kemp and destroyed his brand by telling people to stay home in the Senate Runoffs and then backing Herschel.
There is no path
He crapped on McCain back in 2015 yet still won AZ by 3.5%. I think he would have a great chance in AZ if the election was held today. There were clearly a lot of shenanigans in Phoenix and he lost the state by 0.4%. A 4.0% change from one election to another is pretty robust. He only needs to make a 0.5% change. I think it's in play for sure.
In 2016 he won GA by over 5%. He has really stepped on his crank there, but I think the state leans red, overall. It's just a question of whether or not he's burned too many bridges. It's in play, I believe.
But, you make a good point about how he is his own worst enemy. If you are right, then there is absolutely no path.
Posted on 7/27/23 at 1:36 am to aggressor
quote:
AZ and GA are lost to Trump. He has crapped all over the McCain voters
Posted on 7/27/23 at 2:01 am to Nonetheless
I have to amend things a bit - if Trump got AZ, GA, WI, that puts him at 269, and would have Biden or whoever also at 269.
If there is a tie, then the House votes and decides who becomes President. Each state has to vote as one, and in 2020 if Trump could have pulled AZ, GA, WI - he would have won the election as there were more states controlled by Republicans for the newly elected Congress. This House vote would have taken place just after the new Congress was sworn into office. Even though Dems had more representatives, Republicans controlled more states.
The Senate would choose the Vice President.
In 2020 we could have gotten Trump as President and Harris as VP.
In 2024 if there is a tie, I would expect Republicans to have the edge in state delegations again, and I'm sure Lindsey and the gang will manage to lose the senate again, so we'll get the Dem as VP.
If there is a tie, then the House votes and decides who becomes President. Each state has to vote as one, and in 2020 if Trump could have pulled AZ, GA, WI - he would have won the election as there were more states controlled by Republicans for the newly elected Congress. This House vote would have taken place just after the new Congress was sworn into office. Even though Dems had more representatives, Republicans controlled more states.
The Senate would choose the Vice President.
In 2020 we could have gotten Trump as President and Harris as VP.
In 2024 if there is a tie, I would expect Republicans to have the edge in state delegations again, and I'm sure Lindsey and the gang will manage to lose the senate again, so we'll get the Dem as VP.
Posted on 7/27/23 at 4:10 am to POTUS2024
VA was another state that Trump was winning handily until the wee morning showed up and the vote dumps began.
VA had vote dumps of 119,295 for Biden at 9:56 pm and followed that with 230,559 at 2:17 am then finished Trump off by posting 124,137 at 4:00 am. VA didn't get as much notoriety as the other states but the frickery was just as bold there as in other states.
The amount of votes Biden got in multiple states (100's of thousands) is a statistical impossibility yet no one seems to care.
Wisconsin posted a single vote dump of 118,216 votes for Biden at 3:42 am that just happened to be exactly enough to edge Trump in there as well.
In a 49 minute span in Illinois, Biden received 603,082 votes to pull ahead of Trump. Mathematically, this is an impossible amount of votes to add in that timeframe.
Michigan, Biden losing but at 6:31 am the morning after the election, he somehow managed to get 135,290 votes dumped at the same time to win.
Georgia, surprise, surprise, Biden receives 119,811 votes in a single dump at 1:32 am to overcome Trump and take the state.
You just can't make this stuff up. "BUT WHERE IS THE EVIDENCE", the filth screams. Mathematical and statistical impossibility is evidence, it is all right in front of you and no one cares. If this is allowed to happen again, Trump, or anyone else the filth doesn't want in office, cannot win.
VA had vote dumps of 119,295 for Biden at 9:56 pm and followed that with 230,559 at 2:17 am then finished Trump off by posting 124,137 at 4:00 am. VA didn't get as much notoriety as the other states but the frickery was just as bold there as in other states.
The amount of votes Biden got in multiple states (100's of thousands) is a statistical impossibility yet no one seems to care.
Wisconsin posted a single vote dump of 118,216 votes for Biden at 3:42 am that just happened to be exactly enough to edge Trump in there as well.
In a 49 minute span in Illinois, Biden received 603,082 votes to pull ahead of Trump. Mathematically, this is an impossible amount of votes to add in that timeframe.
Michigan, Biden losing but at 6:31 am the morning after the election, he somehow managed to get 135,290 votes dumped at the same time to win.
Georgia, surprise, surprise, Biden receives 119,811 votes in a single dump at 1:32 am to overcome Trump and take the state.
You just can't make this stuff up. "BUT WHERE IS THE EVIDENCE", the filth screams. Mathematical and statistical impossibility is evidence, it is all right in front of you and no one cares. If this is allowed to happen again, Trump, or anyone else the filth doesn't want in office, cannot win.
Posted on 7/27/23 at 4:46 am to Marcus Aurelius
Who knows how it will shake out, but people posting general elections polls that show trump beating Biden aren’t looking at state polls.
And that’s all that matters.
I see almost no conceivable way that trump can win.
And as the days go by, I less and less believe it will be Biden he’s running against.
I say this not as someone who hates trump, I don’t like him but would rather him than Biden, but simply as I see the reality of the situation.
And that’s all that matters.
I see almost no conceivable way that trump can win.
And as the days go by, I less and less believe it will be Biden he’s running against.
I say this not as someone who hates trump, I don’t like him but would rather him than Biden, but simply as I see the reality of the situation.
Posted on 7/27/23 at 5:33 am to Marcus Aurelius
Here is my data. 2016. Now you show me how someone who can't even win his base in a primary has any shot?
Posted on 7/27/23 at 12:32 pm to CDawson
quote:
VA was another state that Trump was winning handily until the wee morning showed up and the vote dumps began.
VA had vote dumps of 119,295 for Biden at 9:56 pm and followed that with 230,559 at 2:17 am then finished Trump off by posting 124,137 at 4:00 am. VA didn't get as much notoriety as the other states but the frickery was just as bold there as in other states.
The amount of votes Biden got in multiple states (100's of thousands) is a statistical impossibility yet no one seems to care.
Wisconsin posted a single vote dump of 118,216 votes for Biden at 3:42 am that just happened to be exactly enough to edge Trump in there as well.
In a 49 minute span in Illinois, Biden received 603,082 votes to pull ahead of Trump. Mathematically, this is an impossible amount of votes to add in that timeframe.
Michigan, Biden losing but at 6:31 am the morning after the election, he somehow managed to get 135,290 votes dumped at the same time to win.
Georgia, surprise, surprise, Biden receives 119,811 votes in a single dump at 1:32 am to overcome Trump and take the state.
You just can't make this stuff up. "BUT WHERE IS THE EVIDENCE", the filth screams. Mathematical and statistical impossibility is evidence, it is all right in front of you and no one cares. If this is allowed to happen again, Trump, or anyone else the filth doesn't want in office, cannot win.
It was all so shady. So many locations.
Posted on 7/27/23 at 12:32 pm to Marcus Aurelius
With or without election fraud?
Posted on 7/27/23 at 12:34 pm to Marcus Aurelius
well if the democrats don't cheat, then I would think that Trump would run away with the election.
Page 1 of 3
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News